NHL Odds, Betting Notes, & Picks For December 2

In this article, I’ll outline the most noteworthy odds, news, and betting notes from the marquee games from Tuesday’s hefty 10-game NHL slate, and I’ll also offer up my best bet of the night.

Best bet—Maple Leafs vs Panthers: Under 6.5 Goals -110

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers will meet for the first time Tuesday since the Panthers eliminated Toronto in seven games during last year’s Eastern Conference semi-final. Though both teams have played a surprisingly high-event style of hockey this season, both head coaches certainly strive for defensive accountability first and foremost, and to worry about creating high-danger scoring chances second.

The Maple Leafs have been a train wreck defensively this season, and that’s the most obvious concern with this bet, but is also the reason we are getting a high total of 6.5 for what should be an ultra-competitive divisional showdown with both teams already fighting for their playoff lives.

Maple Leafs games have started to trend towards lower-scoring recently, which is no surprise given the way that head coach Craig Berube envisions his team playing and the fact that Joseph Woll has been in tremendous form since returning to the lineup.

Over the last seven games, Toronto’s matchups have featured an average combined total of 5.71 goals per game. It employs a tactical style that centers around limiting true defensive breakdowns and not driving possession. That may prevent it from ever being a true defensive juggernaut, but it should prove more effective with Woll currently in tremendous form than it did during his absence.

With Eetu Luostarinen, Matthew Tkachuk, and Aleksander Barkov sidelined, keeping the Panthers in check is a much more reasonable task than it was when these teams met last postseason, but I’m not convinced the Leafs will author a lofty offensive output in this matchup, either.

The Panthers have allowed 3.41 xGA/60 over the last 10 games, which is a slightly worse than average rate. In this critical matchup versus a rival Leafs side though, I’m happy to bank on the idea that Paul Maurice’s side will bring a sharper defensive performance than we have typically seen of late.

The underlying numbers and results this season suggest a total of 6.5 is reasonable in this spot, but I think this is a good spot to bet into the narrative that a rivalry matchup featuring teams led by Berube and Maurice does not project to be overly high scoring. At -120 or better, I see value in backing the under.

Boston Bruins @ Detroit Red Wings

Bruins moneyline odds	+160
Red Wings moneyline odds	-190
Game total	Over 5.5 goals (-125), Under 5.5 (+105)
Time	7:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• The second leg of a home-and-home between these Atlantic Division combatants. The Bruins won Saturday’s matchup 3-2 in a shootout, but the Red Wings led 15-5 in high-danger scoring chances and, prior to the shootout, certainly appeared to be the better team.
• The Bruins will remain without David Pastrnak and Charlie McAvoy in this matchup, arguably two of the team’s most important skaters.
• The Bruins are certainly capable of stealing another matchup in which they are heavily outplayed Tuesday, as they will hold a significant edge in goal if Jeremy Swayman is to start, as the Red Wings have confirmed that John Gibson will start in goal. Swayman leads all goaltenders with a +19.6 GSAx rating in 17 appearances this season.

Ottawa Senators @ Montreal Canadiens

Senators moneyline odds	-115
Canadiens moneyline odds	-105
Game total	Over 6 goals (-115), Under 6 (-105)
Time	7:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• The second meeting of the season between these Atlantic Division rivals. The Canadiens won the previous matchup in overtime, 4-3, on November 1st.
• It may not be a trend worth putting much weight into, but the Canadiens hold reverse splits with a record of just 6-5-1 on home ice compared to a record of 7-3-2 on the road.
• Brady Tkachuk has recorded zero points in his first two games back in the lineup and has yet to score a goal this season. He’s had 20 shots on goal in his first five games of the year.
• Samuel Montembeault will start in goal for the Canadiens. He’s been ineffective so far this season, playing to an .864 save percentage and 3.49 GAA in 13 appearances.

Tampa Bay Lightning @ New York Islanders

Lightning moneyline odds	-140
Islanders moneyline odds	+120
Game total	Over 6 goals (-110), Under 6 (-110)
Time	7:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• The Lightning have won seven straight games and are now heavily favoured to win the Atlantic Division, which appears more than fair given that none of the other seven teams appear overly likely to hit the 100-point mark.
• Though it hasn’t mattered yet, the Lightning’s injury report still features numerous key names, including Brayden Point, Victor Hedman, Ryan McDonagh and Erik Cernak.
• J.J. Moser was an analytical darling prior to being acquired by the Lightning, but it’s still surprising that he’s been so dominant this season. His underrated play is a massive reason that Tampa Bay has fared so well with numerous key pieces missing from the blue line.
• Kyle Palmieri will miss 6-8 months following knee surgery. He has been an effective skater this season, with 18 points in 25 games on top of solid two-way play.
• Andrei Vasilevskiy served as the backup in Saturday’s matchup versus the New York Rangers, so it’s a safe bet that he will start in this matchup. Vasilevskiy is currently priced as the second favourite to win the Vezina Trophy (+300), having played to a +13.6 GSAx rating in 18 appearances this season.

