Our Astros vs. Blue Jays predictions will target the Blue Jays authoring a convincing win in a matchup where they hold a significant pitching edge with Trey Yesavage set to face off against Mike Burrows.
Toronto suffered a frustrating loss in a highly chaotic game Tuesday, as Shane Bieber was not sharp in his return to action before Tyler Rogers faltered in the ninth inning on a day where Louis Varland was unavailable to close things out. Former Blue Jay Joey Loperfido spotted the team a three-run lead in the top of the 11th after Toronto failed to get the ghost runner home in the bottom of the tenth inning.
The Blue Jays will look to respond and earn an important series win Wednesday with their excellent young righty facing off against a starter that has not turned in many quality outings this season.
It took until Yordan Alvarez’s third plate appearance, but the Blue Jays did opt to walk Alvarez in the fourth inning to help escape a two-out jam and cash Tuesday’s best bet. With the win Nick holds a record of +2.12 units across nine MLB betting predictions this season.
Astros vs Blue Jays Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 +135 (Bet365, Play to +120)
There’s not much cause for optimism surrounding Burrows, who’s a clear back-of-the-rotation arm and potentially may not still be getting regular starts if not for the injuries the Astros staff continues to deal with. Burrows has struggled to an ERA of 5.79 this season, with well below-average underlying metrics, including a 4.70 xERA and 4.68 xFIP.
Burrows holds a well below-average Stuff+ rating of 93, which correlates with an 18.6% strikeout rate and 86.3% zone contact rate. His more recent splits have been comparably ugly, as over his last six starts he has pitched to an ERA of 6.75 with an xERA of 5.69 and a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 5.0%.
Yesavage is in the midst of a tough stretch of results but looked excellent for the vast majority of his most recent start versus the Red Sox before allowing a pair of solo homers in the top of the eighth inning to ruin what was otherwise a dominant outing. Yesavage allowed just four hits and held an xBA of .174.
Though it was ultimately a highly disappointing result, the Blue Jays worked Houston’s staff heavily once again on Tuesday, and the lineup continues to feel much longer than it did earlier on in the season.
I’m still a firm believer in Yesavage and feel as though he should be well situated to build upon his strong outing at Fenway in this matchup. Toronto’s offense feels to be on the cusp of a full-blown breakout and should have a good chance of a productive day off of Burrows, which would then likely mean a game script where the Astros utilize their softer relievers.
At +135, there appears to be value backing the Blue Jays to wrap up this exciting back-and-forth series with a fairly convincing win
Astros vs. Blue Jays odds
| Astros moneyline odds | +135 |
| Blue Jays moneyline odds | -160 |
| Run line odds | Astros +1.5 (-160), Blue Jays -1.5 (+135) |
| Game total | Over 8.5 runs (-110), Under 8.5 (-110) |
| Date/time | June 24, 7:07 p.m. ET |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Betting Houston Astros
Houston’s starters have combined to work just seven and two-third innings in the first two games of this series, and both teams have effectively driven up pitch counts thus far.
Burrows has worked an average of 15.6 innings over his last ten starts, so he has given the team some length, and they will likely be forced to give him more length than may be preferred in this matchup. Batters have hit .295 against Burrows this season, and over his last ten starts, he’s allowed an awful xBA of .285.
Houston still offers a slightly better than average lineup despite its key absences from the lineup, and was able to take advantage of Bieber on Tuesday, who did not look overly sharp.
Following the strong offensive showing of Bieber, the Astros hold a 13th-ranked wRC+ of 104 versus righties this season. They have been the fourth most effective team in the league versus four-seamers this season but hold a -16 run value versus the slider and have been mediocre versus splitters.
The Astros have not yet faced off against Yesavage in his brief career, and hopefully will struggle to adjust to his ultra-high release point early on in Tuesday’s matchup.
Betting Toronto Blue Jays
Similar to the series opener, Toronto worked a lot of strong at-bats throughout Tuesday’s matchup and ultimately finished with 13 hits. But as has often felt to be the case, it clearly did not entirely pay off a number of crucial spots, most notably failing to get the ghost-runner home in the bottom of the tenth inning.
The Blue Jays have now hit 15 home runs over their last ten games. Carry rates have been up significantly across the league over the last month (more so than simply heightened temperatures in ballparks typically imply) but it’s still a very positive sign that the offense is trending towards what we saw last year.
Luis Urías did well to endear himself to the Blue Jays fanbase in his first appearance with the team, hitting an important two-run homer as well as some solid play in the field.
Daulton Varsho has not missed a beat since returning to the lineup, as he’s gone five-for-14 with four extra base hits. Varsho slugged .548 last season, and it feels as though his ability to hit for power is underrated and has been sorely missed at times this season.
