Best Long Shot Bets To Win The 2026 World Cup

The expansion of the 2026 World Cup could be trouble for established betting favourites, such as Spain, France, England, Argentina and Brazil. They’re perennial contenders to win every major tournament, but the new format could result in some surprises this summer from World Cup long shot bets.

There’s minimal risk in picking either one of the favourites to repeat as World Cup champion. The real value is in picking a long shot with enough potential to cause chaos and disrupt the natural order. Beyond just busting brackets, there are several long shots with a legitimate chance of making memorable runs at the 2026 World Cup.

Related: World Cup Team Rankings

Nobody’s suggesting to throw away money on Haiti or another bottom-dweller to win the competition. But there could be added value to other mid-tier long shots during a 48-team tournament with a grueling path to the World Cup final.

Fatigue during the North American summer heat was always going to be a factor. But, with the expansion of the World Cup from 32 to 48 teams, it’s possible there’ll be a rise in upsets given that there’s an extra round (the Round of 32), as well as the usual unpredictable drama that emerges every four years.

Here’s a break down of the best World Cup long shot bets:

All odds are courtesy of Bet99.

Norway +2500

The chances of a team coming out of nowhere to win the 2026 World Cup are low.  It’s been nearly 30 years since a team won the World Cup for the first time, with France being the last to do so in 1998.  But Les Bleus had a strong team from top to bottom that year. 

The same can’t be said for Norway, as there are uncertainties in defence that could derail the country’s World Cup campaign. However, Norway is in the elite tier of long shots, a clear indication that bookmakers expect Erling Haaland and Martin Odegaard to carry the team deep into the tournament. However, at +2500, there’s a lack of value in picking Norway to win the World Cup for the first time. Especially when compared to other long shots that don’t have the same star power, but are more structurally sound than Norway.

Colombia +3500

Highly-organized Colombia proved during a rigorous CONMEBOL qualifying campaign that it can compete with the world’s elite on any given day. With one of the most explosive attacks at the World Cup, led by Luiz Diaz, Colombia is going to be one of the teams that nations will hope to avoid in the knockout rounds.

The squad is balanced in that the defence rarely concedes cheap goals, while its relentless counter has proved difficult for opponents to contain. It also helps that Colombia is expected to attract a following so big that matches could feel like home games for the South American side.

Japan +5000

Japan has developed a reputation as a World Cup giant killer, defying the odds to beat superior teams at the last two tournaments, such as Colombia (2018), Spain and Germany (2022). It was Japan’s performances four years ago that best demonstrated the country’s blueprint for success against tournament favourites. 

The Samurai Blue were happy to lose the possession battle and let their composed defence absorb pressure. Once the opposition’s defensive line became overextended or a turnover occurred, Japan executed lightning-fast transitions that often caught opponents off guard.

Japan might lack star power, but the country has a cohesiveness that could propel it to new heights.

Morocco +5000

The odds for Morocco to win the 2026 World Cup are drastically different compared to 2022 in Qatar. Odds ranged from +20000 to +25000 before a Cinderella run to the semifinals captured the soccer world’s imagination. But it wasn’t luck that got Morocco to the penultimate round of the competition.

A suffocating defensive approach was instrumental in helping Morocco pull off upsets against Spain and Portugal in the knockout rounds before falling to France in the semis. It was a squad built for modern tournament success. But now the Atlas Lions have an attack that’s improved so much that +5000 odds will be tempting for bettors looking for value outside of the traditional favourites.

Uruguay +6000

The new generation has given Uruguay fans reason to dream big heading into the 2026 World Cup. With Fede Valverde leading the way, Uruguay proved to be one of the toughest teams to break down during South American qualifying. Darwin Nunez is erratic in attack, but his willingness to test goalkeepers should create opportunities for late-arriving midfielders like Valverde. Considering that the odds are high for a talented side like Uruguay, savvy bettors should take advantage as long as Marcelo Bielsa’s team is flying under the radar.

United States +6000

The U.S. men’s national team comes into the World Cup with the swagger of a side confident in its ability to pull off the unexpected on home soil. History will be on the team’s side, as World Cup hosts have historically overachieved. While there’s always the possibility of falling flat like Qatar in 2022, there’s a growing confidence that this version of the team is built to reach heights not seen since the country reached the semifinals in 2002. With a majority of stars plying their trade in Europe, this is arguably the most talented team in the country’s history. With strong support expected at each of the games on home soil, this is the golden generation’s best shot at winning soccer’s most revered prize.

Ecuador +7500

Ecuador is poised to be among the leading defensive teams in North America. Led by deep-lying midfielder Moises Caicedo, Ecuador developed into a defensive fortress during CONMEBOL qualifiers, conceding just five goals in 16 games. The country has perfected a system in which opponents are punished after being dared to attack. Ecuador has the defensive spine needed to produce a deep run, but experience could be an issue late in the knockout rounds.

Mexico +8000

Mexico is going to have the most passionate home-field advantage.The electric atmosphere alone should be enough to lift El Tri out of the group stage. Winning Group A with South Africa, South Korea and Czechia is going to be crucial, as Mexico will likely have a favourable matchup in the Round of 32 and possibly bypass tournament favourites in the Round of 16. The odds and home-field advantage is bound to attract plenty of bets.

Senegal +10000

Senegal is loaded with a wealth of experience and talent that will make The Lions of Teranga one of the favourites to be the first African nation to win the World Cup. The country was stripped of the Africa Cup of Nations title retroactively in January, but Senegal is arguably the most talented African team set to compete at the World Cup. Despite having an elite veteran core, including Sadio Mane and Kalidou Koulibaly, the +10000 odds suggest that Senegal’s recent inconsistencies have been factored into the price.

Canada +15000

Canada has the talent to pull off an upset or two, but winning the World Cup is obviously a stretch. However, there has been at least one instance when a host nation has come out of nowhere to pull off the impossible. In 2004, Greece had similar long shot odds of winning the European Championship on home soil before a memorable run to the final ended with a famous victory over Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal. They were different times back then, but if Canada tops a manageable group with Bosnia and Herzegovina, Switzerland and Qatar then the country could start to build momentum in the knockout rounds in an effort to achieve an upset even bigger than Greece’s 22 years ago.