NHL Odds, Betting Notes, & Picks For November 26

In this article, I’ll outline the most noteworthy odds, news, and betting notes from the marquee games from Wednesday’s monster 15-game NHL slate, which will lead into a league-mandated off-day Thursday, and I’ll also offer up my best bet of the night.

Best bet—Canadiens vs Mammoth: Mammoth Moneyline -140

As expected, the Montreal Canadiens were able to get right with a critical 5-2 win on home ice in Saturday’s matchup over the rival Toronto Maple Leafs. My interest in betting on the Canadiens to win that game revolved much more around where the Leafs were at, as opposed to a belief that the Canadiens had looked overly impressive of late.

The Canadiens are just 3-4-3 over their last 10 games, with a 46.95% expected goal share and -11 goal differential. Early on this season it appeared as though the team had taken steps forward defensively after struggling mightily in that regard last year, which had me reevaluating my belief that head coach Martin St. Louis is more of a strong leader/motivator than a tactically sharp coach.

As the season has worn on, however, it’s looked more so like the Canadiens were simply a team that clicked into top form earlier on than other opponents, and teams have begun to expose the young Canadiens defensively once again.

A huge reason for the Canadiens’ recent struggles comes down to the fact that Jakub Dobes and Samuel Montembeault are struggling in goal, and it’s safe to say they are both capable of better. But that’s part of the greater issue; both have been excellent dating back to the start of last season, which masked the team’s shaky defensive play. Now that they aren’t playing nearly as well, it’s calling attention to the fact that the side is far from a defensive juggernaut.

At 12-8-3 overall and 7-2-1 on home ice, the Utah Mammoth will provide a formidable test, and look likely to be a playoff team out of the highly competitive Central Division. Depth scoring remains somewhat of an issue, but head coach Andre Tourigny’s side has played an honest two-way game and continues to get solid goaltending from Karel Vejmelka.

Calgary Flames @ Tampa Bay Lightning

Flames moneyline odds	+155
Lightning moneyline odds	-185
Game total	Over 5.5 goals (-125), Under 5.5 (+105)
Time	7:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• As the Flames are a soft, out-of-conference opponent, it is possible that the Lightning will start backup Jonas Johansson in this spot. I’d recommend waiting for confirmation of Tampa Bay’s starter if you are intending to bet the Lightning or the under, as better prices will likely be available if Johansson is confirmed as the starter.
• The Lightning are 7-3-0 over the last 10 games, despite spending most of that time without Victor Hedman, Ryan McDonagh, and Erik Cernak, among others. Brayden Point also missed Monday’s matchup and is considered day-to-day.
• The Lightning are currently priced at +120 to win the Atlantic Division, and I actually don’t think that’s a bad bet. Following confirmation that Aleksander Barkov would miss the entire regular season, they entered the year as the favourite in the Atlantic, have looked like the best team in the division, and now hold a slight lead.
• In the time since I wrote an article on the Flames finishing dead last, they have played to a record of 4-1-1, which is an embarrassing look for me. I didn’t believe the Flames needed to sell their veterans in order for our bet to hit, but now that looks to be the case, and whether or not they should do so is a hotly contested issue in my hometown.
• Rasmus Andersson has put up 10 points over the last five games. He’s priced at +128 to record a point in tonight’s matchup. There’s an argument to be made that this is the dream situation for GM Craig Conroy to sell-high on the 29-year-old, but ownership is reportedly not interested in doing so.

New York Rangers @ Carolina Hurricanes

Rangers moneyline odds	+160
Hurricanes moneyline odds	-190
Game total	Over 6 goals (-105), Under 6 (-115)
Time	7:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• The second matchup of the season between these Metropolitan Division rivals. The Hurricanes won the previous meeting 3-0 at MSG on November 4th and closed as only -115 favourites, largely because they were without four blue-liners.
• The Hurricanes still remain without top defender Jaccob Slavin, while K’Andre Miller missed Wednesday’s practice and is considered a game-time decision. Jordan Staal will miss this matchup due to illness.
• The Hurricanes rank third in goals scored per game this season, despite Sebastian Aho (21 points in 22 games) being the team’s leading scorer with less than a point per game. Rod Brind’Amour has always leaned heavily into the roster’s strong depth, and that has been the case so far this season.
• Surprisingly enough, Shayne Gostisbehere is the Hurricanes’ only skater with a point-per-game average this season, and he has put up seven points in seven games since returning from the IL. He is priced at -110 to score a point in tonight’s matchup, and will quarterback the team’s top power-play unit.
• Rangers Captain J.T. Miller is considered a game-time decision. He has struggled this season while reportedly playing through an injury. Mike Zibanejad skated as the team’s number-one centre with Miller sidelined on Monday.

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Columbus Blue Jackets

Maple Leafs moneyline odds	+105
Blue Jackets moneyline odds	-125
Game total	Over 6 goals (-120), Under 6 (+100)
Time	7:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• Following a 3-5-2 run over their last 10 games, bet365 now offers the Maple Leafs just a 42% chance of making the playoffs based on their price of +140.
• The Leafs’ perceived lack of heart and desire to win continue to be major talking points surrounding the NHL’s most widely covered team, but their poor tactical play and lack of talent on the back end don’t seem to be getting enough coverage. They continue to struggle to break out with possession, and their blue line is not adept at driving play in the right direction, which are both critical needs in the modern-day NHL.
• In fairness to the Leafs, it is still important to note that they have been playing without numerous key skaters. It is possible they will get some significant reinforcements in this matchup, as Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies are expected to return to the lineup, which is likely the main reason the Leafs have moved from +105 to -110.
• The Blue Jackets appear to have dodged a bullet, as top-skater Zach Werenski is available for this matchup after suffering an upper-body injury on Monday versus the Capitals. The team will still remain without their second most important skater in Kirill Marchenko, as well as captain Boone Jenner.
• These teams met in Toronto last week, and the Blue Jackets won what was an evenly contested game, 3-2, in overtime.

