NHL Betting Preview (Mar 2): Rangers vs. Maple Leafs Odds

Two of the hottest teams in the NHL meet up for the first time in a little over two months, to decide a season series that has been split up until this point. It’s the Blue and White versus the Broadway Blueshirts, or as better known, the Toronto Maple Leafs and the New York Rangers. There are few better matchups for a Saturday night on Hockey Night in Canada, so let’s dive into the action.

Bet on Maple Leafs vs. Rangers

NYR +105
TOR -125

The Maple Leafs are home moneyline favourites, coming in at -125.

Maple Leafs vs. Rangers odds

Maple Leafs Moneyline Odds-125
Rangers Moneyline Odds+105
Puck Line oddsMaple Leafs -1.5 (+195), Rangers +1.5 (-240)
Total Goals line6.5 goals (over +100, under -120)
Time/DateMar. 2, 7:00 p.m. ET
TVBroadcast: CBC, Sportsnet
Stream: Sportsnet+
(How to watch the NHL in Canada?)

All odds courtesy of

About the Maple Leafs (34-17-8 SU, 22-37 ATS, 32-25-2 o/u)

The Maple Leafs confirmed that some coincidences are too fun not to turn into realized dreams on Thursday night when they hosted the Arizona Coyotes. Before that game, the last time the Leafs had beaten the Yotes in regulation at home was on October 17th, 2002, which I pointed out pre-game to be the same day that Matthew Knies was born.

Those who took our Twitter advice to scoop up a Knies any-time goal at +320 were very happy when the man of the hour opened up the scoring with his eleventh of the season off a nasty Mitch Marner drop pass, and Toronto added a bit of insurance early in the second through Tyler Bertuzzi and Auston Matthews. Alex Kerfoot converted on our insistence that he’d grab a revenge goal with a shorthanded marker, and Logan Cooley gave Toronto some nerves in the third, but an empty netter from William Nylander put any worries to rest and secured a 4-2 win.

Shortly after the game, it was announced that the Leafs also made a move on the trade market, acquiring Ilya Lyubushkin from Anaheim for a 3rd round pick, with an additional sixth-round pick going to Carolina in exchange for third-manning additional salary retention (and technically including the KHL rights to Kirill Slepets). Lybushkin, who previously played with the Leafs in 2021/22, is a depth defenceman who has struggled mightily since that season, but Toronto hopes they can get him going again while he provides them with a right-hand shot.

About the Rangers (40-17-3 SU, 30-30 ATS, 29-28-3 o/u)

If there’s one team hotter than the Maple Leafs right now, it’s the Rangers. Heading into last week, New York was on a whopping ten-game winning streak that almost extended through February. A 4-2 loss to the Blue Jackets snapped it, though they faced Columbus again three days later and got revenge via a 4-1 win.

Perhaps the biggest part of this run has been fantastic goaltending. Igor Shesterkin, who had been having a below-average season up until February, went 7-0-0 on the month with a 0.953 SV% and just twelve goals against. Jonathan Quick, who is suddenly having his best season in over half a decade at the age of 38, kept the momentum going with a 3-1-0, 0.922 February.

It’ll be interesting to see what the Rangers do in the next few days. Their shot metrics are pretty underwhelming for a team that has the record that they do, but they’ve found ways to win, their netminders are getting hot, and they have enough talent to at least consider going for it in any given year.

Last Matchup

The season series between these two teams has been a mixed bag for Toronto, with the bad end of it being the most recent of the two games to date. On December 19th, the Rangers visited Scotiabank Arena and got revenge for a Leafs win the week prior, potting five goals in the second and third periods to secure a three-goal victory. Auston Matthews had both Toronto tallies. Most peculiar about this game was the fact that there were only four penalty minutes given, in the form of two minors against the Leafs.

