Sunday’s 4:25 p.m. ET NFL kickoff at Lambeau Field pits the division-leading Chicago Bears against a Green Bay team still finding its footing, and our top Bears vs. Packers prediction is Bears -1.5 spread. Chicago has won three straight behind the NFL’s best rushing attack, while Green Bay enters off a disappointing home loss to Atlanta and has been outscored by 32 points this season.
The twist is that Chicago will likely once again be without starting quarterback Caleb Williams, who is sidelined by a Grade 2 hamstring strain. Backup Tyson Bagent will likely make his second straight start, leaning on a run game that has carried the Bears through Williams’s absence.
As always, shop around for the most favourable odds at the best NFL betting sites before locking in any wagers.
Bears vs. Packers predictions
- Bears -1.5: Chicago’s league-leading ground game, paced by Kyle Monangai, gives the Bears a foundation that travels well even with Bagent under center. Green Bay’s run defence has been one of the softer units in the league, allowing 5.5 yards per carry, the fourth-most in the NFL.
- Under 45.5 points: With Bagent at quarterback for Chicago and Green Bay still working through its own offensive questions, neither team projects as explosive through the air, making the lower total appealing.
- Bears team total over 23.5 points: Chicago has the NFL’s largest rushing-yardage gap over any other team (785 yards) and should be able to lean on the ground game to control this one regardless of Bagent’s passing numbers.
Bears vs. Packers odds
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Bears moneyline odds | -120 |
| Packers moneyline odds | +100 |
| Spread odds | Bears -1.5 (-105), Packers +1.5 (-115) |
| Game total odds | Over 45.5 points (-112), Under 45.5 (-108) |
| Date/time | Oct. 11, 1 p.m. ET |
About the Bears (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 1-3 o/u)
Chicago has quietly become one of the league’s most physical teams despite its quarterback situation. The Bears have tightened up defensively since a Week 1 shootout, allowing just 28 points combined over their last two outings, and their rushing attack has carried the offence in Williams’s absence. Monangai has emerged as the clear lead back, and head coach Ben Johnson has leaned into a run-first identity that has proven effective even with Bagent managing the passing game.
Williams will not practice this week as he continues to deal with his hamstring injury. Until then, Bagent — who went 5-of-9 for 54 yards in his most recent spot start — will again get the nod, putting extra pressure on Chicago’s defence and ground game to carry the load.
About the Packers (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS, 2-2 o/u)
Green Bay’s season has been defined by inconsistency. The Packers’ only home game to date resulted in a loss to Atlanta on Thursday Night Football in Week 3, and the team has been outscored by 32 points across its four games. Green Bay’s rushing attack has been the league’s least productive, managing just 232 yards on the ground, a steep contrast to Chicago’s league-best mark.
Green Bay is also still awaiting the regular-season debut of newly acquired pass rusher Micah Parsons, who is targeting a Week 6 return from a knee injury and won’t be available for Sunday’s game.
Betting Mismatch
The clearest mismatch here is on the ground: Chicago’s 785 rushing yards lead the NFL by a wide margin, while Green Bay’s 232 rushing yards rank last. That gap plays directly into the Bears’ favour, especially with Bagent at quarterback and the offence needing a reliable way to move the chains and control the clock.
Green Bay’s path to keeping this competitive likely runs through limiting explosive plays and forcing Chicago into obvious passing downs, where Bagent has been far less effective. Without Parsons available to boost the pass rush, though, that task becomes more difficult against a Bears offensive line that has given its run game plenty of room to operate.
Key Injuries
Chicago’s biggest absence remains Caleb Williams, who has not practiced this week and continues to be considered week-to-week with his hamstring strain. Running back Kyle Monangai is dealing with a hand injury suffered late in last week’s win and is iffy to play Sunday.
Green Bay will be without Micah Parsons, who is working his way back from a knee injury and targeting a Week 6 return. The Packers’ backfield and receiving corps have also dealt with various minor injuries throughout the season.
Weather
It won’t feel like fall in Green Bay on Sunday, with temperatures expected to reach 25 C under clear skies. Winds will be light and won’t be a factor.
Betting Trends
- The Bears are 8-3 against the spread in their last 10 games, while the Packers are just 2-7-1 against the spread over the same stretch.
- The Under has hit in 7 of the Bears’ last 10 games, while the Over has hit in 6 of the Packers’ last 10.
- Chicago has won three of its past four meetings against Green Bay.
- The Packers are 1-3 against the spread this season.
Player Prop Trends
- Bears WR Rome Odunze has recorded 40 or more receiving yards in six straight games dating back to last season. He’s around -115 to record over 39.5 receiving yards.
- Packers WR Matthew Golden has scored a touchdown in back-to-back games and is +165 to find pay dirt.
- Packers QB Jordan Love has thrown exactly two touchdowns in all four games this season. He’s +100 to throw for over 1.5 touchdowns.
