NHL Best Player Prop Bets For December 2

Join Canada Sports Betting’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL player prop bets available from Tuesday’s 10-game slate.

Best bet-Drake Batherson Over 0.5 Points: -110

Oddsmakers don’t seem to be giving Batherson enough credit in pricing him at close to even money to record a point in a favourable matchup versus the Montreal Canadiens Tuesday. Batherson has recorded at least one point in 63% of games this season, totalling 21 points in 22 games.

Batherson also recorded at least one point in 59.7% of games played last season, finishing with 68 points in 82 games.

So looking at it from the least nuanced perspective, backing Batherson at -110 to record a point over the last two seasons would have been a profitable play, given its hit rate of close to 60% and implied probability of 52%.

Based on his expected usage in Tuesday’s game, as well as the Canadiens’ recent play, -110 appears to be a good price for this matchup in particular. Over the last 10 games, the Canadiens have allowed 4.2 goals against per game and 3.61 xGA/60, which is the sixth-highest mark in the NHL in that span.

The Canadiens have confirmed that Samuel Montembeault will start in goal in Tuesday’s matchup, and though Montembeault was expected to be the team’s number-one netminder this season, he’s been outperformed quite significantly by Jakub Dobes thus far. Montembeault enters this game with an .864 save percentage and -3.4 GSAx rating in 13 appearances.

Batherson remained in his regular roles on the Ottawa Senators’ top line and top power-play unit in Sunday’s matchup versus the Dallas Stars.

Watching Batherson’s offensive skillset, it doesn’t seem all that surprising that he’s been close to a point-per-game player this season, and he does hold strong underlying offensive metrics as well. Considering that this is a good matchup for production, a price of -110 for Batherson to record a point suggests that oddsmakers are taking a somewhat blatant stance that he is not likely to continue at the same rate that we have seen over the last two years, and I’m not in agreement.

Best bet-Brock Nelson Over 1.5 Shots on Goal: -130

The Colorado Avalanche have without question been the best team in the NHL this season, sporting a record of 18-1-6 with an absurd +48 goal differential and a record of 10-0-2 on home ice. Nathan MacKinnon is the Hart Trophy favourite, while Cale Makar could also easily end up being a nominee, which is generally garnering many of the headlines regarding the team.

However, relative to last year, the greatest reason the Avalanche have been so much better is the effectiveness of their bottom three lines. A matchup at home versus the Vancouver Canucks looks like an appealing time to target a prop involving a skater further down the lineup card in Nelson, who should skate in some very winnable matchups Tuesday.

Nelson enters off a four-point performance versus the Canadiens. He’s put up six shots over the last two games, from a total of 12 attempts on goal. Nelson’s overall shot volume has been down this season, which is surprising considering his shot volume historically and the fact that the Avalanche have tilted the ice quite heavily in his minutes.

With Valeri Nichushkin sidelined due to injury, Nelson has become the primary shooter on the Avs’ strong second line, playing alongside Gabriel Landeskog and Ross Colton. In 47.9 minutes of play at even strength, Colton, Landeskog, and Nelson have generated 3.51 xGF/60.

The Canucks have allowed 30.11 shots against per 60 over the last 10 games and been outplayed quite heavily in playing to a 45.35% expected goal share. Elias Pettersson’s line has hung in respectably while handling the bulk of the minutes versus opposing superstars, while the same can be said for Quinn Hughes’s pairing on the back end.

Head coach Adam Foote will mainly attempt to employ those units versus MacKinnon’s line, leaving Nelson’s unit with the opportunity to dominate the Canucks’ soft depth units.

Nathan MacKinnon and Gabriel Landeskog are both day-to-day with illness. Though their absences would leave Nelson to handle tougher minutes with less help, we would certainly live with that given what would likely be improved usage.

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