In this article, I’ll outline the most noteworthy odds, news, and betting notes from Friday’s four-game NHL slate, and I’ll also offer up my best bet of the night.
Best bet—Hurricanes vs Jets: Hurricanes Moneyline -155
Hurricanes moneyline
There appears to be two tiers at the top of the NHL right now, with the Colorado Avalanche alone in their own cohort, and then the Carolina Hurricanes in their own cohort beneath Colorado. For me, the Winnipeg Jets would fall into cohort #4, being a team that will almost certainly make the playoffs but will be heavy underdogs in the divisional bracket versus the Dallas Stars and Avalanche.
Though they have been highly successful in recent regular seasons, the Jets have never been overly dominant in terms of controlling the run of play but have finished chances at a high rate and have the game’s best goaltender in Connor Hellebuyck. Even with that in mind, the majority of Jets’ analysts and much of the fanbase seem to understand that this year’s start is particularly concerning.
The Jets rank 29th in expected goal share at even strength, and their overall process has looked quite concerning. They may stabilize to some extent now that Haydn Fleury is the only skater absent from the lineup, but the most concerning thing for the Jets is that Hellebuyck will miss up to six weeks for knee surgery, leaving Eric Comrie with the starting goaltending duties through Christmas.
The Hurricanes have done what they always do under head coach Rod Brind’Amour this season, playing at a breakneck pace and applying a ton of pressure on the forecheck and tracking back exceptionally well in the neutral zone in order to dominate the overall run of play.
The only difference is this appears to be the most talented offensive lineup that the Hurricanes have had during this recent run of success, aided by the addition of former Jet Nikolaj Ehlers, whose absence from the Jets lineup has been noteworthy. The Hurricanes have scored 3.60 goals per game this season, which ranks only behind the Avalanche.
Whether it’s been Frederik Andersen or Pyotr Kochetkov in goal for Carolina, it is getting solid play from both in goal, and if that continues to be the case, it will be an extremely formidable side. Kochetkov is expected to get the start Friday and has played to a .926 save percentage and +1.9 GSAx in five appearances this season.
Chicago Blackhawks @ Buffalo Sabres
| Blackhawks moneyline odds | +160 |
| Sabres moneyline odds | -190 |
| Game total | Over 6 goals (-120), Under 6 (+100) |
| Time | 7:07 p.m. ET |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
- The Blackhawks will be playing the second leg of a travelling back-to-back after losing in regulation to the Seattle Kraken last night despite entering the third period with a two-goal lead.
- Spencer Knight started Thursday’s matchup, so Arvid Soderblom is expected to start in this matchup. Soderblom played well in his last start versus the Calgary Flames and now holds a +5.0 GSAx rating and a .912 save percentage in six appearances this season.
- Connor Bedard took a critical abuse of official unsportsmanlike penalty late in the third period Thursday, which ultimately led to Seattle’s game-winning goal. It was certainly within the official’s right to make the call, but it also seems safe to say a more senior player is not getting rung up in that spot.
- The Sabres have been off since falling 6-2 to the Calgary Flames on home ice Wednesday evening, and it does seem that the market is betting into Buffalo’s situational advantage, as it has moved to -190 after opening at -180.
- In three games since returning from a leave of absence to be with his wife, who received heart transplant surgery, Sabres captain Rasmus Dahlin has racked up five points and averaged just over 25 minutes of ice time.
- Though Dahlin’s return has been highly significant, the Sabres are still without numerous useful NHL skaters, including Michael Kesselring, Zach Benson, Jiri Kulich, Josh Norris, and Jason Zucker.
- Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is expected to get the start in goal for the Sabres but has not been confirmed, and it would still not be surprising to see Alex Lyon get the start. “UPL” has played to an .883 save percentage and -2.0 GSAx rating in four appearances this season, while Lyon has been much sharper with a +2.4 GSAx and .907 save percentage in 12 appearances.
- My personal opinion would be that the Blackhawks look pretty tempting at +160 if you were able to lock in that price following confirmation that Luukkonen is starting.
Minnesota Wild @ Pittsburgh Penguins
| Wild moneyline odds | +105 |
| Penguins moneyline odds | -125 |
| Game total | Over 6 goals (-105), Under 6 (-110) |
| Time | 7:07 p.m. ET |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
- This will be the Penguins’ first game since playing in the NHL Global Series in Sweden, which was completed last Sunday. The line has moved fairly heavily towards the Penguins, who opened at -110 and are now priced at -125.
- This will be the second and final meeting of the season between these two sides. The Penguins won the previous matchup 4-1 in Minnesota on October 30th, a loss which currently seems to be somewhat of a turning point for the Wild, who have played to a record of 7-1-1 since.
- The Wild have won three straight matchups and are 7-2-1 over the last 10 games. The first two games of this win streak were fairly impressive, as they bested the Anaheim Ducks and Vegas Golden Knights with sound defensive performances, while Wednesday’s shootout win over the Carolina Hurricanes revolved around a Herculean performance in goal from Jesper Wallstedt.
- Wallstedt has outperformed Filip Gustavsson in goal this season, as Wallstedt holds a +3.3 GSAx rating and .926 save percentage in six appearances. Gustavsson is considered the more likely starter in this matchup based on how the rotation has gone, though it would not be surprising to see Wallstedt start to steal a few more starts moving forward if he continues to play at such a high level.
- It’s not overly surprising given Kirill Kaprizov’s overall production and the fact that the Penguins have been pretty poor defensively the last two seasons, but Kaprizov has put up three goals and eight points in his last five matchups versus the Penguins.
- Penguins head coach Dan Muse is rightfully getting credit for the Penguins’ unexpected turnaround and is now priced at +1100 to win the Jack Adams Trophy. It remains to be seen whether the Pens can keep this level of play up, but they will be betting favourites in each of the next three games on home ice, and if they go 3-0 in those games, Muse’s price will certainly tick down.
- Furthermore towards Muse’s case for the Jack Adams, it’s interesting that both Erik Karlsson and Ryan Graves have gone out of their way to note how greatly the coaching change has helped them achieve a higher level of play compared to last season.
Boston Bruins @ Los Angeles Kings
| Bruins moneyline odds | +165 |
| Kings moneyline odds | –200 |
| Game total | Over 5.5 goals (-115), Under 5.5 (-105) |
| Time | 10:07 p.m. ET |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
- While I would personally agree that the Bruins aren’t as good as their record suggests, particularly given their current absences, oddsmakers appear to be well aware of that, considering the Kings are -200 in this matchup, in which they will be playing the second leg of a back-to-back.
- The Kings lost 4-3 in the shootout last night to the San Jose Sharks. Number-one goaltender Darcy Kuemper rested in that matchup and is expected to start Friday.
- Number-one defender Charlie McAvoy, Elias Lindholm, Casey Mittelstadt, Viktor Arvidsson, and Jordan Harris are all on Boston’s IR.
- Drew Doughty is the only skater on the Kings IR.
- The Kings were historically strong on home ice last season, but are just 1-4-2 on home ice so far this season.