With San Antonio narrowly favoured on home court, Victor Wembanyama’s Spurs welcome Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder to Frost Bank Center on Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2026. Tip-off for this regular-season matchup is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET.
The battle around the basket could help shape the betting action beyond the arc. Dylan Harper’s encouraging preseason shooting and Cason Wallace’s potential perimeter opportunities give us two made-threes props to attack, while an expectation of defensive intensity points us toward the Under.
Below are our three Thunder vs. Spurs predictions, followed by the matchup odds and a breakdown of each wager at the best NBA betting sites.
- Dylan Harper Over 1.5 Threes Made
- Under 231.5 Total Points
- Cason Wallace Over 1.5 Threes Made
Dylan Harper over 1.5 threes made
Harper’s work on his outside shot gives us a reason to back him from deep against Oklahoma City. During his preseason appearances in the Oct. 8–17 window, he averaged 2.0 made threes on 3.5 attempts per game. That’s an encouraging return heading into a matchup where the Thunder’s defensive approach could leave openings on the perimeter.
The confidence is there, too. Harper said he was “very confident” in his outside shot, explaining: “I’ve worked at it all summer, so there’s no reason for me to be hesitant. No reason to pull back. Biggest thing is just taking the right shots at the right time.”
A projected starting role could give Harper opportunities to put that work into practice, although neither a starting spot nor a steady diet of three-point attempts is assured. His short preseason run also leaves plenty to prove once the regular season gets rolling.
You need two makes to cash this prop, and Harper’s improved perimeter touch makes that a cautious target at 2.05. Back Harper Over 1.5 threes made, with shot volume the key risk.
Under 231.5 points
Expect both teams to make scoring around the basket hard work. Wembanyama’s presence anchors San Antonio’s interior defence, and our Under case rests on this matchup producing contested possessions rather than a free-flowing shootout.
The recent exhibition scoring offers some supporting context. During the Oct. 7–17 preseason window, San Antonio averaged 114.4 points scored and 108.8 allowed, while Oklahoma City averaged 109.8 scored and 114.25 allowed. Preseason rotations and minutes differ from regular-season basketball, so those figures aren’t a scoring forecast for Tuesday night.
Spurs coach Mitch Johnson said Tobias Harris will miss the opener while recovering from a left calf strain. Harris missed all five preseason games.
At 231.5, there’s little room for a late scoring surge: you need a combined total of 231 points or fewer. We’re counting on defensive resistance to carry this wager, not simply a repeat of exhibition scores. Take Under 231.5 total points.
Cason Wallace over 1.5 threes made
Wembanyama protecting the paint could push Oklahoma City to look outside for its offence and give Wallace the perimeter opportunities needed to knock down two threes.
Wallace averaged 4.5 three-point attempts during his preseason appearances in the Oct. 8–17 window, but converted only 1.0 per game. The attempts give this pick a route to cashing; the conversion is the clear concern. He needs a better shooting return than that short-run average, and a larger offensive role remains a possibility rather than a certainty.
This is a higher-variance lean on opportunity, not a bet on an established hot streak. If you’re playing Wallace, keep the stake modest and look for him to take advantage of the outside looks San Antonio could concede. Back Wallace Over 1.5 threes made.
Thunder vs Spurs odds
| Thunder moneyline odds | -105 |
| Spurs moneyline odds | -115 |
| Spread odds | Spurs -1.5 (-105), Thunder +1.5 (-115) |
| Game total | Over 231.5 (-108), Under 231.5 (-112) |
