Join Canada Sports Betting’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL player prop bets available from Thursday’s nine-game slate.
Best bet-Jordan Kyrou over 0.5 points: -115
Jordan Kyrou over 0.5 points
Things have gotten ugly quick for the St. Louis Blues, who rank last in a stacked Central Division with a record of 4-8-2 entering tonight’s matchup with the Buffalo Sabres. St. Louis has received the worst goaltending in the league from Jordan Binnington and Joel Hofer, which has routinely put the team in situations where it is forced to chase offence.
Kyrou has still recorded at least one point in 57.14% of games played this season, but there is no disputing that the Blues need more from a player who is expected to be the second most productive skater on the team and who is arguably the most dynamic offensive threat.
Kyrou was one of many Blues’ skaters that bounced back last season after Jim Montgomery was appointed head coach, racking up 38 points in the final 42 games. His underlying results this season are still quite strong, as he already holds a +4.7 expected goals above replacement rating and has shown his usual flashes of offensive brilliance, but consistency has been an issue.
It wouldn’t be shocking to see Montgomery go back to his stacked top line of Kyrou, Robert Thomas, and Pavel Buchnevich for tonight’s matchup, but if not, we are perfectly fine with this price if Kyrou remains on the second line alongside the team’s leading scorer, Pius Suter, as well as captain Brayden Schenn. The trio has generated 3.33 xGF/60 this season and scored 3.36 goals per 60 where it counts.
The Sabres have allowed 3.84 xGA/60 this season, which is the fourth-worst mark in the NHL. Alex Lyon has had a brilliant start to the season, which has helped to mask the Sabres’ defensive shortcomings, but it has been confirmed that Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen will start in tonight’s matchup.
Luukkonen holds an .877 save percentage in his first two appearances of the year and played to a -8.6 GSAx rating in 55 appearances last season.
Best bet-Brayden Point over 2.5 shots on goal: +165
Brayden Point over 2.5 shots on goal
Point’s long price of +165 to record three shots on goal certainly jumps out as one of the better player prop bets from tonight’s nine-game slate. Point has recorded three shots or more in four of the last six games, totalling 17 shots on target in that span.
There’s a lot of randomness to shot generation in the NHL, and blindly backing shot props based off game logs is not likely to outperform oddsmakers’ sharply concocted algorithms.
Point is not just any average skater that happens to have poured in shots at a higher than expected rate recently. He’s one of the best players in the game and is playing alongside arguably the second best playmaker in the NHL in Nikita Kucherov.
Considering Point’s historic shot volume, current role, and recent level of play, it is hard for me to see why this price is so long.
Dating back to the start of last season, Point has recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in 43.3% of all games played. He’s currently playing alongside Nikita Kucherov and Brandon Hagel, a line that has been quite effective recently, which is no surprise given the excellence of all three skaters.
The Vegas Golden Knights are a better-than-average defensive side and offer a tough matchup, but it is also likely that in the majority of game scripts head coach Jon Cooper is going to need to lean heavily on his stacked top unit in tonight’s matchup.