The stage is set for the 2026 World Cup qualifying playoffs, with Italy vs. Northern Ireland getting the action started March 26 at New Balance Arena in Bergamo. We’re backing Italy to emerge victorious and move on to the Path A final, where they’ll play for a spot at the 2026 World Cup in the United States of America, Canada and Mexico. Canadian soccer fans will be especially invested in our predictions and betting odds, as the winner of Path A will take on Canada in the World Cup co-host nation’s opening game in Toronto.
● Italy Moneyline (-350) at bet365
● Italy Clean Sheet (-150) at bet365
Key Match Info for Italy vs. Northern Ireland (March 26th, 2026)
● Competition: World Cup qualifying playoff
● Kickoff: 3:45 p.m. EST / 12:45 p.m. PST
● Venue: New Balance Arena, Bergamo, Italy
Italy vs. Northern Ireland Odds & Performance Breakdown
On paper, this game shouldn’t be close. Italy has the weapons to easily dispatch a Northern Ireland side that lacks the elite talent that Azzurri boss Gennaro Gattuso has at his disposal. After all, Italy has won the World Cup four times. But, based on Italy’s last two qualifying campaigns, we could be in for a surprise if the home side endures another meltdown.
Despite winning the European Championship in 2021, Italy hasn’t qualified for the World Cup since 2014. A combination of outdated tactics and poor attacking efficiency resulted in Italy missing the 2018 and 2022 World Cups. But we’re expecting Italy at -350 odds to exorcise those demons, coming out on top with a win to extend Northern Ireland’s 40-year wait to qualify for the World Cup.
Italy Breakdown
Only two decades have passed since Italy last won the World Cup. But few could have predicted at the time that the men’s national team would be in danger of missing its third consecutive World Cup 20 years on. A team that was once a perennial contender to win the World Cup has regressed to a point in which qualifying is no longer a guarantee. Although Italy showed flashes of greatness in qualifying after coach Gennaro Gattuso took charge, a pair of defeats to Group I winner Norway – by a combined score of 7-1 – relegated the team to a playoff position rather than automatic qualification.
● Predicted Lineup: Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Mancini, Calafiori, Dimarco; Barella, Locatelli, Tonali; Politano, Retegui, Raspadori
● Injuries: Chiesa, Scamacca, Bastoni
● Suspensions: NA
Federico Chiesa looked set to end his two-year absence from the national team after getting called up, but the Liverpool forward’s wait will continue after he was forced to withdraw from the team due to an injury.
Northern Ireland Breakdown
An away fixture in Italy won’t fill Northern Ireland with confidence, especially after a qualifying campaign in which Northern Ireland finished third behind group winner Germany and Slovakia, However, hopes of qualifying for the World Cup were kept alive after a strong showing in the Nations League in 2025.
Now a pair of away fixtures is all that sits between them and a chance to qualify for the World Cup for the first time since 1986. However, Northern Ireland are up against the odds, with bookies giving them a slim chance to get past Italy at +1000 odds of winning on the road.
● Predicted Lineup: Peacock-Farrell; Hume, McNair, Toal, Spencer; Smyth, McCann, Charles, Saville, Price; Charles
● Injuries: Ballard, Bradley, Lewis
● Suspensions: NA
The odds were already stacked against Northern Ireland, but injuries on defence could be the country’s Achilles’ heel, as stars such as Conor Bradley and Dan Ballard won’t be available.
Our Pick: Italy to Win (-350)
Betting on Italy to lose a World Cup qualifier has yielded profits in recent years. But we’re backing Thursday’s favourite to buck the trend and emerge from the single-leg semifinal with a convincing victory. It’ll be a game in which Italy’s possession-heavy profile will put the team in a position to win, so long as the attack is able to convert chances into goals.
Although Italy’s missing a pair of attacking threats in Chiesa and Gianluca Scamacca, Mateo Retegui is a reliable target that Northern Ireland defenders will struggle to contain. There’s also some uncertainty at the back, as defender Alessandro Bastoni is a doubt due to injury. But Italy’s midfield will be the key to success. With Sandro Tonali (if healthy), Nicolo Barella and Manuel Locatelli dictating play, expect Northern Ireland to be chasing the ball for a majority of the contest.
Ultimately, Italy’s inspired play will help the country win and move on to face either Wales or Bosnia-Herzegovina in the Path A final.
Italy to win outright
Italy vs. Northern Ireland Betting Trends
● Italy’s Home Dominance: Three of Italy’s four qualifying clean sheets came at home.
● Long wait for NI: Northern Ireland has beaten Italy once (1958) in 11 meetings.
● Recent History: Italy has kept a clean sheet in all six home games vs. Northern Ireland.
Bonus Tip: Italy Clean Sheet (-150)
Despite losing 4-1 at home against Norway in its last qualifying match, we’re not expecting Northern Ireland to have anywhere near the same success against Italy on Thursday. While there are some doubts about the health of Italy’s defence, Gattuso’s squad will still have the defensive prowess to contain Northern Ireland.
Northern Ireland will likely deploy a counter-attacking strategy, but expect Italy to hold firm at the back and keep a clean sheet against the inferior visitors. Trying to score on the counter-attack will be especially hard without Conor Bradley, who is Northern Ireland’s primary outlet for transitions. Without him, it’s going to be difficult to get the ball up the field and provide service to striker Dion Charles.
Given the country’s woes against stronger teams – and the fact that Northern Ireland scored a majority of its seven goals in qualifying in two games against Luxembourg – this looks like a good chance to bet on Italy winning without conceding at home.
Italy clean sheet
The Final Whistle
Recent history suggests that there could be some value in betting on Northern Ireland to keep things interesting in Italy on Thursday. But scoring opportunities will be few and far between against an Italy side that’s made a habit of dominating lower-ranked opponents. Italy has also seen an uptick in scoring since Genaro Gattuso took charge midway through qualifying, netting 18 goals in five qualifying games before getting embarrassed by Norway at home last November. Given the different styles of both teams, expect this clash to be a one-sided affair with few chances for the underdog.