The Toronto Blue Jays begin an important AL East road series on Tuesday night when they visit Fenway Park for the opener against the struggling Boston Red Sox. With both teams battling injuries and inconsistency entering the matchup, bettors will be searching for value in the latest Blue Jays vs. Red Sox prediction, picks and odds for June 16.
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox prediction
Kazuma Okamoto over 0.5 RBIs: +165 @ Sports Interaction
Okamoto over 0.5 RBIs
Okamoto will get his first taste of the hitter-friendly Fenway Park on Tuesday night, and his powerful pull swing from the right side should be able to take advantage of the short distance to the Green Monster in left field.
The Blue Jays third baseman leads the team with 42 RBIs through 70 games, and he’s successfully driven in at least one run in four straight contests and six of his last eight. He’s driven in at least one run in 42% of his games this season, which means we’re getting good value at +165 (37.7% implied odds).
Okamoto, a right-handed hitter, has also hit southpaws much better than righties this season, slashing .258/.333/.484 with an .817 OPS. He’s managed to produce 11 RBIs in just 62 at-bats against lefties this season.
Okamoto’s average exit velocity (92.1 mph), barrel rate (14.6%), and hard-hit rate (50%) all rank in the 89th percentile in the majors or higher.
As always, shop around for the most favourable MLB odds at the best MLB betting sites before locking in any wagers on our Blue Jays vs. Red Sox prediction.
Greg’s Blue Jays bets are 20-10-2 for +8.58 units this season.
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox odds
| Blue Jays moneyline odds | -120 |
| Red Sox moneyline odds | +100 |
| Run line odds | Blue Jays -1.5 (+145), Red Sox +1.5 (-170) |
| Game total | Over 7.5 runs (-115), under 7.5 (-105) |
| Date/time | June 16, 6:45 p.m. ET |
Betting the Blue Jays (34-38 SU, 34-38 ATS, 38-33-1 o/u)
The Blue Jays just can’t stay healthy. Just when they started to get some healthy bodies back into the lineup, Daulton Varsho, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Andres Gimenez were the latest victims to succumb to the injury bug.
Bettors will want to pay close attention to manager John Schneider’s lineup card before locking in any wagers on Tuesday to see if Guerrero Jr., and Gimenez are included, as they’re both listed as day-to-day. Varsho is on the IL and won’t be suiting up for Toronto.
Toronto has dropped back-to-back series to the Phillies and Yankees, so three games with the lowly Red Sox presents an excellent opportunity for the squad to begin trending back towards .500 before a tough weekend series at Wrigley Field against the Cubs.
Betting the Red Sox (29-40 SU, 30-38 ATS, 31-35-2 o/u)
The Red Sox open this series 11 games below .500 and well out of contention in the American League, leading many to believe they’ll be sellers at the trade deadline barring a massive winning streak at some point over the next few weeks.
Boston has dropped five of its last seven games overall, but its embarrassing 12-22 SU record at Fenway Park is downright mystifying. The team simply can’t hit at its home ballpark, averaging just 3.59 runs per game at Fenway, which ranks as the third worst run average in the majors behind Texas and San Diego.
Like the Blue Jays, this team has been hammered with injuries all season long, most notably to blossoming star Roman Anthony, staff ace Garrett Crochet, and veteran shortstop Trevor Story.
Probable starting pitchers
Toronto: RHP Dylan Cease (3-3, 2.91 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 13.63 K/9)
Cease is in a good position to have success on Tuesday against a weak Boston lineup that is ravaged by injuries.
The fireballer ranks third in the majors in strikeouts with 103, and his elite 36.8% strikeout rate puts him in the 99th percentile among qualified pitchers.
Cease, who is coming off six innings of one-run ball against the Phillies with 11 strikeouts, allowed four runs on seven hits over 5 2/3 innings to the Blue Jays back on April 27.
Boston: LHP Payton Tolle (3-3, 2.70 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 9.11 K/9)
Tolle is coming off his worst start of the season against the Rays, who piled up four runs on nine hits over six innings against the southpaw.
However, Tolle’s Statcast metrics have been impressive this season, as he boasts an elite 2.50 xERA (95th percentile) and a 35.3% chase rate (89th percentile). Standing at 6-foot-6, Tolle also ranks in the 98th percentile in extension, so the ball will quickly be on the hitters on Tuesday night.
Tolle made his second appearance of the season against the Blue Jays back on April 28, allowing three earned runs on three hits while striking out four. He also walked four Toronto batters in that outing.
Notable injuries
The following players are on the injured list for Toronto:
- P Yimi Garcia (elbow)
- OF Addison Barger (elbow)
- P Shane Bieber (elbow)
- OF Daulton Varsho (wrist)
- P Joe Mantiply (knee)
- IF Lenyn Sosa (wrist)
- P Jose Berrios (elbow)
- OF Anthony Santander (shoulder)
- P Cody Ponce (knee)
- P Bowden Francis (elbow)
SS Andres Gimenez (wrist) and 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (back) are considered game-time decisions.
The following players are on the injured list for the Red Sox:
- OF Romany Anthony (hand)
- IF Nick Sogard (oblique)
- P Garrett Crochet (lat)
- SS Trevor Story (hernia)
- P Patrick Sandoval (biceps)
- IF Romy Gonzalez (shoulder)
- 1B Triston Casas (abdomen)
- P Tanner Houck (elbow)
- P Johan Oviedo (elbow)
- P Kutter Crawford (elbow)
Weather
It should be a perfect evening for baseball at Fenway Park, with temperatures around 24 C expected under clear skies. Winds will blow out to right field at just 4 mph.
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox betting trends
- The Blue Jays took two of three from the Red Sox at Rogers Centre from April 27-29. Two of those three games played under the posted total.
- The over is 8-3 in Toronto’s last 11 games.
- The over is 4-0 in Boston’s last four games.
- The Red Sox are a dreadful 6-14 SU vs. AL East foes and 12-22 SU at Fenway Park this season.
- The Red Sox have hit the team total under in 16 of their last 24 home games.
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox player prop trends
- Cease has recorded eight or more strikeouts in each of his last five starts, exceeding nine or more in four of those outings. He’s -125 to strike out over 7.5 batters on Tuesday.
- Jarren Duran has hit safely in five straight games and 16 of his last 20. He’s -160 to extend that streak.
- Kazuma Okamoto has recorded over 1.5 total bases in three straight games and seven of his last 10. He’s +130 to exceed that mark again.
- Okamoto has also driven in a run in four straight games and six of his last 10. He’s +165 to record at least one RBI.
