The Yankees moneyline at (-140) with bet365 is our prediction for Wednesday’s Wild Card Game 2. New York went 93-68 in the regular season and beat Boston 9-0 in Tuesday’s series opener, but Sonny Gray gives the Red Sox a much tougher counter on the mound than that score suggests.
Red Sox vs. Yankees Prediction
Yankees moneyline: (-140) at bet365
New York’s 46-34 record at Yankee Stadium adds to the case for backing the home side. The Yankees also had 12 hits to Boston’s three in Game 1.
Gray posted a 2.72 ERA in the regular season and a 1.98 ERA in two starts against New York. Boston went 46-35 on the road, too. Those are real reasons to keep this a moneyline lean at the quoted price, not a claim that the Yankees are a lock.
Yankees moneyline
Red Sox vs. Yankees Odds
| Market | Pregame odds |
|---|---|
| Red Sox moneyline | (+120) |
| Yankees moneyline | (-140) |
| Run line | Red Sox +1.5 (-190), Yankees -1.5 (+160) |
| Game total | Over 6.5 runs: (-120), Under 6.5 runs (+100) |
| Date/time | Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2026, 8 p.m. ET |
| Venue | Yankee Stadium, Bronx |
Pregame odds courtesy of bet365.
Betting the Red Sox
Boston finished 87-75 and was better than its Game 1 showing suggests on the road, going 46-35 away from home. Still, three hits in a shutout loss make the offence the immediate concern for anyone taking the underdog at +120.
The Red Sox had a 3.54 staff ERA and a 3.00 bullpen ERA in the 2026 regular season. Aroldis Chapman, Garrett Whitlock and Garrett Crochet did not pitch in Game 1. Their Game 2 roles remain to be seen.
Betting the Yankees
Ben Rice went 4-for-5 with two home runs and six RBIs; that kind of production helped cover for Aaron Judge’s absence, but it’s not a sensible baseline for Game 2.
The Yankees’ regular-season staff ERA was 3.24, and closer David Bednar was not needed late in the opener.
Probable starting pitchers
Red Sox: RHP Sonny Gray (2.72 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 149 strikeouts in 169 innings)
Gray is Boston’s confirmed Game 2 starter. He threw six scoreless innings against Cleveland on Sept. 23.
Yankees: LHP Max Fried (2.80 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 104 strikeouts in 112⅔ innings)
Fried is confirmed for New York. He held Boston scoreless over eight innings with nine strikeouts on April 22, making this a matchup with quality starters on both sides. Fried threw 63 pitches against Boston on Aug. 29 in his first start back from a left elbow bone bruise; that earlier workload is not a stated limit for Wednesday.
Notable injuries and projected lineups
Roman Anthony left Game 1 in the sixth inning with right hand and wrist discomfort, and his Game 2 availability was uncertain afterward. Manager Chad Tracy said Anthony “took a check-swing and then another swing, and his hand flared on him, and it got uncomfortable, so we had to make a move there.” A right-wrist sprain in May had limited Anthony to 55 regular-season games.
Boston is also without Triston Casas (knee), Kutter Crawford (wrist) and Tanner Houck (arm). Willson Contreras played in Game 1 after missing eight of the Red Sox’s final nine regular-season games following a pitch to his hand.
Aaron Judge is off New York’s Wild Card roster while rehabbing a calf strain. Clarke Schmidt is out with an elbow injury.
Weather
Conditions listed for Yankee Stadium are cloudy and around 20 C, with wind near 5 mph and no precipitation. That alone isn’t a reason to play either side of the 6.5-run total.
Betting trends
- New York went 46-34 at home in the regular season; Boston went 46-35 on the road.
- Entering Game 2, the Yankees had won four of their past five games, while the Red Sox had won two of five. Both stretches include the postseason opener.
- The teams split an Aug. 29 doubleheader at Yankee Stadium: New York won 9-2, and Boston won 6-0.
Player prop trends
- Rice had 151 regular-season hits and added four in Game 1. Over 0.5 hits is (-210) at bet365, a short price even after Tuesday’s four-hit night.
- Fried’s strikeout line is 5.5 at bet365: Over (-105), Under (-130). His projection of 5.68 strikeouts sits close to that number.
- Gray’s 5.5 strikeout line is priced at (-115) on either side at bet365. His projection of 5.15 strikeouts doesn’t make either side an obvious second pick.
