The Columbus Blue Jackets will take on the Toronto Maple Leafs in an exciting NHL matchup, which already looks quite important for both sides who are right in the thick of what will surely be a very competitive Eastern Conference playoff race.
Let’s construct a same-game parlay at bet365 for this exciting NHL matchup that consists of three legs and prices out at +325, and will also allow eligible users to use their 30% SGP boost for tonight’s NHL card:
- Columbus Blue Jackets Moneyline (-115 straight bet odds)
- Kirill Marchenko Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-130 straight bet odds)
- Jake McCabe Over 1.5 Blocked Shots (-270 straight bet odds)
Nick’s Blue Jackets/Maple Leafs SGP
Leg 1 – Columbus Blue Jackets (-115 odds as a straight bet)
My belief in the Blue Jackets in this spot revolves both around the Blue Jackets potentially being overvalued and the heavily depleted Leafs potentially holding up a little too much value after earning an overtime win over the lowly St. Louis Blues Tuesday evening.
Head coach Craig Berube’s shorthanded Maple Leafs side played a solid, simple game on Tuesday night in which their defensive structure was much improved compared to the rest of the season. Still, when the Blues applied pressure more aggressively in the later portion of the matchup, the inability of Toronto’s defensive core to move the puck still became quite apparent.
With Auston Matthews, Chris Tanev, Brandon Carlo, and Nicolas Roy sidelined, the Maple Leafs’ roster depth has become a significant issue, and even when more of those skaters were in the lineup this season, they were still being heavily outplayed. Matthew Knies also missed Thursday’s morning skate, and it’s possible that the strong two-way power forward will not return to the lineup for tonight’s game.
Over the last 15 games, the Leafs rank 28th in expected goal share and have allowed 32.8 shots against per game.
For those who don’t believe underlying metrics analytics, it’s plain to see watching the Leafs recently that they are not playing a very good brand of hockey, as they have played to a record of 6-7-2 over the last 15 games and scored only 3.40 goals per game while allowing 3.87 goals against per game.
The Blue Jackets, meanwhile, are 8-5-2 over their last 15 games and hold a solid 52.06% expected goal share in that span. After showing plenty of promise in a small sample last season, Jet Greaves has been rock-solid in goal this season with a +8.4 GSAx rating in 12 appearances, earning a record of 6-4-2.
Leg 2 – Kirill Marchenko Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-130 odds as a straight bet)
The Blue Jackets’ top line of Marchenko, Adam Fantilli, and Dmitri Voronkov should be able to generate a ton of chances in this favourable matchup, and I’m happy to buy low on the trio’s most consistent shooter in Marchenko. Marchenko has recorded 59 shot attempts over the last eight games and has had a low amount of those attempts reach the target (19).
Marchenko, Fantilli, and Voronkov have generated 3.64 xGF/60 this season and are a handful for any team to keep in check. Toronto’s ability to offer strong line matches versus opposing top units is currently greatly reduced with Matthews and Chris Tanev out of the lineup, as well as potentially Knies. While Matthews’ production has been disappointing this season, the Leafs have outscored opponents 16- 6 with him on the ice at even strength, and not having him in the mix to go head-to-head versus the Blue Jackets’ top unit certainly helps the potential for Columbus’ talented top trio to create a wealth of scoring opportunities.
Leg 3-Jake McCabe Over 1.5 Shot Blocks (-270 as a straight bet)
I’m not typically huge on adding on heavily juiced legs such as this one to same game parlays, as in general online sportsbooks do not offer an overly fair price relative to the full-line (Over 2.5 blocked shots at +128), as there is no two-way market for McCabe to record under 1.5 shot blocks.
In this scenario, I’m willing to live with those concerns, though, as a third leg is important in unlocking the 30% same game parlay bonus, and McCabe does appear to be a pretty safe bet to record at least two blocks. He’s recorded at least two blocks in 12 of the last 15 games, suggesting an implied probability of 73.6% based on a price of -270 is quite reasonable.
With Carlo and Tanev sidelined, Berube will likely continue to be forced to use McCabe quite heavily in this matchup, despite the fact that his overall level of play this season has not been good. The fact that Toronto has struggled to carry much of the play in McCabe’s minutes is a good thing for this prop, however, as we obviously want McCabe to be playing in his defensive zone where he can generate shot blocks in this matchup.
McCabe has been getting a ton of defensive zone starts this season, and I’m expecting him to spend a lot of time playing against the Blue Jackets’ top units in this matchup, who should be able to carry play effectively in this matchup. As a result, this appears to be a good spot to buy on a prop that has hit in 80% of McCabe’s last 15 games played.
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