The AL East rivalry resumes Wednesday night at Fenway Park, and there’s plenty of intrigue surrounding this Blue Jays vs. Red Sox prediction. Toronto enters the matchup looking to build momentum after a convincing 6-1 win in the series opener, while Boston hopes to bounce back behind rookie left-hander Jake Bennett. With veteran Max Scherzer struggling mightily for the Blue Jays and Bennett still trying to establish himself at the major-league level, this matchup sets up as a potential high-scoring affair. Add in warm weather and hitter-friendly conditions at Fenway, and bettors could be in for plenty of offence.
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox predictions
First 5 over 5.5 runs scored: -102 @ BetRivers
F5 total over 5.5 runs
Both of these starting pitchers have struggled recently, and we have perfect weather conditions at Fenway Park with warm temperatures and light winds blowing out, setting up the recipe for some early runs on Wednesday night.
Toronto belted three home runs in Tuesday’s 6-1 victory in the series opener between these two teams, and it should take some of that momentum into this contest against a very inexperienced left-hander in Jake Bennett.
On the flip side, Boston should be able to put at least a few runs on the board against an aging Scherzer, who has a horrific 10.23 ERA across six appearances this season.
Wilyer Abreu (+340) to homer and Jarren Duran (+450) to homer @ Sports Interaction for a half-unit each
Duran to homer
We’re also going with a pair of half-unit plays on two of Boston’s most dangerous left-handed hitters to go deep on Wednesday night with Scherzer on the mound.
Left-handed batters own a lofty .322/.406/.661 slash line with a 1.067 OPS and six homers in just 59 at-bats against Scherzer this season, so it makes sense to target Boston’s two potent left-handed bats to go deep at Fenway Park.
Duran launched his 12th homer of the season on Tuesday and is riding a six-game hitting streak into action Wednesday, while Abreu has eight long balls and a solid .525 slugging percentage over the last seven days. Duran has one homer in six career at-bats against Scherzer, while Abreu is 1-for-2 in his career against the future Hall of Famer.
As always, look for the most favourable MLB odds at the best MLB betting sites before locking in any wagers on our Blue Jays vs. Red Sox predictions.
Greg’s Blue Jays predictions are 20-11-2 for +7.58 units this season.
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox odds
| Blue Jays moneyline odds | +110 |
| Red Sox moneyline odds | -130 |
| Run line odds | Red Sox -1.5 (+155), Blue Jays +1.5 (-185) |
| Game total | Over 9.5 runs (-105), Under 9.5 runs (-115) |
| Date/time | June 17, 6:45 p.m. ET |
Betting the Blue Jays (35-38 SU, 35-38 ATS, 38-34-1 o/u)
The Blue Jays snapped a two-game slide with a dominant 6-1 win in the series opener on Tuesday night, powered by five strong innings from starting pitcher Dylan Cease, who scattered four hits while striking out seven.
Davis Schneider and Andres Gimenez launched back-to-back homers, and George Springer also went deep for the 300th time in his illustrious career to get the job done offensively.
Schneider, who has struggled overall this season and to earn playing time, has awesome career splits at Fenway Park: .375/.474/.688 with three homers and seven RBIs in 12 career games at the venue.
Betting the Red Sox (29-41 SU, 30-39 ATS, 31-36-2 o/u)
This team really does stink this season, especially at Fenway Park, where the team is a miserable 12-23 straight-up. Boston is averaging just 3.51 runs per game with a .243/.313/.377 slash line and .690 OPS at its historic home venue.
Nearly every positional player on the roster is having a subpar season aside from outfielder Ceddanne Rafaela (3 WAR), first baseman Willson Contreras (2.9 WAR), and outfielder Wilyer Abreu (2.7 WAR). Injuries to Roman Anthony, Trevor Story, and Triston Casas have also hampered the team’s ability to consistently score runs.
Probable starting pitchers
Toronto: RHP Max Scherzer (1-4, 10.23 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, 5.73 K/9)
This really feels like an incredibly important start for the struggling veteran hurler. If he can’t put together a decent outing against an anemic Boston lineup on Wednesday, his future in the majors may be in doubt once Toronto gets some pitchers back from the injured list.
Scherzer has allowed a whopping 22 earned runs across his last four starts, including seven home runs. He lasted just 3 1/3 innings last time out against the Phillies, who recorded five runs on five hits to chase him early from the contest.
All of Scherzer’s Statcast metrics rank very poorly this season, as the 41-year-old’s pitch arsenal continues to decline with age. His once electric fastball and slider are no longer elite, with the opposition slugging .600 and .741, respectably, off those pitches.
Boston: LHP Jake Bennett (1-2, 5.28 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 4.70 K/9)
Bennett will be making his fourth career big-league start on Wednesday night, which means he’ll have the element of surprise against Toronto’s lineup.
After an impressive debut on May 1 against the Astros (5 IP, 1 ER, 3 K), the southpaw was roughed up in back-to-back outings against the Rays (10.1 IP, 8 ER, 13 H).
Bennett’s rising fastball averages just 92 mph, and the opposition is batting .400 with a .482 wOBA against his heater, which he throws roughly 30% of the time. The 25-year-old does feature an effective sinker and changeup, though, that he relies on to get ground-ball outs (57.7% GB rate).
Notable injuries
The following players are on the injured list for Toronto:
- P Yimi Garcia (elbow)
- OF Addison Barger (elbow)
- P Shane Bieber (elbow)
- OF Daulton Varsho (wrist)
- P Joe Mantiply (knee)
- IF Lenyn Sosa (wrist)
- P Jose Berrios (elbow)
- OF Anthony Santander (shoulder)
- P Cody Ponce (knee)
- P Bowden Francis (elbow)
The following players are on the injured list for the Red Sox:
- OF Romany Anthony (hand)
- IF Nick Sogard (oblique)
- P Garrett Crochet (lat)
- SS Trevor Story (hernia)
- P Patrick Sandoval (biceps)
- IF Romy Gonzalez (shoulder)
- 1B Triston Casas (abdomen)
- P Tanner Houck (elbow)
- P Johan Oviedo (elbow)
- P Kutter Crawford (elbow)
Weather
It should be another perfect evening for baseball at Fenway Park, with temperatures around 24 C and clear skies. Winds will blow out to left field at 9 mph.
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox betting trends
- The Blue Jays have won three of the previous four meetings with the Red Sox this season. Three of those meetings played under the posted game total.
- The Red Sox are a dreadful 6-15 SU vs. AL East foes and 12-23 SU at Fenway Park this season.
- The Red Sox have hit the team total under in 17 of their last 25 home games.
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox player prop trends
- Scherzer has recorded 10 outs or fewer in four of his last five starts and is -115 to record under 14.5 outs on Wednesday night.
- Jarren Duran has hit safely in six straight games and 17 of his last 20. He’s -220 to get a hit.
- Schneider has homered in back-to-back games for the Blue Jays and is +570 to go deep.
- Bennett has recorded 15 outs or more in all three of his first three MLB starts and is -134 to exceed 14.5 outs against the Blue Jays.