Projected Lineups

Today’s Toronto Maple Leafs LinesToday’s New York Rangers Lines
Matthew Knies – Auston Matthews – Mitch Marner
Tyler Bertuzzi – Max Domi – William Nylander
Bobby McMann – John Tavares – Nick Robertson
Pontus Holmberg – David Kampf – Ryan Reaves

Morgan Rielly – Ilya Lyubushkin
T.J Brodie – Jake McCabe
William Lagesson – Simon Benoit

Starting In Goal
Ilya Samsonov
14-5-6, 3.25 GAA, 0.881 SV%
Chris Kreider – Mika Zibanejad – Kaapo Kakko
Artemi Panarin – Vincent Trocheck – Alexis Lafreniere
Will Cuylle – Jonny Brodzinski – Jimmy Vesey
Adam Edstrom – Barclay Goodrow – Matthew Rempe

Ryan Lindgren – Adam Fox
K’Andre Miller – Jacob Trouba
Erik Gustafsson – Braden Schneider

Starting In Goal
Igor Shesterkin
26-12-1, 2.65 GAA, 0.911 SV%

From the looks of it, Lyubushkin will debut exactly where he was when he left, next to Morgan Rielly. Nick Robertson draws out of the lineup to facilitate the return of Calle Jarnkrok, who has missed the past couple of weeks with a thumb injury.

Auston Matthews to score a goal


Key Injuries

Joseph Woll returned to the Maple Leafs on Thursday, and looked solid in his first game back, ultimately stopping 30 of 32 shots against. His return is a welcome add to the roster and removal from the IR.

Unfortunately, Mark Giordano takes his place on the IR, after going head-on into the boards in the first period of action. He’ll miss a not-insignificant period of time while he recovers. In the immediate, we are waiting for answers on Timothy Liljegren and his injury, as he missed another game to this day-to-day issue on Thursday.

For the Rangers, both of their absences are long-term, with Filip Chytil (upper body) and Blake Wheeler (leg) both expected to miss the rest of 2023/24.

  • The Rangers are 6-4 in the last ten games between these two teams, dating back to December 2019. Toronto, to their credit, have won 3 of the last 4. The Rangers have dominated the puck line over the last ten, going 8-2, and the total goals over is a perfect split of hits and misses at five.
  • The Maple Leafs are 8-2 in their last ten games, going 7-3 against the puck line (which is among their best runs this year). They’re 7-3 on the total goals line, favouring the over.
  • The Rangers are similarly hot, going 9-1 in their last ten games, and 6-4 against the puck line. Their total scores in games have been more under-friendly tough, including seven unders in their last ten and five unders in their last five.
  • Bread is freshly baked on Broadway right now, with Artemi Panarin leading the Rangers in points over the last ten games. His four goals trail a few of his peers, but the eleven assists put him over the top. Vincent Trocheck (5G 5A) and Adam Fox (2G 9A) are also in the point-per-game club for that stretch.
  • Also in said club is their goals leader over the last ten games, Chris Kreider. His 30 on the year trails Panarin’s 35, but in the Rangers’ last ten, he has seven goals. He also leads the team in shots on goal in that stretch, with 39.
  • Don’t look now, but with his big night behind him, Matthew Knies has eight points (3G 5A) in Toronto’s last ten games.

Wagers To Consider

  • Today’s Auston Matthews anytime goal price is -125. A goal would give him 54 on the season, which would tie him for second highest in a Leafs season, trailing only himself. It would also match the Rangers’ record, just for some extra entertainment.
  • On the other side, expect Chris Kreider to maintain his nose for the net as well, with his shot line set to 2.5 at -180. Interestingly, Toronto has been one of the better teams at keeping him from finishing over the years, with only Boston (7.4%) holding the career 15.1% finisher to a lower shooting percentage (8.3%).
  • Will the Mitch Marner playmaking tour continue? He has as many assists (17) as shots on goal in the last ten games. You can get him for over 1.5 points at +160, or if you want to play it safe, a single assist at -160.

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