In this article, I’ll outline the most noteworthy odds, news, and betting notes from the marquee matchups from Friday’s four-game NHL slate, and I’ll also offer up my best bet.
Best bet – Mammoth puck line -1.5: +120
Mammoth puck line vs. Islanders
Our best bet from Thursday’s slate preview was backing the Vegas Golden Knights to cover the puck line at +140, a pick that was ultimately a loser, as the Islanders tied it up late in the third period thanks to a pretty goal from Mathew Barzal with the goalie pulled. Losing on the same take in back-to-back games is particularly embarrassing and may be the thing I hate most about recommending bets to the public, but I’m willing to take that risk with tonight’s best bet on the Utah Mammoth to cover the puck line Friday.
I’m not sold that the Islanders’ current process will continue to lead to such strong results, and last night’s matchup didn’t exactly change my perspective. The Islanders showed strong resilience to tie it up late and their game-tying goal was a beautiful play, but the rest of the game was not overly convincing.
The Islanders were outplayed in the first period, but Emil Heineman snuck an ugly goal past Akira Schmid to spot the team a 1-0 lead. New York eventually blew a two-goal lead as the Knights slowly imposed their will, but the Islanders saved an ugly collapse with an empty-netter before scoring another softie on Schmid in overtime.
Across all strengths, the Knights led 5.41 to 3.10 in expected goal share, but Ilya Sorokin drastically outplayed Schmid to cover up for the team’s unconvincing performance. It’s not just been tough matchups in Vegas in which the Islanders have been outplayed lately, as they hold a 47.37% expected goal share at even strength over the last 10 games.
Playing the second leg of a back-to-back in Utah projects to be a very tough spot. The Mammoth are 5-1-0 on home ice this season and have played to a goal differential of +8. They have covered the puck line in three of those six matchups, with two of the games that they did not cover coming versus the Colorado Avalanche and Tampa Bay Lightning, who do not appear to be in the same cohort as the Islanders.
The Mammoth are well-situated from a rest perspective, as after returning from Ottawa Sunday evening, they have played just once, a 5-2 win over the Buffalo Sabres on Wednesday. The Mammoth hold a 50.89% expected goal share over their last 10 games, and have plenty of high-quality scoring threats atop the lineup, which suggests they should be quite a formidable side this season if they can continue to generate chances at an above-average rate.
Islanders backup goaltender David Rittich has had a surprisingly strong start to the year, but depending on whether it’s Karel Vejmelka or Vitek Vanecek in goal for Utah, the Mammoth will have either a significant goaltending edge or a slight one. Rittich held a -11.4 GSAx rating in 34 appearances last season and has generally been a well below average option throughout his lengthy career.
At a price of +120, I’m happy to back the Mammoth to capitalize on this favourable spot by authoring a convincing win.
Pittsburgh Penguins @ Nashville Predators
| Penguins moneyline odds | -125 |
| Predators moneyline odds | +105 |
| Game total | Over 6.5 goals (+100), Under 6.5 (-120) |
| Time | 2:07 p.m. ET |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
- This matchup is the first game of the NHL Global Series and will be played at Avicii Arena in Stockholm, Sweden. The game will still be played on an NHL-sized ice surface.
- Backing skaters playing in their home country in the prop market is always a trendy play in the prop market for NHL Global Series matchups. Erik Karlsson and Filip Forsberg are the two high-profile Swedes in this matchup, and they both practiced on their respective sides’ top units and top power plays.
- Rickard Rakell will unfortunately miss the chance to play in his home country as he continues to recover from a hand injury.
- It’s not surprising to me that the Penguins are now priced at -125 after opening at -110. They have outperformed the Predators in terms of actual results and underlying metrics this season. While the Penguins are listed as the road team, in this particular spot, last change is the only advantage the Predators have in being the home side.
- In nine games since captain and number-one defender Roman Josi was injured, the Predators are 1-6-2 and hold an expected goal share of 45.6%.
Vancouver Canucks @ Carolina Hurricanes
| Canucks moneyline odds | +220 |
| Hurricanes moneyline odds | -270 |
| Game total | Over 6.5 goals (+100), Under 6.5 (-120) |
| Time | 7:07 p.m. ET |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
- At +220, the Canucks are the largest underdog that they have been this season. A road game in Carolina is likely currently viewed by oddsmakers as the second most difficult matchup in hockey, with a road game in Colorado likely viewed as the most difficult.
- Thatcher Demko is expected to miss this matchup with what is reportedly an injury that is unrelated to his previous issues this season. When healthy, Demko has been excellent this year, playing to a +6.3 GSAx rating in 10 appearances.
- Kevin Lankinen has been respectable once again this season, playing to a +1.4 GSAx despite holding an .885 save percentage, which tells us the Canucks have defended quite poorly in Lankinen’s outings.
- A total of 6.5 looks fairly high to me at first glance, but the underlying metrics suggest that the Canucks have been playing a surprisingly high-event brand of hockey recently. Over the last 10 games, the Canucks have allowed 3.92 xGA/60 (second most) but generated 3.48 xGF/60 (14th best).
- Canucks captain and top skater Quinn Hughes is once again listed as day-to-day ahead of this matchup.
Philadelphia Flyers @ St. Louis Blues
| Flyers moneyline odds | +115 |
| Blues moneyline odds | -135 |
| Game total | Over 5.5 goals (-115), Under 5.5 (-105) |
| Time | 8:07 p.m. ET |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
- The Blues have seemingly started to stabilize in playing to a mark of 3-1-1 over the last four games. The greatest reason for their disappointing start has been receiving the league’s worst goaltending from Jordan Binnington and Joel Hofer, but Binnington had his best start of the season Tuesday, stopping 38 of 40 shots versus the Calgary Flames.
- As expected, the Flyers have been one of the NHL’s most low-event teams this season under head coach Rick Tocchet. Over the last 10 games, they hold the seventh-best xGA/60 rating in the NHL but rank 27th in xGF/60 in the same span.
- At the time of writing, the Flyers have not yet confirmed a starting goaltender for this matchup. Dan Vladar has been fantastic this season with a .919 save percentage and 2.15 GAA, while Samuel Ersson has struggled once again after being among the league’s worst starters last season.
- My personal recommendation would be to wait if backing the Flyers or the under, as I’m not sure that confirmation that Vladar will play would move the Flyers moneyline (+115) or under 5.5 (-105) from their current prices, but if it is Ersson, those numbers would likely improve.