The Denver Nuggets are on the verge of history.
Denver is one win away from the first NBA title in franchise history heading into Game 5 of the NBA Finals on Monday night against the visiting Miami Heat.
Bet on the NBA Finals Game 5
The Nuggets cruised to a 108-95 victory in Game 4 last Friday to take a commanding 3-1 series lead heading back to the high altitude in Denver.
Denver is a nine-point favourite to close out the series on Monday and the total is set at 209 points, the lowest total we’ve seen so far in the series.
Heat vs. Nuggets odds
|Nuggets Moneyline Odds||-380|
|Heat Moneyline Odds||+300|
|Over/Under||209 points (over -110, under -110)|
|Series odds||Nuggets -8000, Heat +1700|
|Time/Date||Monday, June 12, 8:30 p.m. ET|
Stream: NBA League Pass
(How to watch the NBA in Canada?)
The Nuggets have taken five of the six meetings this year and have covered the spread in each of those wins. The teams have combined for a 3-3 over/under record in their previous matchups this season.
|Date||Home Team||Spread Odds||Result||Total|
|June 9, 2023 (Game 4)||Miami||Nuggets -2.5||108-95 Nuggets||211.5 (under)|
|June 7, 2023 (Game 3)||Miami||Nuggets -3.5||109-94 Nuggets||213 (under)|
|June 4, 2023 (Game 2)||Denver||Nuggets -8||111-108 Heat||216.5 (over)|
|June 1, 2023 (Game 1)||Denver||Nuggets -9||104-93 Nuggets||218.5 (under)|
|Feb. 13, 2023||Miami||Nuggets -1||112-108 Nuggets||217.5 (over)|
|Dec. 30, 2022||Denver||Nuggets -4||124-119 Nuggets||224.5 (over)|
About the Heat (13-9 SU, 14-8 ATS, 10-10-2 o/u)
All three of Miami’s losses in the series have been by double digits, but the Heat did rally to steal a 111-108 victory in Game 2 in Denver.
Coach Erik Spoelstra is 13-9 (.591) all-time in elimination games, which is the fourth-highest winning percentage in league history (minimum 20 games). He’ll need to find a way to slow down Nikola Jokic, who has been running wild on the Heat all series long (and against every opponent throughout these playoffs), in order for the Heat to extend this series to a Game 6 in Miami.
Jimmy Butler has averaged 21.8 points per game in the series and has only played over his points line once (Game 3 – 28 points). His line is 26.5 points (over -115, under -115) tonight.
Centre Bam Adebayo is having a fantastic series offensively for Miami. He’s averaging 22.3 points and 12.5 rebounds during the first four games of the series, a big increase from his postseason averages of 17.8 points and 9.8 rebounds.
Miami’s defence has also been stout this postseason, holding teams to under 50% from the field in 15 of its 22 playoff games, including under 40% from three-point range 16 times. The Heat also lead all teams in hussle stats during these playoffs, recording 344 deflections, 129 loose balls recovered, and 24 charges taken.
About the Nuggets (15-4 SU, 12-7 ATS, 9-10 o/u)
The Nuggets shot 50% from three-point range (14-of-28) in Game 4, their highest mark of the 2023 postseason.
Jokic accounted for three of those conversions from long range en route to another huge postseason performance. Although he fell short of another triple-double, Jokic posted a stat line of 23 points, 12 rebounds, four assists, three steals, and three blocks. He’s the first player since Kevin Durant in 2017 to post such a stat line in the postseason. The Serbian is averaging an incredible 30.1 points, 13.3 rebounds, and 9.8 assists during Denver’s current playoff run.
Canadian Jamal Murray finished with 12 assists on Friday after having 10 assists in each of the first three games of the series. He joins Magic Johnson as the only players to have 10 or more assists in four consecutive games in a single NBA Finals series. Johnson did it four times (1983, 1984, 1985, and 1991). Murray’s line is 8.5 assists (+100 over) in Game 5.
Aaron Gordon helped tip the scales in Denver’s favour in Game 4 after he recorded a career playoff-best 27 points on 11-of-15 shooting. The forward also drained three of his four three-point attempts.
Heat guard Tyler Herro (hand) has been upgraded to questionable and could return to action. Bettors will want to monitor his status leading up to the tip.
Denver has no new injuries to report.
- The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last five games in Denver.
- The under is 7-1 in Miami’s last eight games.
- The under is 9-4 in Denver’s last 13 home games.
- Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last six games.
Player prop trends
- Murray has cleared his assists line in four straight games, averaging 10.5 dimes in The Finals. As previously mentioned, he’s +100 to clear 8.5 assists in this one.
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope continues to be a sneaky play in the rebounds category. The guard has cleared his rebounds line in seven straight games, averaging 3.2 boards per game during that span. His line is 2.5 rebounds (-155 over).
- Miami forward Max Strus has cleared his line in the rebounds + assists category in six straight games, averaging 6.5 during that span. His line is 3.5 (-135 over).
- Bruce Brown has drained a three-pointer in all four games of the series. He went 3-for-5 from long range in Game 4 and is a steep -230 to record over 0.5 three-pointers.
Wagers to consider
- Fourth quarter spread: Heat +2 (-115). The Heat are +89 in fourth quarters this postseason, the third-highest plus/minus for a single postseason in NBA history and they’ve recorded four wins when entering the fourth trailing by at least eight points, the most during a single postseason in league history. In this series, Miami has a +20 point differential in the fourth quarter.
- SGP – Heat to win, Butler to score 20 or more points, Adebayo to score 20 or more points: +600. This three-leg parlay has been boosted from +550 at bet365. If you like the Heat to extend the series, it’s a given that both Adebayo and Butler will lead the way. Adebayo has scored 20 or more points in each of the four games in the series, while Butler has hit that mark in three of the four contests.
- Heat +9: -110. Miami is 8-2 ATS when facing facing a spread of seven points or more this postseason. The Heat have been far too scrappy to let this do-or-die game get out of hand. Denver may prove to be too much for the Heat, but Miami should at least keep Game 5 relatively close.