NHL Betting Preview (Feb. 27): Golden Knights vs. Maple Leafs Odds

The Toronto Maple Leafs are currently on their longest winning streak in the Salary Cap era, despite being in the midst of a season that, at times, has felt like a lesser variant of this core than previous years’ efforts. Maybe this is the turning point for them, or maybe it’s an aberration. Whichever it is, they’ll be looking to extend seven to eight when they take on the Vegas Golden Knights, a team that they beat in their home barn less than a week ago.

Bet on Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights

VGK +140
TOR -165

Toronto are moderate home favourites, sitting at -165 on the moneyline at bet365.

Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights odds

Maple Leafs Moneyline Odds-165
Golden Knights Moneyline Odds+140
Puckline oddsMaple Leafs -1.5 (+150), Golden Knights +1.5 (-165)
Total 6.5 goals (over +100, under -120)
Time/DateFeb. 27, 7:00 p.m. ET
TVBroadcast: TSN
Stream: Sportsnet+
(How to watch the NHL in Canada?)

All odds courtesy of

About the Maple Leafs (33-16-8 SU, 21-36 ATS, 31-24-2 o/u)

The runaway freight train that has been the Maple Leafs of the past couple of weeks made its most recent stop in Denver, looking to get revenge for their earlier-season loss to the Colorado Avalanche at home. In that game, they blew a multi-goal lead and never pulled back into the fight. In this one, the exact opposite happened. Artturi Lehkonen put the Avalanche up 1-0 just two minutes in following a puck-over-glass penalty to Toronto, and Andrew Cogliano doubled up nine minutes later. A Ross Colton penalty got Toronto some momentum back, though, and Tyler Bertuzzi made the most of it with a power-play goal a few seconds later.

Bertuzzi would prove to be the hero of this game, finally having the breakthrough the fans have been hoping for all season. He scored another in the second to tie the game, with Mitch Marner soon following to take the lead. Mikko Rantanen tied the game up for Colorado in the third, but with three minutes remaining and the Avs once again in penalty trouble – this time for their own puck-over-glass mistake – Bertuzzi wrapped up the unlikely hat trick. Goals eight, nine, and 10 on the season jumped his shooting percentage on the year by 2.5% in one night. Oh, and did we mention it was his birthday?

Toronto will be hoping to harness that energy in this game. The recent run has put them back in the top 10 of the standings both by points and points percentage, and that’s a spot they’d like to remain, if not push even further upward.

About the Golden Knights (32-19-7 SU, 29-29 ATS, 27-31 o/u)

Things haven’t gotten a lot better for the Golden Knights since their night against the Maple Leafs. In fact, they’ve arguably only gotten worse. To kick off a five-game Eastern Conference road trip, Vegas flew into Ottawa, and while the Leafs were taking care of the Avalanche, the Golden Knights were losing their fifth game of six. While they opened the game with an early first-period goal and added insurance early in the second, three unanswered goals from the Senators put them behind the looking glass. An equalizer with 75 seconds remaining in regulation was enough to get them a point, but ultimately, Ottawa had the last laugh with a single shootout goal from Tim Stutzle that continued their recent improvement.

The defending champs now find themselves slipping a bit in the standings, sitting 11 points behind the Vancouver Canucks for the top spot in the Pacific. They’ve got a few things going in their favour, such as the Canucks above them and Oilers below them also sputtering a bit in recent weeks, and the closest non-playoff team to them being nine points behind (St. Louis). But it’s still a run they’d prefer to not be on right now.

Last Matchup

As implied, these two teams last faced each other just five days ago at T-Mobile Arena, and that was a game that went in Toronto’s favour in a hurry. Jake McCabe opened the scoring at the exact midway mark of the first period, and within four minutes, Adin Hill was chased out of the net. Within six minutes, it was 4-0 Maple Leafs and the game felt like a foregone conclusion. Vegas did put up an effort to try to keep things close, but Toronto added three more goals, including Auston Matthews’ 52nd of the year, to wrap up a 7-3 victory before the night was out.

