NHL Odds, Betting Notes, & Picks For Nov. 18

In this article, I’ll outline the most noteworthy odds, news, and betting notes from the marquee matchups from Tuesday’s eight-game NHL slate, and I’ll also offer up my best bet of the night.

Best bet—Detroit Red Wings Regulation Win vs. Seattle Kraken: -105

The Kraken enter Tuesday’s matchup with a .639 points percentage, and betting on them to win every matchup this season would have yielded a 12.4% ROI. With those thoughts in mind, it may look a little intimidating to fade them as fairly heavy underdogs versus a Red Wings side with a comparable record.

Coming from someone who actually argued that the Kraken would outperform oddsmakers’ expectations entering the year, they haven’t looked nearly as impressive as their record suggests, and with number-one goaltender Joey Daccord currently sidelined due to injury, it’s hard to imagine they will continue to fare so well while being out-chanced by most opponents.

Over the last 10 games, the Kraken hold a 46.59% expected goal share and a -1 goal differential. They’ve managed a solid 5-2-3 record in that span, but only two of those wins came versus teams currently in a playoff spot, and those wins were over the Chicago Blackhawks and struggling Winnipeg Jets.

Considering their recent strength of schedule, it’s quite concerning that the Kraken have generally been out-chanced by their opponents.

Philipp Grubauer has been surprisingly competent in a small sample this season, playing to a .903 save percentage and a +0.3 GSAx rating in five appearances. Fading Grubauer was an excellent betting strategy in the previous two seasons; betting in each of his 54 starts would have yielded an 18.5% ROI.

The Red Wings, meanwhile, look to be a legitimately improved side this season. They once again feature a potent top six capable of capitalizing on scoring chances at a high rate but have been much sharper defensively under head coach Todd McLellan this season, as he’s offered meaningful usage to talented young defenders such as Axel Sandin-Pelikka and Simon Edvinsson.

Over the last 10 games, the Red Wings hold a 52.39% expected goal share, with relatively average defensive metrics, which is a huge improvement relative to last season.

And for what it’s worth, home-ice advantage does appear to be somewhat significant in this spot. The Kraken have been excellent at home this season, playing to a record of 6-1-3, but are just 3-3-2 on the road, while Detroit is 6-3-1 at home.

The Red Wings’ potent offensive core should be able to create some high-quality looks in this spot and will likely manage a solid offensive output versus a Kraken team that appears due for significant regression.

New Jersey Devils @ Tampa Bay Lightning

Devils moneyline odds	+140
Lightning moneyline odds	-180
Game total	Over 6 goals (-105), Under 6 (-115)
Time	7:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• Both teams are dealing with several key absences entering this matchup, and both have a couple of key skaters whose statuses are unclear.
• The Devils will undoubtedly be without Jack Hughes and Brett Pesce and could remain without Dougie Hamilton, among several other less notable skaters. Their defensive depth has been a strength this season, which has helped cover up for the losses of Pesce and Hamilton.
• Victor Hedman and Anthony Cirelli are both listed as day-to-day for the Lightning, while Ryan McDonagh, Nick Paul, and Pontus Holmberg are on the IR.
• The Lightning have not lived up to the hype so far this season, playing to a record of 9-7-2, though a small winning streak would likely put them back on top of the Atlantic Division. As you might expect looking at the betting odds from this matchup, they do hold a strong underlying profile, ranking first in expected goal share over the last 10 games.
• I’m not quite there on backing the Devils on Tuesday (though if Cirelli and Hedman are both confirmed out that may change), but I may be looking to back them soon based on how they are being valued without Jack Hughes.
• The Devils closed at +140 in their first matchup without Hughes on Saturday and played a pretty even matchup with the Washington Capitals, which they were ultimately able to win in a shootout.
• New Jersey’s offensive upside obviously takes a big hit with Hughes sidelined, but they have been a well-structured defensive team this season that may be able to tread water respectably during his absence.

St. Louis Blues @ Toronto Maple Leafs

Blues moneyline odds	+105
Maple Leafs moneyline odds	-125
Game total	Over 6 goals (-110), Under 6 (-110)
Time	7:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• The Blues opened at +115 but have ticked down to a price of +105, which seems more fair to me.
• While the Maple Leafs‘ level of desperation should be extremely high in this matchup, it’s fair to argue that notion has seeped into the betting lines considering their recent play and current lineup.
• While the notion that the Leafs need to “compete harder” has been beaten to death by the local media recently, it seems that tactics and a lack of ability are at least equally legitimate concerns, if not more so. The Leafs’ blue line has struggled mightily to move play in the right direction this season, while the bottom six has been drastically out-chanced and outscored.
• The Blues have received the lowest save percentage in the league (.860) from goaltenders Jordan Binnington and Joel Hofer, which is the concern betting them in a matchup where they should hold a strong share of the overall play despite being underdogs.
• The Leafs’ ugly injury list includes captain Auston Matthews, Brandon Carlo, Anthony Stolarz, Chris Tanev, Nicolas Roy and Scott Laughton.
• Though Matthews has worn some blame for the Leafs’ poor start, from a betting perspective it’s important to consider that Toronto had outscored opponents 16-6 in Matthews’ five-on-five minutes this season, which hammers home the point that his absence is still highly significant.
• Joseph Woll will make his second start of the season for the Leafs. He looked solid in his season debut on Saturday in Chicago, stopping 29 of 32 shots faced.

