The Winnipeg Jets are 0-2-0 in two games since finding out that reigning Hart Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck would miss four-to-six weeks and will look to right the ship in a tough spot versus a Washington Capitals side that has been in good form of late. I’m hopeful that tonight’s matchup could feature enough offence to help our four-leg same game parlay get home at +490.
Let’s break down our same game parlay at bet365 for this exciting NHL matchup that consists of four legs and prices out at +490:
- Tom Wilson Over 0.5 Points (-155 straight bet odds)
- Aliaksei Protoas Over 0.5 Points (+120 straight bet odds)
- Kyle Connor Over 0.5 Points (-230 straight bet odds)
- Mark Scheifele Over 0.5 Points (-200 straight bet odds)
Nick’s Jets/Capitals SGP
Legs 1 and 2 – Wilson/Protas 1+ Points Each
While our parlay has four legs, we will break down the two correlated linemate point stacks at once, as the same thought process goes into liking both Wilson and Protas to record a point.
Over the last handful of games, head coach Spencer Carbery has used a new-look second line composed of Wilson, Protas and Justin Sourdif. The three have shown extremely strong chemistry, with each piece bringing some important elements to the table. In 66.9 minutes of even-strength play together, Wilson, Protas, and Sourdif have generated 5.56 xGF/60, which is the highest mark in the NHL among any trios to play over 50 minutes together this season.
The Capitals’ newly formed second trio is not only dominating in terms of underlying metrics either; they have outscored opponents 6-1 and scored 5.38 goals per 60 where it counts.
Wilson leads all Capitals’ skaters with 23 points this season and has recorded six points over the last five games. He should have a good chance of remaining productive for the time being, playing on a second line that has looked fantastic together thus far, and that will skate in some very winnable matchups Wednesday versus a Jets side that has not defended overly well this season.
After recording 66 points in 76 games last season, Protas has been less productive this year with 14 points in 23 games. However, he’s recorded a point in four of the last five games, and to no surprise, his improved production seems to revolve around his placement onto what has been a highly effective second line.
The only prop involving Sourdif that is widely available is backing him to score at +500. By no means would I be opposed to adding that in if you really want to get spicy because the 23-year-old has looked fantastic of late, but my preference would be targeting a point or over 1.5 shots on goal, and unfortunately those markets are not available.
The Jets have allowed 3.37 xGA/60 over the last 15 games, which is the 14th-highest mark in the NHL. Over the last two seasons, the general consensus is that they are a fairly average defensive team, and that Hellebuyck’s otherworldly play helps to hide that fact. Neal Pionk’s absence from the second pairing certainly hurts the Jets’ defensive upside and should improve the chances of the Capitals’ second line staying hot.
Legs 3 and 4 – Connor/Scheifele 1+ Points Each
A major reason the Jets have been so successful over the last two regular seasons despite fairly modest chance creation numbers is the clinical offensive play offered from their dynamic duo of Scheifele and Connor, who have combined for 53 points in 21 games this season.
The correlation between the two is tremendous, as they skate together on the top line and top power-play unit. They have both gotten a point in 17 of the Jets’ 23 games played this season, and both have not gotten a point in each of the same four games.
The Capitals are solid defensively, but not to the extent that I want to pass on a stack that has hit in 17 of 23 games yet is still priced at -120 (price for both Scheifele and Connor to record a point).
The Capitals have allowed 3.30 goals against per game over their last 10 matchups and become a slightly better target for Scheifele and Connor to produce as backup Charlie Lindgren will start this game instead of Vezina Trophy-favourite Logan Thompson.
Lindgren is better than his .889 save percentage and 3.14 GAA suggest, but there’s obviously still a drop off between him and Thompson.
Another factor that could help Connor and Scheifele produce in this matchup is the fact that the Capitals hold the third-worst penalty kill in the league, with a success rate of just 72.6 percent. Led by Connor and Scheifele, the Jets power play has been quite effective once again this season, ranking seventh league-wide with a success-rate of 23.9%.