Winnipeg Jets @ Washington Capitals

Jets moneyline odds	+125
Capitals moneyline odds	-150
Game total	Over 6.5 goals (-105), Under 6.5 (-115)
Time	7:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• The Capitals moved to a price of -165 after opening at -150, but are now back down to -150 because Charlie Lindgren has been confirmed as Washington’s starter. While Lindgren offers a drop-off from Vezina favourite Logan Thompson, he’s been sharper than his .889 save percentage suggests, and his surface-level stats are still tanked by soaking up all seven goals on October 25th in a spot where the Capitals completely no-showed the second leg of a back-to-back.
• The Jets are 0-2-0 in the time that they have been without Connor Hellebuyck, who will miss four-to-six weeks due to injury. Eric Comrie was a much better than average backup last season, and his play in the first two games since Hellebuyck’s absence has been fine despite the losing results.
• Neal Pionk will miss this matchup for the Jets. Pionk’s absence could prove significant, as defensive depth has been an issue for the Jets this season.
• The Capitals have scored five goals per game and are 4-1-0 over the last five games. Their offensive process has looked solid this season, and it’s not overly surprising that they have been rewarded with a greater output of late.

San Jose Sharks @ Colorado Avalanche

Sharks moneyline odds	+320
Avalanche moneyline odds	–400
Game total	Over 6 goals (-110), Under 6 (-110)
Time	9:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• The Sharks bested the Avalanche 3-2 in overtime in San Jose on November 1st, a game in which the Avalanche were playing the second leg of a back-to-back. Since that point, the Avalanche have won nine straight, moving their record to an absurd 16-1-5 in a season where the rest of the league has been more competitive than ever.
• Sharks goaltender Yaraslov Askarov holds a .936 save percentage over his last 10 starts and a 2.06 GAA.
• Nathan MacKinnon is the current Hart Trophy favourite with 37 points in 22 games played, but there’s certainly an argument to be made that Macklin Celebrini’s 34 points on a bad Sharks team is actually more impressive.
• The Avalanche are 8-0-2 on home ice this season.

Dallas Stars @ Seattle Kraken

Stars moneyline odds	-130
Kraken moneyline odds	+110
Game total	Over 5.5 goals (-120), Under 5.5 (+100)
Time	10:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• As I discussed in yesterday’s disastrous article predicting Leon Draisaitl to hold a positive plus/minus rating at +135, the market has moved against the Stars quite consistently over the last few weeks, despite their strong results, and that is the case once again in this matchup as Dallas opened at -145.
• The Edmonton Oilers made it easy for the Stars early on in Tuesday’s matchup, as they flexed their clinical finishing ability while scoring three times in the first period. The Stars have scored on 15.9% of shots over the last 10 games.
• Mikko Rantanen will be the freshest Stars skater after serving a one-game suspension Tuesday evening.
• The Stars will be without Thomas Harley and Ilya Lyubushkin in this matchup, leaving their blue-line looking somewhat concerning. It didn’t matter last night, but it could be a greater concern in this spot where the Kraken will likely offer a much sharper defensive game than Edmonton did last night.
• Joey Daccord has stopped 56 of 58 shots over the last two games. The gap between him and Matt Murray/Philipp Grubauer will likely be quite significant once again this season, and following Kraken goaltending confirmations remains important from a handicapping perspective.

Ottawa Senators @ Vegas Golden Knights

Senators moneyline odds	+145
Golden Knights moneyline odds	-170
Game total	Over 5.5 goals (-120), Under 5.5 (+100)
Time	10:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• Brady Tkachuk revealed on his podcast that he expects to return to the lineup in Friday’s matchup versus the St. Louis Blues. The Senators have gone 10-5-4 during his absence.
• No surprise to see another Senators total at 5.5 here. They hold the second best xGA/60 rating in the NHL this season, while the Knights rank fourth in xGA/60.
• Though the Knights’ 10-5-7 record is not overly convincing, their play has looked more or less as expected, and they should still be a safe bet to waltz into the playoffs quite comfortably out of a Pacific Division that looks to be arguably the worst in hockey.
• The important thing to consider from a handicapping perspective, however, is that oddsmakers still seem to be pricing the Knights as one of the better teams in the league, as evidenced by today’s price tag versus a scrappy Senators side that will likely be a playoff team.

Vancouver Canucks @ Anaheim Ducks

Canucks moneyline odds	+135
Ducks moneyline odds	-160
Game total	Over 6.5 goals (-130), Under 6.5 (+110)
Time	10:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• Canucks head coach Adam Foote’s made waves with this funny soundbite regarding the analytics community following the Canucks’ 5-2 loss to the Calgary Flames, and it’s not surprising to hear a level of bitterness given that the Canucks have been atrocious from an analytical perspective of late.
• Over the last 10 games, the Canucks have allowed 4.38 xGA/60, which is the worst mark in the NHL by a wide margin. They are 3-5-2 in that span, and have allowed 4.50 goals against per game, which is ironically very close to the amount of goals against the analytics suggest the Canucks would allow in that time frame.
• Bet365 is running a superboost on Quinn Hughes to record three shots or more at +110, up from a price of -140. Keep in mind the standard price suggests Hughes will come up short of three shots 47% of the time, but in general these boosts hold positive expected values, which is why the limits for most users are quite low.