NHL Odds, Betting Notes, & Picks For Nov. 11

In this article, I’ll outline the most noteworthy odds, news, and betting notes from the marquee matchups from Tuesday’s nine-game NHL Remembrance Day slate, and I’ll also offer up my best bet of the night.

Best bet – Dallas Stars moneyline: +100

The Dallas Stars opened at -120 to win Tuesday’s matchup versus the Ottawa Senators but have ticked up to +100 as sharp money has seemingly come in on the Senators. The line movement ahead of Tuesday’s matchup is puzzling to me, as there has been no significant lineup news coming out of each team’s morning skate, and it’s hard for me to see why the Senators deserve to be favoured in this matchup.

The Stars were expected to be the superior team this season and have outperformed the Senators thus far with a record of 9-4-3. Dallas holds a superior 51.88% expected goal share and is also arguably rostering more high-end offensive talents (especially with Senators captain Brady Tkachuk sidelined) than the Senators.

The Stars also project to have a goaltending edge in Tuesday’s matchup, as Jake Oettinger will face off against Linus Ullmark, and Oettinger has been significantly sharper this season.

Top centre Roope Hintz has also missed five games for the Stars this season and has looked true to form since returning to the lineup on November 6th, recording two goals and an assist. Hintz is a tremendous two-way skater, and having him back in the lineup makes the Stars a drastically more formidable side.

Both teams will be playing for the third time in four nights in this matchup, so aside from this being a home game for Ottawa, there is no significant situational advantage.

Los Angeles Kings @ Montreal Canadiens

Kings moneyline odds	-110
Canadiens moneyline odds	-110
Game total	Over 6 goals (+100), Under 6 (-120)
Time	7 p.m. ET

All odds courtesy of bet365.

• Oddsmakers have been reluctant to power-rate the Canadiens too highly this season despite their 10-3-2 record. Betting on the Canadiens to win every matchup this season would have yielded a +22.1% ROI. As this game is priced evenly despite Montreal having home-ice advantage, oddsmakers are suggesting that the Kings are, at a minimum, an equal side to Montreal despite owning a lesser record of 7-5-4.
• Another reason this game may still be priced evenly is that Samuel Montembeault has been confirmed as the Canadiens’ starting goaltender as opposed to dominant rookie Jakub Dobes. Montembeault has performed at a well below average rate this season with an .864 save percentage and a 3.46 GAA.
• Ivan Demidov has recorded seven points over the last six games, benefitting from a well-deserved role on the Canadiens’ top power-play unit, which he did not have earlier on in the season.

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Boston Bruins

Leafs moneyline odds	-135
Bruins moneyline odds	+115
Game total	Over 6.5 goals (+100), Under 6.5 (-120)
Time	7 p.m. ET

All odds courtesy of bet365.

• These Atlantic Division rivals met last Saturday in Toronto, and the red-hot Bruins managed a 5-3 win. The Leafs played again Sunday versus the Carolina Hurricanes, falling 5-4 in what was a discouraging performance.
• The Bruins have won six straight games, yet are underdogs at home in a spot where they also have a rest advantage. Both teams hold equal underlying results over the last 10 games, as the Bruins hold a 46.18% expected goal share, while the Leafs hold a 46.17% expected goal share.
• There has been a big disparity between the way that both of those teams were expected to play this season and the way that they have actually played. The Leafs have been much worse defensively than expected, while the Bruins have scored at the 12th-highest rate in the NHL, which has proven my preseason beliefs about the team’s offensive upside quite wrong.
• While both teams have played surprisingly high-event hockey, the Leafs own the fourth highest shooting percentage in the NHL, while the Bruins rank seventh. The Bruins rank 19th in save percentage, while the Leafs rank 27th.
• Both teams are expected to have solid goaltending, while Boston in particular was not a team expected to finish chances at a high rate. Saturday’s 5-3 final may suggest another high-scoring affair, but in general it would be wise to expect some regression offensively from both sides, while Anthony Stolarz and Jeremy Swayman are both potential candidates for better play moving forward.

Washington Capitals @ Carolina Hurricanes

Capitals moneyline odds	+140
Hurricanes moneyline odds	–165
Game total	Over 6 goals (-115), Under 6 (-105)
Time	7 p.m. ET

All odds courtesy of bet365.

