There’s an unprecedented number of teams set to compete for soccer’s biggest prize this summer at the 2026 World Cup in North America. With 48 countries and 104 games spread across three nations—Canada, Mexico, and the United States—all signs are pointing toward a spike in drama. Traditional betting favourites like Brazil, France, and England will arrive with heavy expectations, but the expanded field opens the door for dark horses to disrupt the odds and reshape the tournament narrative.
Nations that have never progressed out of the group stage suddenly have a chance to venture into uncharted territory; eight of the best third-placed teams advance to the Round of 32 along with the top two teams in each of the 12 groups of four nations.
Optimism will be high for mid-tier teams, but they shouldn’t get too carried away. Since 1986, the last 10 World Cups have been won by teams that were among the top-five favourites to lift the trophy at odds of +1200 or less.
This article breaks down the top five World Cup betting favourites and their odds of capturing soccer’s most revered prize:
Top 5 World Cup betting favourites
There’s not much separating the cream of the crop. Spain is the top choice to win in North America, but that doesn’t mean that picking La Roja is the smart play.
Only three pre-tournament favourites have won the World Cup since 1966: Brazil (1970 and 1994) and Spain (2010). Teams ranked lower than the favourite won the other 12 tournaments over the last 60 years.
The top five betting favourites this year have won over 50% of the World Cups (12 of 22) since the inaugural tournament in 1930.
| Nation | Outright odds (Bet99) | Implied probability | World Cup trophies (last title) |
| Spain | +450 | 18.2% | 1 (2010) |
| France | +500 | 16.7% | 2 (2018) |
| England | +600 | 14.3% | 1 (1966) |
| Brazil | +725 | 12.1% | 5 (2002) |
| Argentina | +800 | 11.1% | 3 (2022) |
1. Spain (+450)
Reason to pick Spain: Spain will be the team to beat at the 2026 World Cup, according to Bet99 and several other bookmakers. Head coach Luis de la Fuente’s squad is poised for a deep run this summer, as the betting market anticipates continued success for a Spanish team that’s matured and evolved into an even greater powerhouse than the side that dominated its way to winning Euro 2024. With Lamine Yamal headlining a squad loaded with creative talent and a structured defense, Spain has all of the tools needed to win the World Cup for the first time in 16 years.
Reason to fade Spain: There’s not much upside in picking the World Cup favourite. Considering how tight things are among the top five, the +450 odds suggest the public is going all-in on Spain. Sharp bettors will likely fade the European champs in favour of a team with similar upside that offers higher value. Additionally, Spain’s expected group stage triumph will put De la Fuente’s side on a collision course with France in the semifinals.
2. France (+500)
Reason to pick France: There are plenty of reasons to back France at the 2026 World Cup. Headlined by impactful stars such as Kylian Mbappe, Ousmane Dembele, Michael Olise and others, Les Bleus have the quality and depth to field two teams capable of winning the tournament. More importantly, France knows what it takes to engineer an extended run at the World Cup after appearing in the last two finals. Although France’s 2018 triumph is still fresh, the country will be out for revenge after its bitterly disappointing loss to Argentina on penalties in the 2022 World Cup final.
Reason to fade France: Nobody has as much talent as head coach Didier Deschamps has at his disposal. A deep squad is a luxury only a select number of teams can enjoy, but it can also be a curse if Deschamps fails to identify the combination of players that perform best together. Also, like Spain, France’s expected group stage victory will put the country on a tricky path to the final.
3. England (+600)
Reason to pick England: Like France, England had to make some difficult decisions during squad selection. Several high-profile names were left out of Thomas Tuchel’s 26-man squad, but England comes into the 2026 World Cup with one of the most complete teams at the tournament. The odds reflect England’s positive progression and experience at major tournaments, with The Three Lions finishing as runner-up in the last two European Championships. Set-pieces are likely to be integral in England’s attacking approach, along with dominating possession in the final third.
Reason to fade England: Of the five favourites, no country has waited longer than England to return to glory. Sixty years have passed since England won the World Cup on home soil. And while the nation has arguably the best domestic league, England has repeatedly crumbled under pressure at the World Cup. England finished in the top four in 2018, but might struggle to make it that far in 2026, as Tuchel’s side faces a difficult route to the semifinals given that the nation is likely to face a tough South American team in the quarterfinals.
England to win the World Cup
4. Brazil (+725)
Reason to pick Brazil: On paper, Brazil’s attack is never the issue, as head coach Carlo Ancelotti has some of the best forwards in the world to selevt. It’s the shaky defense that’s held Brazil back since winning the 2002 World Cup. But this edition of the Selecao appears to have figured it out. With anchors like Gabriel and Marquinhos at the back, the defense is good enough to help Brazil add another star to the famous yellow tops. At +725 odds, there’s plenty of upside here for bettors.
Reason to fade Brazil: Despite improvements at the back, Brazil’s struggles with quick counter-attacks was exposed during CONMEBOL qualifying. Brazil’s defense conceded the second most goals en route to a fifth-place finish out of the six teams that qualified from South America. The biggest risk to Brazil’s World Cup campaign is elimination at the hands of an elite European nation.
5. Argentina (+800)
Reason to pick Argentina: Argentina will always have a chance to win the World Cup as long as Lionel Messi’s available. The competition isn’t the same in Major League Soccer compared to his time in Europe, but Messi, who turns 39 in June, is performing at an elite level that should have Argentiina fans excited about the country’s prospects of defending the World Cup. But Argentina is much more than just a one-man show. The country dominated CONMEBOL qualifying table, finishing nine points ahead of second-placed Ecuador despite Messi’s absence from seven of the 18 qualifiers.
Reason to fade Argentina: Argentina shouldn’t have any problems getting through the group stage, but could face a significant challenge to its title defense in an epic World Cup battle against Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portgual. Messi might have the individual edge on Ronaldo, but Portugal has a squad built to beat an ageing side like Argentina.
Best Bet – Brazil
For decades, Brazil has struggled to reclaim its place as the top soccer nation in the world. That ends this year when the nation wins the World Cup on American soil for the second time as one of the World Cup betting favourites.
Brazil’s been the most popular country for for several decades. Its undeniable popularity probably peaked around 1998. After winning the 1994 World Cup in the United States, the world clamored to watch greats such as Ronaldo, Rivaldo, and Roberto Carlos at the 1998 World Cup in France. Selecao games were must-watch, but despite being the favourite to win in 1998, Brazil lost the final against France.
But Brazil’s popularity endured. After capturing a record fifth World Cup in Japan in 2002, Brazil enjoyed the title as pre-tournament favourite four of the next five World Cups. However, that sixth star above Brazil’s crest has proved elusive for a nation that struggles to get past the quarterfinals.
A soccer powerhouse like Brazil at +725 is a steal that sharp bettors are sure to lock in before the tournament starts. Under the guidance of a revered coach like Ancelotti, we’re expecting the Selecao to be a far more mature side that will dominate the competition on the way to capturing a record sixth World Cup trophy.
