NHL Betting Preview (March 7): Bruins vs. Maple Leafs Odds

It’s only been a few short days since the Toronto Maple Leafs and Boston Bruins faced off, but they have to get right back at it again on Thursday night. This rendition comes in Beantown, and with the Maple Leafs playing the second half of a back-to-back. If Monday was tough, this will be a lot tougher. Could they still pull it off, though? Let’s dive in and take a look at what’s at stake.

Bet on Maple Leafs vs. Bruins

TOR +120
BOS -140

The Maple Leafs are road underdogs ahead of the festivities, coming in at +120 on the moneyline at bet365, a number that has shortened slightly towards Toronto overnight.

Bruins vs Maple Leafs Odds

Maple Leafs Moneyline Odds+120
Bruins Moneyline Odds-140
Puckline oddsMaple Leafs +1.5 (-210), Boston -1.5 (+175)
Total 6.5 goals (over +105, under -125)
Time/DateMarch 7th, 7:00 p.m. ET
TVBroadcast: TSN
Stream: Sportsnet+
(How to watch the NHL in Canada?)

All odds courtesy of

About the Maple Leafs (35-18-8 SU, 22-39 ATS, 33-26-2 o/u)

The Maple Leafs bounced back from their Monday loss to Boston with a quiet but fruitful game against the Buffalo Sabres on Wednesday. Looking to respond to a 9-3 beating given to them by their QEW rivals several weeks back, William Nylander broke the ice for the Leafs in the opening minutes of the second and Toronto was able to keep their opponents off the scoreboard for nearly half the game. Victor Olofsson did respond for Buffalo, but it was their only goal of the game.

The stalemate continued for a while but a familiar hero showed up in overtime. Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews had not had good games to this point – one might wonder if they’ve got whatever illness is going through the team at the moment – but a heavy shift from Marner culminated in a feed to Matthews, who scored his 54th of the season to win the game.

Ultimately, Toronto will be very happy with the two points. At the same time, it’s hard not to think they’ll be tired going into Thursday’s game, between the lack of rest, the extra time, and the mildly sluggish pace they’d played through yesterday.

About the Bruins (36-13-15 SU, 32-32 ATS, 31-33 o/u)

Like Toronto, Boston has played one game since Monday, hosting the Oilers on Tuesday. This was a very dull game that didn’t get its first goal until the 44-minute mark when Boston struck first courtesy of Pavel Zacha. It was a lead that looked like it could end up being enough for a while, but with 80 seconds remaining in regulation, Leon Drasaitl tied the game with his 31st of the season. Two minutes and eighteen minutes into overtime, Draisaitl struck again, sending the Bruins home with just a point.

The biggest thing to take away from it and the Toronto game, though, was that both Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark had strong nights after a couple of weeks of the Bruins being uncharacteristically leaky. Now with just three goals against in two games and a couple extra minutes, Boston can look ahead with a bit more confidence.

Last Matchup

Again, we go back less than 72 hours for the latest edition of this matchup, which the Bruins carried relatively easily. Their recent struggles seemingly vanished the second the puck dropped, and before the first period could close out, Boston had picked up two quick goals from Morgan Geekie and Pavel Zacha. It was a hole Toronto couldn’t dig out of, spread further by Jake DeBrusk in the second before John Tavares scored Toronto’s lone goal in the third. Zacha added a little insult to injury with ten minutes remaining and while the Leafs pressed late, they couldn’t muster up a true threat.

Projected Lineups

Today’s Toronto Maple Leafs LinesToday’s Boston Bruins Lines
Matthew Knies – Auston Matthews – Mitch Marner
Tyler Bertuzzi – Max Domi – William Nylander
Bobby McMann – John Tavares – Calle Jarnkrok
Noah Gregor – David Kampf – Ryan Reaves

Morgan Rielly – Ilya Lyubushkin
T.J Brodie – Jake McCabe
William Lagesson – Simon Benoit

Starting In Goal
Joseph Woll
9-6-1, 2.82 GAA, 0.914 SV%
Danton Heinen – Pavel Zacha – David Pastrnak
Brad Marchand – Charlie Coyle – Jake DeBrusk
James Van Riemsdyk – Morgan Geekie – Trent Frederic
Jakub Lauko – Jesper Boqvist – Justin Brazeau

Matt Grzelcyk – Charlie McAvoy
Mason Lohrei – Brandon Carlo
Parker Wotherspoon – Kevin Shattenkirk

Starting In Goal
Jeremy Swayman
20-6-8, 2.49 GAA, 0.920 SV%

The Maple Leafs could see some shifting of the above lineup, with Pontus Holmberg getting a night off as a healthy scratch on Wednesday and Jake McCabe missing that game due to illness. Both could theoretically draw back in.

Boston’s lineup gets a bit of a shuffle from what we expected on Monday, but we’ll likely see the same group or similar tonight.

Pavel Zacha (BOS) under 0.5 points


Key Injuries

Not much has changed with these two teams on the injury front. Mark Giordano is skating and Conor Timmins is recovering from his mono, but neither are known to be drawing in at this time. Jake McCabe missed yesterday with an illness, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him back.

For Boston, they’re still not getting back Matthew Poitras (shoulder), and Hampus Lindholm (undisclosed). Matt Grzelcyk returned from his day-to-day injury against Toronto on Monday, as did Justin Brazeau.

  • The Bruins record in their last 10 against Toronto remains 6-4 straight-up, now dating back to November 2021. Boston has won the last six matchups between the two, with Toronto taking the previous four.
  • The Bruins are 4-6 in their last 10 games, both straight-up and against the puckline. They’ve cleared the total goals over in six of their last 10 games.
  • The Leafs tend to play things close when they’re the underdogs, going 5-5 straight-up in their last 10 games listed as the underdog and putting up a 7-3 record against the puckline.
  • David Pastrnak had three assists against the Leafs, and a goose egg against the Oilers, leaving him at the exact same “last 10 games” pace as he had going into Monday: four goals, eight assists, 41 shots on goal. His point and shot totals lead the team in that stretch, though Morgan Geekie (five) is now the leader in goals.
  • William Nylander leads the Maple Leafs in their own 10-game stretch, putting up 16 points (7G, 9A) in that stretch. Interestingly, despite that lead, he’s second in the team over those 10 games in goals (Auston Matthews, nine), assists (Mitch Marner, 13), and shots on goal, (36, second to Matthews at 40).
  • Morgan Rielly has just three points in Toronto’s last 10 games, but it’s worth remembering that three of those games were part of his suspension and that he had a rough first week back. Since then, he has had points in his last three games.

Wagers To Consider

  • The OT winner preserved our perpetual Matthews watch for a little while longer. He sits at +105 for an anytime goal Thursday, trailing Pastrnak (-120) for the most likely to score. I’d actually be a little cautious on this one, despite the uncharacteristic value. Matthews didn’t look great Wednesday night and I can’t imagine a back-to-back with travel will make that better. With that said, it’s there if you want to take the chance, and now that I’ve downplayed him, I look forward to him shutting me up here.
  • Pavel Zacha has three goals in two games this week, including a pair in the Monday game. With that said, he’s been streaky throughout the year and his effort on Tuesday only featured one shot on goal, so I wonder if there’s value in taking the under on him getting a point (-140) while people think that he’ll keep the streak going.
  • If you’re looking at Same Game Parlays, the best boosted option for me backs the Bruins. That includes a Boston win, three shots for Pastrnak, and a goal for Brad Marchand. That sits at +400, up from its typical tag of +350.

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