EURO 2024 Semifinal Odds (July 9) – Spain vs. France Predictions

Kylian Mbappe of France, whilst wearing a Black Protective Face Mask, celebrates after teammate Randal Kolo Muani scores his team's first goal during the UEFA EURO 2024 round of 16 match between France and Belgium at Düsseldorf Arena on July 01, 2024 in Dusseldorf, Germany.

And four remain. After three weeks of action, England, the Netherlands, Spain, and France are the only sides still standing at EURO 2024 in Germany. The initial field of 24, through the group stage, Round of 16, and quarterfinals has narrowed down to these contenders.

England and the Netherlands will meet on Wednesday, but the semifinals kick off on Tuesday with the first match, an epic clash between Spain and France in Munich.

3:00 p.m. ET Headliner: Spain vs. France

Spain Win+180France Win+215Draw+185
Over 1.5 Goals-189Under 1.5 Goals+150BroadcastTSN
All odds courtesy of Betano Canada

Spain came into the match with momentum on their backs. La Roja knocked the host nation out, dispatching Germany in the quarterfinals. Spain’s Dani Olmo struck the first blow in the second half, but Florian Wirth popped up with an equalizer in the 89th minute to send the game to extra time. Then, with penalty kicks looming, Mikel Merino got on the end of an Olmo delivery to nod in a 119th-minute winner, leaving little time for the Germans to rally.

Having won all three group-stage matches before knocking out Georgia and Germany, Luis de la Fuente’s side is the only team to win all five games en route to the semifinals. Spain scored the most goals (11) at the EUROs, tied with Germany; with three shutout victories in the group, they conceded just twice, Wirth’s header and an own-goal against Georgia.

But no team has ever won six straight at the EUROs. The Spanish will be without a handful of key members: Dani Carvajal and Robin Le Normand will be suspended, while Pedri’s availability is in doubt after coming off injured early against the Germans.

France, by comparison, has limped to this point.

The defence has been impressive, conceding just once through five matches – a penalty kick at that, but with just three goals over that span, it has needed to be. Les Bleus advanced past Portugal in the quarterfinal on penalty kicks following a scoreless draw. There they were a perfect five-for-five, Joao Felix’s miss proving the difference, and Theo Hernandez confidently struck and converted his to send them to the next round.

Didier Deschamps’ star-studded side has struggled to convert chances. Of the three goals registered, two were own goals, and the third was a penalty kick, the only goal from Kylian Mbappe in Germany. But this French team has form on the massive stage. World Cup champions in 2018, runners-up in 2022, and runners-up at EURO 2016, they know how to get the job done.

Tuesday will be the 37th meeting all-time between the two nations. Spain has won 16, France 13, and the other seven have ended level. The most recent meeting was in the final of the 2021 UEFA Nations League, where the French won 2-1, with Mbappe scoring the game-winner in the 80th minute after the two traded goals around the hour mark.

Since 2000, Spain has won six matches to France’s four with a single draw. This will be the sixth meeting at a major tournament. France won three of the first four – the other being a draw – but Spain won the most recent one, the quarterfinal at EURO 2012.

Game Bets To Consider

  • The line is incredibly tight heading into this one, with Spain as a slight favourite. Leaving aside the aforementioned trends of how the teams have looked in reaching this point, there is very little to separate them. Both teams have game-breakers, sound defensively, and have tons of experience in these situations, both for club and country. It will come down to who seizes the moment on the day, who will step up and be the hero for their nation. With it essentially being a toss-up, there is some value in picking a straight winner either way, but for a little extra flavour, pairing the winner with how they got to this stage sees those returns jump dramatically. Via Method of Qualification going with Spain in Extra Time comes in at +1000, while France on Penalties sits at +750. For a slightly more well-rounded option, there is Game to be decided in Extra Time – Yes at +460 and Game to go to Penalties – Yes at +330.
  • If one is feeling French on the day, Betano are offering enhanced odds on a combination of To Qualify & France Over/Under Corners with France & Over 4.5 at +380 – France has averaged a little under six corners per match thus far.
  • One category worth a browse is Man of the Match. Dani Olmo, who scored and assisted for Spain against Germany, sits at +900, while Kylian Mbappe, who, despite the protective mask, is expected to be the main threat for France, comes in at +500.

Bet on Spain vs. France

ESP +180
FRA +215

Latest EURO 2024 Futures Odds

Here are the latest EURO 2024 Futures odds, heading into the matches on July 9:

All odds courtesy of Betano Canada

Portugal, Switzerland, and Turkey lost in the quarterfinals, putting them out of the running to win. The remaining sides have been reshuffled.

Spain are still favourites, though their odds have lengthened a little. Their semifinal opponents, France, moved up in the rankings and have seen their odds narrow. England dropped below the French but have also narrowed slightly. The Netherlands have the longest odds, but those, too, have tightened since their victory over Turkey. Since the final four were set, there have been no market shifts.