Calgary Flames @ Nashville Predators

Flames moneyline odds	+100
Predators moneyline odds	-120
Game total	Over 5.5 goals (-120), Under 5.5 (+100)
Time	8:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• The greater portion of both fanbases is probably hoping to lose this matchup, as the 31st and 32nd ranked teams square off. Nashville will leapfrog Calgary in the standings with a regulation win.
• Calgary is just 5-10-2 on the road, while Nashville is 5-8-2 on home ice.
• The Flames did pretty well throughout the daunting Tampa Bay, Florida, and Carolina road trip, playing to a record of 1-1-1. They are 5-3-2 over the last 10 games.
• Jonathan Marchessault remains day-to-day with injury, but from a handicapping perspective his status is not overly relevant, as his play has been highly disappointing this season.
• Matthew Wood has been one of few bright spots for the Predators this season. The rookie has put up seven goals and 11 points in 18 games.

Minnesota Wild @ Edmonton Oilers

Wild moneyline odds	+125
Oilers moneyline odds	-150
Game total	Over 6 goals (-115), Under 6 (-105)
Time	9:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• The Oilers will play on home ice for the first time since being humiliated 8-3 by the Dallas Stars last Tuesday. Edmonton was able to bounce back with a convincing 4-0 win over the Seattle Kraken on Saturday, but the Wild certainly provide a much more formidable test.
• Jake Walman participated in the morning skate but will not return to the lineup in this matchup. Walman was fantastic for the Oilers last season, and his absence has certainly contributed to the team’s disappointing start.
• Ryan Nugent-Hopkins recorded a goal and an assist in his return to the lineup Saturday in 17:41 of time-on-ice. Nugent-Hopkins skated as the team’s third-line centre and should prove to be a massive upgrade over Adam Henrique in that role moving forward.
• Jesper Wallstedt has been confirmed as the Wild’s starting goaltender. In a small sample of just nine games, he has, on a per-game basis, been the most effective goaltender in the NHL this season with a .938 save percentage and +7.3 GSAx.

Vancouver Canucks @ Calgary Flames

Canucks moneyline odds	+265
Avalanche moneyline odds	–330
Game total	Over 6.5 goals (-110), Under 6.5 (-110)
Time	9:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• As you would expect, the Avalanche are the largest favourite on the board tonight at -330. They are 10-0-2 on home ice this season and hold a league-leading +48 goal differential.
• On the Spittin’ Chiclets podcast, Ryan Whitney compared this year’s Avalanche to the 2022-23 Boston Bruins. Aside from their record, I actually think it’s a pretty terrible comparison. That Bruins team performed unsustainably well in close games and was widely viewed as worse than their record, while this year’s Avalanche have simply been historically dominant all over the ice and are entirely dominating the opposition in all aspects of the game. They are already down to +400 to win the Stanley Cup, and will likely enter the postseason as one of the shortest favourites in recent memory.
• Nathan MacKinnon and Gabriel Landeskog missed Monday’s practice and are listed as day-to-day with illness. Valeri Nichushkin and Gavin Brindley will miss this matchup for the Avs.
• The Canucks are still without a laundry list of NHL regulars, including Conor Garland, Nils Hoglander, Thatcher Demko, Teddy Blueger and Filip Chytil.
• He’s not going to get much credit because of the team’s horrid results, but Elias Pettersson has been in excellent form following a disappointing start to the year, having recorded 11 points over the last 12 games while receiving some of the toughest usage of any skater in the league and playing alongside a fairly modest winger tandem of Evander Kane and Jake DeBrusk.

Chicago Blackhawks @ Vegas Golden Knights

Blackhawks moneyline odds	+235
Golden Knights moneyline odds	–290
Game total	Over 6 goals (-120), Under 6 (+100)
Time	10:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• Carter Hart is expected to make his season debut for the Knights. In three AHL appearances this season, Hart has played to a 3.07 GAA and .839 save percentage.
• The Knights have already lost eight games combined via 3-on-3 and the shootout. Personally, I don’t think it’s worth knocking a team’s power-rating down over that, but the important thing to consider is that oddsmakers see it the same way and have generally priced the Knights like a highly formidable side, so there hasn’t seemed to be much value buying into the idea that the Knights are better than their record suggests.
• The Blackhawks have come down to Earth with a record of 4-4-2 over their last 10 games and hold a 46.14% expected goal share in that span. Spencer Knight does not seem to be getting enough credit for carrying a team that still looks pretty bad to solid results, and I may have been foolish to bet on a goaltender on a bad team winning the Vezina, even if the price has actually come down slightly since I wrote the play up.
• Knights captain Mark Stone has recorded at least one point in all nine games he’s played this season and has 16 points total.