In this article, I’ll outline the most noteworthy odds, news, and betting notes from the marquee matchups from Monday’s four-game NHL slate, and I’ll also offer up my best bet.
Best Bet—Blackhawks Moneyline: +130 (bet365)
Blackhawks moneyline vs. Kraken
The Blackhawks entered the season as the odds-on favourite to finish dead last in the NHL but have outperformed expectations early on, playing to a record of 5-4-3. Betting on the Blackhawks to win each of their 12 games would have yielded a +10.6% ROI, as online sportsbooks have been reluctant to adjust their power ratings too significantly.
Chances are the Blackhawks will regress and finish as a bottom-five team this season, but there are numerous valid arguments that suggest they won’t be nearly as awful as oddsmakers expected entering the season.
The Blackhawks’ young blue line actually looks quite solid and is a strength relative to other teams that currently hold similar power ratings. Alex Vlasic, Sam Rinzel, Artyom Levshunov, and Wyatt Kaiser all entered the league as relatively highly rated prospects, and it’s not that surprising that they have combined to make the Blackhawks blue line respectable this season.
Connor Bedard looks to be much improved in his third NHL campaign, and it certainly helps that he has slightly more help up front now than in his first two years in the NHL. Former Kraken winger Andre Burakovsky has started to elevate his game, while Frank Nazar has powered the team’s second line to respectable results.
Over the last eight games, the Blackhawks hold a 50.08% expected goal share and have actually outshot their opponents in that span.
If the Blackhawks can actually continue to own a respectable share of the overall run of play, it should continue to lead to decent results, as Spencer Knight has been rock-solid in goal.
Knight holds a +7.2 GSAx rating and a .913 save percentage in nine appearances this season. Knight’s work last season suggests his strong start is no fluke, as he played to a +6.9 GSAx in 38 appearances.
The Kraken, meanwhile, hold the NHL’s worst expected goal share over the last eight games. They don’t have much in the way of true star power up front, and top forward Jared McCann’s absence from the lineup has been significant.
While it’s still a bet that will lose more often than it wins, the Blackhawks seem to be overvalued Monday in being priced at +130. At +120 or better, I see value in backing a scrappy young Blackhawks side to steal this one on the road.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
| Penguins moneyline odds | +145 |
| Maple Leafs moneyline odds | -170 |
| Game total | Over 6.5 goals (-110), Under 6.5 (-110) |
| Time | 7:30 p.m. ET |
- The Penguins have greatly overachieved oddsmakers’ expectations at 8-3-2, and betting on them every game this season would have netted a +40.5% ROI, while betting on the Leafs in every matchup would mean a -17.1% ROI.
- Over the last 10 games, the Maple Leafs do hold superior underlying results, which, coupled with the Leafs’ preseason power rating, is why they are still considered fairly heavy favourites.
- Tristan Jarry is expected to start in goal for the Penguins. Jarry is enjoying a bounce-back season thus far, playing to a .923 save percentage and 5-1-0 record throughout his first six starts.
- Ben Kindel has taken over the role vacated by Rickard Rakell on the Penguins’ top power play.
- Justin Brazeau is listed as day-to-day after missing Saturday’s matchup versus the Winnipeg Jets. Philip Tomasino was elevated into Brazeau’s spot on what has been a highly effective second line playing alongside Evgeni Malkin and Anthony Mantha.
- William Nylander is listed as day-to-day after missing Saturday’s matchup but was on the ice at Monday’s morning skate. Chris Tanev will remain out.
- Easton Cowan skated alongside John Tavares and Nylander at Monday’s morning skate and was the fourth forward on the Leafs’ top power-play unit.
Auston Matthews anytime goal-scorer
Vancouver Canucks vs. Nashville Predators
| Canucks moneyline odds | +100 |
| Predators moneyline odds | -120 |
| Game total | Over 5.5 goals (-115), Under 5.5 (-105) |
| Time | 8:30 p.m. ET |
- Though the Predators have looked to be a comparably poor side as last season, they are slight favourites because of the Canucks’ lengthy injury list and shaky underlying profile.
- Conor Garland, Filip Chytil, Jonathan Lekkerimaki, Nils Hoglander, Derek Forbort, Victor Mancini, and Teddy Blueger will miss this matchup for the Canucks.
- Canucks captain Quinn Hughes is drawing closer to returning to the lineup and is listed as day-to-day ahead of this matchup.
- These teams faced off on October 23rd, and the Predators earned a 2-1 victory, outshooting the Canucks 35-22.
- Recently acquired forward Lukas Reichel centered the Canucks’ second line on Saturday and skated on the team’s second power-play unit. He has recorded zero points in four matchups with his new side.
Edmonton Oilers vs. St. Louis Blues
| Oilers moneyline odds | -140 |
| Blues moneyline odds | +120 |
| Game total | Over 6.5 goals (+100), Under 6.5 (-120) |
| Time | 8:30 p.m. ET |
- The Blues have dropped seven straight games and allowed 4.42 goals against per game in that span.
- Blues goaltenders Jordan Binnington and Joel Hofer have combined for the lowest save percentage in the NHL (.836).
- Oilers head coach Kris Knoblauch continues to routinely shuffle his top two offensive lines and top power play. Andrew Mangiapane skated alongside Connor McDavid and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins on the top line Saturday, while Jack Roslovic played on Leon Draisaitl’s unit as well as the top power play.
- Jake Neighbours will miss this contest for St. Louis, while top forward Robert Thomas is questionable.
Chicago Blackhawks vs. Seattle Kraken
| Blackhawks moneyline odds | +130 |
| Kraken moneyline odds | -155 |
| Game total | Over 6 goals (+100), Under 6 (-120) |
| Time | 10 p.m. ET |
- Connor Bedard has put up 15 points in 12 games this season and enters this matchup on a four-game points streak (4 G, 4 A).
- Andre Burakovsky is expected to remain on the Blackhawks’ top line and top power-play unit as he faces off against his former side. Burakovsky has put up five points over the last three games and nine points in 11 games played this season.
- The Kraken are 3-0-2 on home ice this season, while the Blackhawks are 2-2-2 on the road.