The Tampa Bay Rays will look to build on Monday’s convincing win over the Toronto Blue Jays when the AL East rivals continue their four-game series at Rogers Centre on Tuesday night. Tampa enters with momentum after snapping a five-game skid, while Toronto is running out of time to revive its playoff hopes before the trade deadline. Our Rays vs. Blue Jays prediction breaks down the best betting angles, odds, and player props, including a plus-money play on Chandler Simpson’s elite speed against Kevin Gausman in what could be another pivotal divisional matchup.
Rays vs. Blue Jays prediction
Chandler Simpson over 0.5 stolen bases: +202 @ bet365
Simpson to steal a base
There’s a strong case to be made for Simpson to steal a base off Gausman on Tuesday night.
Firstly, Gausman is one of the easiest pitchers in the majors to steal a base against due to his high leg kick and lack of a slide step. He also relieves heavily on a splitter, which is an incredibly difficult pitch for a catcher to pick and then throw to any given base. Gausman has allowed 11 stolen bases already this season, with just one runner getting thrown out.
Secondly, Simpson is doing an incredible job of getting on base recently, boasting a very impressive .384 on-base percentage over the past 30 days and a .400 OBP over the last seven. The Tampa speedster also has impressive career splits against Gausman, owning a .584 on-base percentage across 12 career at-bats against the right-hander.
Simpson, who averages an elite 29.5 feet-per-second sprint speed (96th percentile in the majors), managed a steal in the series opener against Toronto on Monday to bring his total to 24 on the season.
As always, shop around for the best MLB odds at the best MLB betting sites before locking in any wagers on our Rays vs. Blue Jays prediction.
Greg’s Blue Jays predictions are 21-18-2 for +2.49 units this season.
Rays vs. Blue Jays odds
| Rays moneyline odds | -110 |
| Blue Jays moneyline odds | -110 |
| Run line odds | Rays -1.5 (+155), Blue Jays +1.5 (-185) |
| Game total | Over 7.5 runs (-110), Under 7.5 (-110) |
| Date/time | July 21, 7:07 p.m. ET |
Betting the Rays (57-42 SU, 56-42-1 ATS, 45-52-1 o/u)
The Rays snapped a five-game losing streak with their convincing 7-1 victory over Dylan Cease and the Blue Jays in the series opener on Monday to help maintain their slim 1.5-game lead over the New York Yankees for top spot in the AL East.
Nick Martinez was fantastic on the mound for the Rays, scattering six hits while allowing just one run over six solid innings of work before turning things over to the bullpen, which tossed three scoreless frames to close out the game.
Three Rays went deep in the contest, including the red-hot Victor Mesa Jr., who has now homered in three consecutive games and four of his last six contests.
Betting the Blue Jays (46-54 SU, 46-54 ATS, 53-46-1 o/u)
The Blue Jays need to start piling up wins quickly if they intend to convince the front office to be buyers rather than sellers ahead of the Aug. 3 trade deadline. They find themselves 5.5 games back of the final Wild Card spot in the AL entering play on Tuesday, and if they can’t close that gap over the next two weeks, it might be hard to justify keeping the squad together for a potential playoff push.
Toronto is experiencing a major power outage at the plate right now, managing just three runs over its last three games, dropping the squad to last in the majors in runs scored per game at 3.98. For some context, the Blue Jays averaged 5.02 runs per game last season during their magical run to the World Series.
Probable starting pitchers
Tampa Bay: RHP Drew Rasmussen (7-5, 3.26 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 8.88 K/9)
Rasmussen has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season, but he’s been horrendous over his last two starts, surrendering six runs to the New York Yankees and five to the Houston Astros just prior to the All-Star break.
The veteran right-hander has made two previous starts against Toronto this season, and both yielded similar results, with Rasmussen allowing three runs over six innings of work in both of those contests while averaging just under a strikeout per inning.
Rasmussen’s cutter and off-speed pitches are especially tough on right-handed hitters, who are slashing just .159/.203/.269 with a .472 OPS against him this season.
Toronto: RHP Kevin Gausman (4-8, 4.33 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 9.29 K/9)
After starting the season strong, Gausman has fallen off a cliff over the past two months, compiling an 0-4 record with a 6.47 ERA in June and an 0-1 record with a 5.56 ERA across two July starts.
He’s had mixed results across two previous starts against Tampa Bay this season, surrendering six earned runs on 10 hits on May 11, after throwing six innings of two-run ball on May 5 against Toronto’s division rival.
Gausman has really struggled with his control recently, walking eight batters over his last two starts, while racking up his pitch count quickly in those outings.
Notable injuries
The following notable players are on the injured list for Tampa Bay:
- OF Gavin Lux (shoulder)
- OF Jake Fraley (groin)
- P Steven Matz (ankle)
- P Ryan Pepiot (hip)
The following notable players are on the injured list for Toronto:
- OF Jesus Sanchez (ankle)
- P Yimi Garcia (elbow)
- P Max Scherzer (back)
- OF Addison Barger (elbow)
- OF Anthony Santander (shoulder)
- P Joe Mantiply (knee)
- P Jose Berrios (elbow)
- P Cody Ponce (knee)
- P Bowden Francis (elbow)
Weather
Forecasts are calling for evening temperatures around 21 C with an 80% chance of a thunderstorm, which means the retractable roof at Rogers Centre will likely be closed. However, the chance of storms diminishes to 40% by 8 p.m. ET, so bettors will want to monitor the status of the roof leading up to first pitch.
Rays vs. Blue Jays betting trends
- The Rays are 6-1 SU vs. the Blue Jays this season.
- Toronto has hit the team total under in 13 of its last 18 games.
- The Rays have hit the team total under in 15 of their last 22 road games.
Rays vs. Blue Jays player prop trends
- Gausman has allowed two walks or more in six straight starts and eight of his last 10. He’s -155 to walk over 1.5 batters on Tuesday.
- Junior Caminero has hit safely in five straight games and is -235 to extend that streak.
- As previously noted, Mesa Jr. has homered in three straight games and four of his last six. He’s +470 to hit a home run.