Columbus Blue Jackets @ Winnipeg Jets

Blue Jackets moneyline odds	+160
Jets moneyline odds	-190
Game total	Over 6.5 goals (+100), Under 6.5 (-120)
Time	8:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• The Blue Jackets will be playing the second leg of a travelling back-to-back after managing a 4-3 shootout win over the Montreal Canadiens on Monday evening. Jet Greaves started Monday, so Elvis Merzlikins is expected to play in this matchup. Merzlikins holds a +5.0 GSAx rating in seven appearances this season.
• While this is a tough spot for Columbus, its recent play has been impressive. It holds a record of 5-3-2 over the last 10 games and an expected goal share of 52.48% in those matchups.
• As they roster the game’s best goaltender in the NHL and some forwards with elite scoring talent, the Jets may be capable of achieving solid results this season while being out-chanced, as they generally have been all season long.
• The Jets rank 28th in expected goal share in even-strength play this season. Shot quality is obviously what matters most in hockey, but expected goals data does track location in order to give some idea of shot quality, though intricacies such as high-quality seam passes are not accurately depicted.
• It is possible that the Jets will start Eric Comrie in this favourable spot, and he has not played since November 9th. Though Comrie is obviously far from Connor Hellebuyck, he is a better-than-average backup option.
• Blue Jackets captain Boone Jenner is on the IR and will miss this matchup.
• This is the Jets’ first home game since November 1st. They went 2-4-0 on their recent six-game Western road swing, which wrapped up Saturday in Calgary.

Calgary Flames @ Chicago Blackhawks

Flames moneyline odds	-110
Blackhawks moneyline odds	-110
Game total	Over 6 goals (+100), Under 6 (-120)
Time	8:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• The Flames were embarrassed at home by the Blackhawks on November 7th, falling 4-0. They have responded to that loss with four highly spirited efforts but are just 1-2-1 in those matchups.
• It would be entirely unfair to question the compete level the Flames have displayed this season, despite the fact that they rank 32nd in the NHL standings. They continue to appear as though they are outworking and have often out-chanced opponents on average, but for a second straight season have had an extremely hard time creating scoring chances that are actually likely to lead to goals and lack shooting talent, which were prominent weaknesses in their last matchup with the Blackhawks.
• Arvid Soderblom may start in goal for the Blackhawks, and final confirmation towards that thought is critical from a handicapping perspective. Spencer Knight holds the highest GSAx rating (+14.7) in the NHL this season. The Flames managed 33 shots on goal versus Knight in the previous matchup between these sides, and their low-quality shot approach could be drastically more effective versus Soderblom than Knight.

New York Rangers @ Vegas Golden Knights

Rangers moneyline odds	+120
Golden Knights moneyline odds	-140
Game total	Over 6 goals (-105), Under 6 (-115)
Time	10:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• The Rangers opened at +135, but have moved to what appears to be a more accurate price of +120. Now that the Rangers are finishing more of their scoring chances, they have played to a record of 7-3-0 over the last 10 games and appear to be a fairly well-rounded side.
• New York will have a significant edge in goal with Igor Shesterkin likely to face off against Akira Schmid. Over the last 10 games, Knights goaltenders have played to a save percentage of just .880, and Adin Hill’s absence is starting to feel more significant as they hold a record of just 3-3-4 in those matchups.
• Artemi Panarin has put up 11 points over the last six games. He is priced at -210 to record one point Tuesday.

Utah Mammoth @ San Jose Sharks

Mammoth moneyline odds	-135
Sharks moneyline odds	+115
Game total	Over 6 goals (-120), Under 6 (+100)
Time	10:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• The Mammoth will be playing the second leg of a back-to-back after a heartbreaking overtime loss versus the Ducks on Monday, as Anaheim tied the game with just five seconds left to play. Utah is 1-2-0 in the second leg of back-to-backs so far this season.
• We likely won’t get to know for certain until warm-ups, but I’m expecting Mammoth head coach Andre Tourigny to shuffle his offensive units in this matchup, potentially splitting up his stacked top line of Logan Cooley, Nick Schmaltz and Clayton Keller to try and find more balance, or moving JJ Peterka back up to the second unit.
• Vitek Vanecek is expected to start in goal for the Mammoth. Vanecek has played to a +1.3 GSAx rating in five appearances this season.