2026 MLB Season Win Total Over/Unders: Projections & Picks For NL East breaks down win total odds for the New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals using FanGraphs and PECOTA projections. We compare online sportsbook odds at the best MLB betting sites to model projections to find value over/under bets, highlight key offseason moves, injuries, and roster risks.
Related: AL East season win total picks, AL Central season win total picks, AL West season win total picks
New York Mets (over/under 90.5 wins)
FanGraphs projection: 89.7 wins
PECOTA Projection: 89.6 wins
The Mets underwent a major roster overhaul after missing the playoffs with an 83-79 record last season, bringing in a number of high-profile players while also losing a few. Most notably, New York added infielder Bo Bichette, starting pitcher Freddy Peralta, reliever Devin Williams, and second baseman Marcus Semien. But some names also departed, as fan favourite Pete Alonso, elite reliever Edwin Diaz, and outfielder Brandon Nimmo have all moved on from the club.
So the big question is: Are the Mets a better team than a year ago? And it’s not an easy question to answer.
Stud shortstop Francisco Lindor underwent surgery on his left hand roughly a month ago, putting his status for Opening Day in jeopardy. And the Mets are asking the newly acquired Bichette to shift to third base away from his usual middle infield position. It’s been a tough transition for the former Toronto Blue Jay this spring, as evidenced by several viral videos of his defensive mishaps at the new position.
Pick: Under 90.5 wins (-110)
The Mets have a good team on paper, and they should compete for a playoff spot, if they can stay healthy. However, with a roster full of injury-prone veterans, the team is banking on good overall player health for the majority of the season. Losing one of the best closers in baseball in Diaz and replacing him with Williams is also concerning, as are the losses of several high-leverage arms over the winter, including Gregory Soto, Ryan Helsley, and Tyler Rogers, among others. It’s a big of a stretch for the Mets to eclipse 90 wins this season, but they should land in the high 80s and still compete for the division crown.
Mets under 90.5 wins
Philadelphia Phillies (over/under 89.5 wins)
FanGraphs projection: 87.9 wins
PECOTA Projection: 85.2 wins
It’s now or never for the Phillies, who have come up short of their World Series aspirations in each of their past four playoff runs.
Management has largely brought back the same core group for one last kick at the proverbial can, inking slugger Kyle Schwarber and catcher J.T. Realmuto to contract extensions over the winter. However, Ranger Suarez elected free agency and joined the Boston Red Sox, which undoubtedly hurts the starting rotation, but there’s still enough pitching talent to contend for another World Series, especially once Zach Wheeler fully recovers from his September shoulder surgery.
Pick: Under 89.5 wins (-115)
We’ll side with the projection systems in this case and take the Phillies to come up just shy of 89 wins. The ship may have already sailed for this edition of the Phillies, and there’s more that could go wrong than right for them this season.
Atlanta Braves (over/under 87.5 wins)
FanGraphs projection: 89.3 wins
PECOTA Projection: 89.4 wins
After making the playoffs in seven consecutive seasons, the Braves posted a miserable 76-86 record in 2025 after the team was hit hard with injuries. However, with several players on the mend and a stable core of veteran players, Atlanta is strong contender to bounce back in 2026.
The front office signed stud reliever Robert Suarez to a three-year pact to act as the team’s setup man this year while also inking outfielder Mike Yastrzemski to a two-year pact. Both of those moves should help solidify Atlanta as a playoff contender in the NL.
Outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. is without a doubt one of the top players in all of baseball when healthy, and judging by his performance in this year’s World Baseball Classic, he’s already in midseason form. A healthy and productive season from one of the best five-tool players in the game can go a long way in Atlanta chasing 90 wins.
Pick: Over 87.5 wins (-110)
Oddsmakers appear to be sleeping on the Braves a bit after a lacklustre 2025 campaign. Remember, this core of veteran players lifted them to 89 wins in 2024 and 104 wins in 2023. The ceiling is high for this Atlanta team and it’s worth the gamble on roughly 90 wins. It’s also a small comfort that both of our projection systems believe the Braves are also being slightly underrated.
Braves over 87.5 wins
Miami Marlins (over/under 72.5 wins)
FanGraphs projection: 75 wins
PECOTA Projection: 74.8 wins
Few teams are more frustrating than the constantly rebuilding Marlins, who traded away one of their young and talented starting pitchers, Edward Cabrera, to the Chicago Cubs over the winter. However, Miami did receive the Cubs’ No. 1 prospect, Canadian outfielder Owen Caissie, in return.
Though it will be fun to watch Caissie, who had an excellent showing in the World Baseball Classic for Canada this month, develop into a big leaguer, it’s never easy to get a lock on the Marlins, who always seem to be on the verge of blowing up their roster in order to keep payroll low with cheap top prospects.
Pick: Pass
The Marlins are one of the most unpredictable franchises when it comes to performance in MLB. Take a pass on this season win total and put your money elsewhere.
Washington Nationals (over/under 65.5 wins)
FanGraphs projection: 68.1 wins
PECOTA Projection: 66.7 wins
Fresh off a 66-win season, the Nationals said goodbye to some pretty good players over the winter, trading away starting pitcher MacKenzie Gore to the Rangers, reliever Jose Ferrer to the Mariners, and first baseman Josh Bell to the Twins.
There’s no doubt it’s going to be a rough year for the Nationals, who have some major holes to fill in the starting rotation and in the bullpen. However, they do still boast stud outfielder James Wood and electric shortstop CJ Abrams, which should help keep the team relatively competitive offensively while top prospects Travis Sykora and Jarlin Susana develop.
There’s no pressure in Washington this season, as the expectations are set very low at 65.5 wins.
Pick: Over 65.5 wins (+100)
There’s some interesting young talent on this team, and they’ll collectively get a chance to develop under a revitazlied front office. There are going to be growing pains, but the group will be able to play loose throughout the season and likely exceed the low expectations, just as our two featured projection models suggest.