Saturday’s matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Montreal Canadiens comes at a very exciting time, as both teams will be desperate to turn the tides by earning a critical win over a bitter rival.
Let’s construct a same-game parlay at bet365 for this exciting NHL matchup that consists of two legs and prices out at +230:
- Montreal Canadiens Moneyline (-135 straight bet odds)
- Cole Caufield Anytime Goalscorer (+130 straight bet odds)
Nicks’s Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens SGP
Leg 1 – Montreal Canadiens Moneyline (-135 odds as a straight bet)
At -135, I believe there is plenty of value in betting the Canadiens to win this game as a straight, as I touch on in greater detail in Saturday’s daily slate breakdown.
Neither of these two sides has been in overly convincing form recently, but there’s still a strong case that the Canadiens’ situation is less dire. While the Canadiens are also without several skaters who typically crack the lineup, Toronto’s losses still figure to be much more impactful given the quality and quantity of its injured skaters.
The Leafs are expected to be without Auston Matthews, Chris Tanev, Anthony Stolarz, Brandon Carlo, Nicolas Roy, and potentially Matthew Knies, who’s been one of the team’s few better-than-average forwards this season.
Even if you are a fairly casual NHL observer, you’ve surely heard that things have been quite messy in hockey’s most prominently covered market this season. The Leafs rank 27th in expected goal share and have allowed 31.39 shots per 60. The underlying numbers aren’t pretty, and watching head coach Craig Berube’s side that’s no surprise.
The Leafs’ defensive core has had a really tough time breaking out of their own zone, and their lack of controlled zone exits has led to a ton of time spent defending. Toronto has strived to become more difficult to play against by bringing in older, hard-nosed players, but it has seemingly whittled out too many pieces that helped drive play in the right direction.
The result has been a team built to play well in front of its own goal, but that has put a ton of onus in doing so because of a lack of possession. Berube will continue to preach the need for sharper defensive play, but I’m just not sold that the overall tactics or roster composition will make that overly possible, because the Leafs simply are putting a lot of pressure on themselves to defend.
The Canadiens have hit a rough patch too in losing five straight matchups, but the Leafs’ current struggles feel a little bit more legitimate and more deeply rooted. Montreal still holds a solid 51.29% expected goal share in even-strength play over the last 10 games but has suffered from poor goaltending and a few more high-profile defensive breakdowns than usual.
Joseph Woll has been in sharper form than both Samuel Montembeault and Jakub Dobes recently, but that’s the one argument in favour of the Leafs entering this matchup, and both Montembeault and Dobes have been strong goaltenders dating back to the start of last season, which suggests they are capable of trending into better form.
Leg 2: Cole Caufield To Score (+130 straight bet odds)
As we have touched on above, the Leafs’ defensive play has simply not been good this season. They have allowed 3.67 goals against per game, which is the second-highest mark in the NHL. Their defensive metrics are also among the league’s worst, and that’s including the sample of games in which they were competing with a much more complete lineup.
So obviously we like the chances that the Canadiens can manage a strong offensive output in Saturday’s critical matchup, and I’m happy to look towards the Canadiens’ most likely goalscorer being Cole Caufield. Caufield has recorded just one goal over the last three games, but he’s generated 15 shots on target from 26 attempts on target, and recorded 2.04 expected goals in that span.
Head coach Martin St. Louis elevated Zachary Bolduc into Juraj Slafkovsky’s spot on the Canadiens’ top line for Thursday’s matchup versus the Washington Capitals, and though it was a losing result, the trio does seem likely to succeed big picture. Bolduc is a strong play-driver capable of getting in on the forecheck aggressively and controlling play along the walls, helping create extra touches for Caufield and Suzuki.
While Matthews has not been overly productive this season, he is by a wide-margin the Leafs’ most impactful centre, and his absence makes it much more difficult for Berube to offer convincing matchups to handle Montreal’s highly talented top line. The Blue Jackets’ top unit had a productive showing versus the Leafs on Thursday, and I expect the same from Caufield, Suzuki, and Bolduc in this matchup.
And as the Canadiens’ offensive lineup is also a little depleted, it seems likely that head coach Martin St. Louis will offer his top unit heavy usage in this matchup, which is certainly drawing a little extra attention from both sides.
Considering the winnable matchups that Caufield should skate in this matchup, I like the chances that one of the game’s better goalscorers is able to find the back of the net on home ice in this Saturday’s high-profile matchup.
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