As we draw near to the first football Sunday of the 2026 season, it’s time to scour the lines and latest NFL odds and isolate some major upsets set to take place with our best NFL Week 1 underdog picks and predictions. Below, we’ve highlighted the top underdog teams to back to cover the spread or win straight up in their opening matchup of the year.
Don’t wait, head to one of the best NFL betting sites, load up your bet slips with our Week 1 underdog picks, and get ready to best the oddsmakers with these cheeky plays for Sunday afternoon.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+165)
- Atlanta Falcons (+200)
- Cleveland Browns (+325)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+165/+3.5)
Set for a barnburner with the Cincinnati Bengals, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are primed to start their 2026 campaign off with a victory this Sunday. In a battle between high-octane offences, expect the far-superior Bucs defence to be the difference-maker as they limit scoring chances from the Bengals, while Baker Mayfield and Co. sleepwalk their way to the end zone.
Even in a straight-up firefight, the Buccaneers can more than hold their own against the Bengals, as they sport a well-rounded roster full of explosive talent, a solid offensive line, and possess more versatility when compared to their opponent’s air raid offence.
Currently slated as 3.5-point underdogs, back the Buccaneers to survive the shootout, capturing the road win, and kicking off their campaign to regain the NFC South title with a bang in Week 1.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Moneyline
Atlanta Falcons (+200/+5.5)
There may be some concerns swirling around the quarterback position for the Atlanta Falcons, but don’t buy into the panic-induced media, and instead back the Falcons to get the win in the Steel City as they secure a road win over the Pittsburgh Steelers.
While the talk of the town has been about the health and play of Tua Tagovailoa, it seems people are forgetting about all the offensive issues that still exist for the Steelers. With a 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers being relied upon to lead the Steelers offence, as well as the team adjusting to their first season without Mike Tomlin as head coach in two decades, you can expect there to be a distinct learning curve as well as some steep limitations for them throughout the ball game.
Possessing a stellar offensive line and Pro Bowl talent at key skill positions, the Falcons will control play at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football while generating big plays downfield that the Steelers simply won’t be able to match. Get in on these odds before the oddsmakers get wise to how good this Falcons team ultimately will be, and hammer them to open the regular season with a victory against the Steelers.
Atlanta Falcons Moneyline
Cleveland Browns (+325/+8.5)
Rounding out our Week 1 underdog picks, it’s only fitting we back the Dawg Pound as the Cleveland Browns take care of business in their Florida road trip as they pull off the biggest upset of the day against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
While the Jaguars finished the 2025 season with a 13-4 record, don’t drink the Kool-Aid, as that was one of the most inflated records from last year. With many of their wins coming against weak competition and injured squads, they weren’t as good as their record suggested. After losing a few key players such as Travis Etienne in the offseason, this has set the stage for major upset potential in favour of the Browns.
Even without All-Pro pass rusher Myles Garrett, the Brownies still sport a solid defence that’s more than equipped to limit opposing offences and keep them within games. Additionally, the Browns invested heavily in their offence this season, bolstering their receiving corps with several top talents with major upside. Conversely, the Jags defence is subpar and will struggle to generate stops throughout the 2026 season, opening the door for their young offence to feast in Week 1.
I truly believe the Jaguars will be fully exposed in Week 1 as the Trevor Lawrence-led offence fails to produce big plays and falls into the Browns rough-and-tumble style, as the underdogs bark their way to a massive upset win and send your bankroll skyrocketing.