Projected Lineups

Today’s Toronto Maple Leafs LinesToday’s Vegas Golden Knights Lines
Matthew Knies – Auston Matthews – Mitch Marner
Tyler Bertuzzi – Max Domi – William Nylander
Bobby McMann – John Tavares – Nick Robertson
Pontus Holmberg – David Kampf – Ryan Reaves

T.J Brodie – Timothy Liljegren
Morgan Rielly – William Lagesson
Simon Benoit – Jake McCabe

Starting In Goal
Ilya Samsonov
14-4-6, 3.18 GAA, 0.883 SV%
Brendan Brisson – William Karlsson – Jonathan Marchessault
Ivan Barbashev – Chandler Stephenson – Michael Amadio
Paul Cotter – Nicolas Roy – Keegan Kolesar
Mason Morelli – Byron Froese – Sheldon Rempal

Alec Martinez – Alex Pietrangelo
Brayden McNabb – Shea Theodore
Nicolas Hague – Zach Whitecloud

Starting In Goal
Adin Hill
14-5-2, 2.27 GAA, 0.927 SV%

We don’t expect to see Toronto mess much with success here, with the only potential change seeming to be on Timothy Liljegren’s end. Liljegren missed practice yesterday, with head coach Sheldon Keefe citing a nagging injury. Should Liljegren come out, Mark Giordano will return to the mix.

Auston Matthews to score a goal


Key Injuries

Outside of that Liljegren update, the two biggest notes we’ve gotten are both on goalies. Joseph Woll has completed his conditioning stint and has been called back up to the big club, meaning we will likely see him in game action soon. Meanwhile, Matt Murray is skating and “seeing pucks” again according to Keefe, though the timeline on him still seems to be way in the future, if at all this season. His original timeline scheduled him for an April-to-June recovery at a minimum.

Vegas’ injury list is not a fun time right now. Jack Eichel is recovering from a knee injury suffered in January and while he might return on this road trip, the exact timeline is unknown. Mark Stone is week-to-week with a spleen issue. Pavel Dorofeyev is on IR with an upper-body injury, as is Brett Howden, as has been William Carrier for quite some time now.

  • The Maple Leafs are 6-4 in their last 10 games against the Golden Knights, which are the only 10 games they’ve ever played against the Golden Knights. Every season series has been a one- or two-game sweep for the winner since 2018/19, so that might be worth keeping in mind…
  • Beyond that, Vegas has taken the puckline in six of those 10 games, and the total goes over has been hit in half of them.
  • Toronto is 8-2 in their last 10, and a downright decent 6-4 against the puckline (5-0 in their last five as well!). They’ve hit the goals over in seven of 10.
  • Vegas are 4-6 both straight-up and against the puck line in their last 10, and have cleared the total goals over in six of those games, including the last three consecutively.
  • There aren’t a ton of hot sticks in Vegas right now, but Jonathan Marchessault is getting the job done. The original misfit has eight goals and three assists in Vegas’ last 10 games, leading the team in goals and points. His 29 shots on goal are tied with William Karlsson for the lead over that same time frame.
  • An under-the-radar point producer for Vegas right now is Nicolas Roy, who has produced a goal and seven assists in their last 10 games.
  • We all know the deal with Toronto’s top guys, but it’s worth noting that the secondary scoring is starting to click. Besides Bobby McMann’s wild ride (seven goals in Toronto’s last 10 games), Matthew Knies has seven points, Max Domi has six points, and Bertuzzi’s hat trick has him up to six in that timeframe as well.

Wagers To Consider

  • Auston Matthews to score anytime is a permanent fixture on this board, and today, you can find that at -120. If you’re feeling really comfortable with him popping off after a night removed from the back of the net, get him for 2+ at +425.
  • If you’re feeling the Golden Knights to snap their streak and get revenge for last week, a same-game parlay featuring them winning, Jonathan Marchessault scoring a goal, and him getting 3+ shots comes in at +500, boosted from +450.
  • Another fun boosted same-game parlay is the Double William special, which features Nylander (Toronto) and Karlsson (Vegas) to each score a goal for their team at +750, up from +625.
  • John Tavares has been back on track lately, and after that mildly embarrassing empty-net flub on Saturday, I think he’ll be a little more motivated to hit the net tonight. I’d look at his over 3.5 shots prop at +125.