• The Capitals limp into arguably the toughest road game in hockey with a record of 3-6-1 over their last 10 games and without the services of regular second-line centre Pierre-Luc Dubois. Washington’s process at even strength has continued to look quite solid, but it has had a tough time converting on scoring opportunities and has been drastically outplayed in special teams play.
• In particular, Washington’s top line of Dylan Strome, Alex Ovechkin, and Anthony Beauvillier has drastically underperformed its analytical expectations this season. Strome, Ovechkin, and Beauvillier have generated 4.97 xGF/60 in 82 minutes of even-strength play, which is the highest rate in the NHL among offensive trios that have played at least 70 minutes together this season.
• Andrei Svechnikov has recorded four points over the last three games, and has seemingly found his form playing on the top line alongside Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis after a poor start to the year.

Calgary Flames @ St. Louis Blues

Flames moneyline odds	+125
Blues moneyline odds	–150
Game total	Over 5.5 goals (-125), Under 5.5 (+105)
Time	8 p.m. ET

All odds courtesy of bet365.

• This matchup features the bottom two teams in the NHL squaring off. Both teams hold a -19 goal differential, but the Blues have earned three less points in one less game and feature much stronger underlying metrics.
• The Flames held the lowest shooting percentage in the NHL last season (7.26%) after finishing with the second-lowest shooting percentage in the NHL last season. They continue to generate a respectable amount of shots on goal, but a lack of high-end skill continues to prevent them from generating a solid output of truly threatening looks.
• While the Flames can’t buy a goal, the Blues can’t buy a save. Jordan Binnington and Joel Hofer have combined for the lowest save percentage in the NHL (.852), which has been the greatest reason for the Blues’ surprisingly poor start.
• Jordan Kyrou responded to being made a healthy scratch with a strong performance on Saturday, recording a goal and a +1 rating. I was personally interested in targeting him in the prop market in today’s matchup, but surprisingly he was back on the team’s third line at Monday’s practice and Tuesday’s morning skate.

San Jose Sharks @ Minnesota Wild

Sharks moneyline odds	+175
Wild moneyline odds	-210
Game total	Over 6.5 goals (-110), Under 6.5 (-110)
Time	8 p.m. ET

All odds courtesy of bet365.

• The second matchup of the season in Minnesota between these two sides. The Sharks won the previous matchup 6-5 in overtime, a game that saw Macklin Celebrini and Kirill Kaprizov combine for six points.
• Mats Zuccarello has skated alongside Kirill Kaprizov on the top line as well as on the Wild’s highly effective top power-play unit in both matchups since returning from injury. Though Zuccarello did not record a point in Sunday’s matchup versus the Flames, he and Kaprizov flashed their strong chemistry in Friday’s matchup versus the New York Islanders.
• The Sharks are 7-2-1 over the last 10 games and could pull back into a playoff spot with a win in Tuesday’s matchup.

Anaheim Ducks @ Colorado Avalanche

Ducks moneyline odds	+205
Avalanche moneyline odds	–250
Game total	Over 6.5 goals (-130), Under 6.5 (+110)
Time	9:37 p.m. ET

All odds courtesy of bet365.

• The Ducks rank first in the NHL in averaging 4.13 goals per game, while the Avalanche rank second with an average of 4.00 goals scored per game.
• While, as expected, the Avs have been dominant offensively, they have also allowed the lowest xGA/60 in the NHL (2.60).
• Nathan MacKinnon leads all NHL skaters with 29 points in 16 games played. Leo Carlsson is tied for second with 25 points in 15 games played.
• The Avalanche are 4-0-2 on home ice this season.

Winnipeg Jets @ Vancouver Canucks

Jets moneyline odds	-125
Canucks moneyline odds	+105
Game total	Over 6 goals (-105), Under 6 (-115)
Time	10 p.m. ET

All odds courtesy of bet365.

• The Jets’ underlying results suggested they were due for negative regression, and they have lost three straight in regulation entering this matchup by a combined score of 9-2.
• The Jets only lost four straight games once during last year’s Presidents’ Trophy-winning campaign.
• Connor Hellebuyck rested in Sunday’s matchup versus the Ducks and is expected to get the start Tuesday evening. Hellebuyck has saved 11.9 goals above expected in 11 appearances this season and is the betting favourite to win the Vezina Trophy for a second consecutive season.
• Kiefer Sherwood leads all Canucks skaters with 10 goals in 17 games played, and is expected to skate on the second line alongside Brock Boeser and Lukas Reichel in tonight’s matchup. He is priced at +250 to score in Tuesday’s matchup.