Monday Night Football aside, Week 11 of the NFL season didn’t look like it was going to be terribly interesting on paper. What we ended up getting from the Sunday slate exceeded expectations, with a few barnburner games. The Bears and Lions went down to the wire. The Browns edged the Steelers on a walk-off field goal. And the Sunday Night game between the Broncos and Vikings ended up producing a thrilling fourth quarter.
So, there is no better way to top off the week of action than with a genuine marquee matchup. In a rematch of Super Bowl LVII, the Philadelphia Eagles will head to a hostile Arrowhead Stadium to take on the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs.
Bet on Eagles vs. Chiefs
Given where both teams are currently sitting, this could also very well be a preview of Super Bowl LVIII. This game will have a big impact on how things play out in both the AFC and NFC, particularly in the race for the No. 1 seed. Let’s get into it and check out this firecracker of a MNF matchup.
Eagles vs. Chiefs odds
|Eagles Moneyline Odds||+125|
|Chiefs Moneyline Odds||-145|
|Spread odds||Chiefs -2.5|
|Over/Under||45.5 points (over -110, under -110)|
|Time/Date||Nov. 20, 8:15 p.m. ET|
About the Eagles (8-1 SU, 5-2-2 ATS, 5-4 o/u)
From the way fans and pundits talk about the Eagles, you would think that they were barely playing .500 football. Yet here we are, Week 11 coming to a close, and the Eagles have a chance to pick up their ninth win of the season.
Sure, quarterback Jalen Hurts hasn’t quite been the same dominant player he was a year ago. And while the rushing attack is still quite good, it isn’t on the same level as a year ago. Only A.J. Brown has really blown the doors off this year, putting his name in the mix for best receiver in the league.
Yet in spite of all of that, the Eagles find themselves in familiar territory. Aside from a shocking loss on the road to the banged-up Jets, the Eagles have found a way to get things done. They are coming off of a bye, which followed a tight 28-23 win over their rivals from Dallas.
The Eagles haven’t blown anyone out this year. They’ve had some tight games – an overtime win against the Commanders, a 25-20 win in Foxborough – but at the end of the day, good teams find a way to win, and the Eagles are a good team. In truth, they might still be the best team in the NFC, even if they haven’t been hitting their top gear as often as they did last year.
About the Chiefs (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS, 2-7 o/u)
The Chiefs are in rarified air. Though they aren’t quite at the level of Tom Brady’s Patriots, that doesn’t seem out of the realm of possibility. They have been to the Super Bowl three times in the past four years, winning a pair of them in the process.
Quarterback Patrick Mahomes is as good as ever. With nearly 2,500 yards and 17 touchdowns, he is among the frontrunners for league MVP. Travis Kelce might be getting more attention off the field these days, but he is still one of the best tight ends to ever do it.
If anything, it looks like the Chiefs are only giving it 85-90% on most days. They’ve been caught sleeping at times – a shocking 24-9 loss to the Broncos three weeks ago – but they’ve been generally consistent, finding a way to win in seven of their nine games so far. Like the Eagles, they haven’t demolished anyone, but they are a dangerously efficient team.
What makes this year’s incarnation of the Chiefs even more dangerous is their defence. They have given up the fewest points so far this year, an average of 14.6 points per game (also the best in the league). They are fourth in total defence and fourth against the pass. You can run at them, but even their defence against the run ranks in the middle of the league. This might be the most well-rounded Chiefs team in years, and that is a scary thing for opponents.
Despite being considered one of the best defences in the league, there is a glaring problem with the Eagles. Being 13th in the league in points against is not necessarily worrying, but allowing the fourth-most yards through the air in the league certainly is.
And, to put it mildly, the Chiefs are not the team that you want to have trouble against in the air. Mahomes can buy time like few others can and turn nothing into something. If the Eagles can’t get it together when it comes to the pass rush, it is going to be a long night for them.
In turn, the Chiefs will need to work on their defence against the run. They aren’t porous per se – they give up the 16th-most rushing yards per game – but the Eagles are the eighth-ranked rushing attack in the league at just a hair under 130 yards per game. The Chiefs’ strength is against the pass, and Hurts hasn’t been the same guy he was a year ago.
D’Andre Swift should have a lot of work to do in this one, and he should have some success. If the Eagles can control the game on the ground and limit how much time the Chiefs spend on the field, they could potentially suffocate them. Both will want to make their presence felt, it’s just a matter of who can carve out that slight edge.
A.J. Brown over 80.5 receiving yards
For the Eagles, just about everyone on the injury report practised in some way from Thursday through Saturday. The only name that is potentially concerning is tight end Dallas Goedert. He injured his forearm ahead of the bye week and did not practise at all last week. He’s a game-time decision but it would not be shocking in the least if he is left out for this one.
As for the Chiefs, the injury report is long but encouraging. Important pieces Justin Reid (calf), L’Jarius Sneed (knee), and Drue Tranquill (shoulder) all practised in full. By this point in the NFL season, every team is mostly banged up. The Chiefs are fortunate that it isn’t keeping anyone out of the lineup as of yet.
It’s been a while since weather really impacted a game, but it looks to be the case in this one. There is a very good chance of rain on Monday Night, which could alter a game plan or two. On top of that, winds could be hitting speeds of up to 40 km/h. With temperatures around 6 C, things are going to get chilly and uncomfortable.
- Despite having one of the best and most revered offences in the league, the Chiefs have been an automatic under of late. They are just 2-7 over/under and have played under the total in five straight games. Against a top-level defence like the Eagles, the under certainly looks to be in play.
- The Eagles come into this game as 2.5-point underdogs. They are a very solid 5-2-2 against the spread this season, including 3-1-1 in their last five games. They also started the season 2-1-1 against the spread. This has all the makings of a tight game, putting the Eagles in a good place to cover.
- Both teams have been prone to streaks this year. The Eagles won five straight to begin the year before losing to the Jets. The Chiefs, for their part, pulled off six in a row between the season-opening loss to the Lions and their stunning defeat at the hands of the Broncos in Week 8.
Player prop trends
- Hurts is averaging 1.67 passing touchdowns per game. He has been hot over the last three weeks, throwing for multiple touchdowns in all three contests. Prior to that, he only managed the feat once in six weeks to start the year. Could this be Hurts finding his groove? He’s +115 to throw over 1.5 passing TDs in this one.
- The story on offence for the Chiefs – other than Mahomes – is the emergence of receiver Rashee Rice. He is averaging 3.56 receptions per game, a number he has bested in four of five. He has also found the end zone in three of his last five after a slow start to the season. His line for receptions is 4.5 (over +125, under -155) and he’s +240 to score a touchdown.
- Brown has been an absolute monster this season, averaging 111.67 receiving yards per game. With 66 yards against Dallas two weeks ago, it was the first time he’d failed to top that average number since Week 2 against the Vikings. His line is 80.5 receiving yards (over -110, under -110) on Monday night.
Wagers to consider
- Though the Chiefs’ pass defence is good, take Brown to cover any yardage prop. He’s set at 80.5 yards in this one. Hammer the over (-110) until he shows that he won’t produce in more than a one-off situation.
- Mahomes is averaging just over 270 yards per game this season through the air. His passing yardage prop is set at 283.5, a number he has only topped three times this year. Mahomes has hit his over just twice this season, so take the under (-110).
- Despite a hot start to the season, Swift has not gone over his rushing yardage prop in the last six weeks. Defences seem to have figured him out, so take his under here (59.5, -110).