We’re now in the dog days of summer and the slow period on the sports calendar, which means it’s a great time to hone in on your MLB bets and MLB player props, as baseball is the only major sport in season for the next several weeks. One of the most fun ways to bet on baseball is to wager on a player to hit a home run at long odds, but it’s also an incredibly difficult market to handicap and predict. Check out our top three home run picks for July 21, including some analysis on why we believe these three players are the best value bets to go deep.
James Wood (+210)
Wood to hit a home run
We’ll start by targeting James Wood to go deep at hitter-friendly Coors Field on Tuesday, where winds are projected to blow out to left field at 13 mph under hot and humid conditions.
Wood has cooled off a little bit after a red-hot run last week, but he’s still bashed five homers over the last 15 days with a 1.206 OPS. The Washington outfielder ranks in the 100th percentile in the majors in xwOBA (.425), xSLG (.602), average exit velocity (95.1 mph), barrel percentage (22%), and hard-hit rate (59.6%), so it’s not surprising to see his odds as short as +210 on Tuesday night in a ballpark that typically sees a ton of home runs (108 park factor for homers).
Michael Lorenzen, who owns an ugly 6.22 ERA across 21 appearances this season, is the projected starting pitcher for the Rockies. The opposition owns a combined 90.6 mph exit velocity off his pitches this season, ranking him in just the 12th percentile across qualified starting pitchers. He also owns a hard-hit rate of 46.4%, which should bode well for Wood’s chances of taking him out of the ballpark on Tuesday night.
Willson Contreras (+425)
Contreras to hit a home run
There’s no team hotter than the Boston Red Sox, who have rattled off an incredible 14 consecutive wins to vault back into the AL playoff picture. And a big reason for their resurgence is the leadership and hot bat of Contreras.
Boston’s fiery first baseman leads the team with 22 home runs this season, including two in his last four games. He’s also slashing an impressive .385/.500/.923 with a 1.423 OPS over the last seven days.
Contreras also has a pair of homers in just four career at-bats against Baltimore’s projected starting pitcher, Kyle Bradish, giving him added value as one of our home-run picks for Tuesday.
Rain is in the weather forecast for Tuesday night in Boston, but winds are also projected to blow out over the Green Monster in left field at 13 mph.
Victor Mesa Jr. (+550)
Mesa Jr. to hit a home run
Sometimes, you’ve just got to ride the hot bat when considering a wager on home run props.
Mesa Jr. is simply on fire right now, clubbing home runs in each of his last three games and in five of his last seven. This power surge has seemingly come of nowhere for the 24-year-old Rays outfielder, as he’s not typically known for his ability to smash home runs, and his advanced metrics aren’t overly impressive.
However, he does have a favourable matchup against a struggling Kevin Gausman on Tuesday night. Toronto’s projected starting pitcher has been awful in June and July after an impressive start to the campaign, allowing nine home runs over his last eight starts.
The roof will likely be closed at Rogers Centre in Toronto on Tuesday due to expected thunderstorms, but the venue still owns a 108 park factor for home runs overall, suggesting it’s an above-average park for the long ball.
