The upcoming NHL matchup between the Edmonton Oilers and Philadelphia Flyers on November 12 promises an exciting clash for fans and sports bettors alike.
Let’s construct a long shot same-game parlay for this Wednesday’s exciting matchup that consists of three legs and prices out at +1140. This bet is a long shot for a reason; please keep that in mind when considering your stake.
- Regulation Tie
- Connor McDavid Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
- Matvei Michkov Over 0.5 Points
Nick’s Oilers vs. Flyers SGP
Leg 1 – Regulation Tie (+300 straight bet odds)
Ties have been running rampant in the NHL this season, and if this current trend is to continue much longer, oddsmakers will likely start to reduce the prices for betting games to reach overtime.
27.3% of the 264 games played so far this season have reached overtime, so at the most surface-level interpretation, getting +300 for any matchup to go to overtime is a perfectly fine bet. However, on top of the overall percentage of games requiring overtime, there are obviously some games that teams are massive favourites that are much less likely to require overtime, and tonight’s matchup in particular seems to be a strong candidate to ride the overtime trend, which does correlate slightly with the other two legs of our parlay.
Six of the Flyers’ first 15 games of the season have required overtime, and excluding empty-netters, seven of their last nine games have been decided by one goal, with four of those matchups requiring overtime. Head coach Rick Tocchet’s side has not pressed to build upon their leads and has not had the offensive upside to blow teams out of the water this season.
Seven of the Oilers’ 17 games have required overtime this season. They have the offensive upside to author impressive comebacks when playing from behind, as we saw on Monday versus the Columbus Blue Jackets during their 5-4 overtime win, but they are not well-suited to lock leads down late, like we during their 4-3 overtime loss to the Dallas Stars last Tuesday.
Leg 2 – Connor McDavid Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-170 straight bet odds)
Parlaying McDavid to record three shots on goal pushes the price for the game to finish in a tie from +300 to +500, and that is enough for me to add this chalky second leg given the chance that McDavid records at least three shots in a competitive game script.
McDavid noted that he wanted to be a little more selfish in front of the goal this season, and it took some time for that narrative to play out, but he’s been firing shots on target at a high rate recently and has been rewarded with four goals over the last three games, which suggests he’s not likely to shy away from taking a more shot-minded approach in Wednesday’s matchup.
Over the last eight games, McDavid has poured 54 attempts on goal and 29 of those have been on target. He’s recorded at least three shots in seven of those matchups, which has partly been game-script dependent, but given our first leg we obviously need a competitive game in tonight’s matchup.
Leg 3 – Matvei Michkov Over 0.5 Points (-105 straight bet odds)
If this game is to reach overtime, it’s hard to imagine the Flyers generating less than two goals in regulation, as it’s unlikely they will keep the Oilers’ elite offensive stars entirely under wraps. I’m obviously a believer that Philadelphia is capable of making this game competitive, but the main reason why is that Edmonton’s shaky defensive play and suspect goaltending has been an issue all season long.
In a game where we will need some offence from the Flyers, Michkov presents as an interesting target. He reportedly came in to camp in poor shape and had a slow start to the year, but he has looked more threatening over the last two games and been rewarded with two points.
Tocchet has seemingly taken notice of the fact that Michkov’s play is coming around, as he has promoted Michkov to the top line alongside the red-hot Trevor Zegras and captain Sean Couturier. Zegras and Michkov’s skill sets should work well together, and this seems like a good opportunity to buy low on Michkov producing considering the price tag of -105.