With five skaters from Sunday’s Olympic Gold Gedal Game out of the lineup, the Vegas Golden Knights managed to best the Los Angeles Kings 6-4 on Wednesday evening. All five of those skaters participated in Friday’s morning skate and appear likely to suit up in this exciting matchup, an important note for our Golden Knights vs. Capitals SGP.
Washington Capitals head coach Spencer Carbery noted coming out of the break that his team’s goal is to win 16 of their remaining 23 games, believing that would be enough to sneak into the playoffs out of a very deep Eastern Conference. They bested the Philadelphia Flyers 3-1 in their first game back to make it five wins in six, but still face a very daunting challenge in attempting to earn a playoff spot, having seen nightmarish results on the out-of-town scoreboard since the restart.
Our NHL same game parlay prices out at +422 prior to bet365‘s 30% same game parlay boost, which is available to the majority of users for any matchup from Thursday’s slate.
- Tom Wilson/Pierre-Luc Dubois 1+ Point Each (Straight bet odds: Wilson -165, Dubois +100)
- Under 6.5 Goals (-160 straight bet odds)
Nick’s Knights/Capitals SGP
Legs 1 and 2: Tom Wilson/Pierre-Luc Dubois 1+ Points Each (Straight bet odds: Wilson -165, Dubois +100)
Dimitri Filipovic had Spencer Carbery on the Hockey PDOCAST this week, and it’s a worthwhile listen that touches on some interesting subjects. Carbery gives Dubois high praise and notes that Dubois’ absence has been a key reason the team has underperformed relative to last year.
Dubois put up 66 points in 82 games last season, while dominating defensively in tough usage versus opposing top units. Dubois played 395.8 minutes alongside Connor McMichael and Tom Wilson last season, and the trio outscored opponents 27-23 despite spending most of their minutes playing against opposing top units. They also generated 3.44 xGF/60.
Based on Friday’s morning skate, Wilson is set to return to the lineup after missing Wednesday’s game, and Carbery will roll with the McMichael, Dubois, Wilson combination in Friday’s matchup.
Dubois returned to the lineup after a 47-game absence in the Capitals’ final game before the break, recording a goal and an assist across 17:35 of ice time. The layoff likely came at a good time for Dubois to get fully up to speed, as he spent the break skating with Adam Oates, who’s generally regarded as one of the better skill coaches in the world.
I was high on the potential that Dubois could be an undervalued player in the player prop market coming out of the break as a result. While he did not register a point in Wednesday’s matchup versus the Flyers, the trio of Dubois, McMichael, and Ryan Leonard was Carbery’s most commonly used line at even strength and generated 0.84 expected goals while allowing only 0.19.
The Capitals’ top unit becomes a little more formidable with Wilson sliding back into the mix, and we will likely see Carbery lean heavily upon that line in Friday’s matchup.
At +100, I believe there is solid value in backing Dubois, in particular, to record a point, but there is also strong correlation in Wilson and Dubois each recording a point, which is why these legs have been outlined together.
Leg 3: Under 6.5 Goals (-160 straight bet odds)
There is obviously negative correlation in backing the under in a game where we need two skaters to record a point. That point is not lost on me, but it moves the price significantly enough in the right direction for me to believe it’s a good option.
So while it hurts that we would lose our parlay if this game becomes a shootout, I actually don’t think it’s that unlikely that we can cash the Wilson and Dubois legs in a game that finishes something like 3-2 or 4-2.
The Capitals’ offensive upside is currently lacking. The defensive core can move the puck effectively and there are some solid pieces up front, but they do not hold any overly dynamic offensive skaters. They have scored only 3.18 goals per game this season, and while Dubois should help in that regard, I don’t think it’s overly likely they hang up a crooked number in this spot.
What does seem likely is that the Capitals will continue to clean it up defensively in pursuit of a playoff spot. During their 5-1-0 run they have allowed only 24.23 shots against per 60 and rank 10th in xGA/60. Logan Thompson has been tremendous this season with a .913 save percentage and +20.1 GSAx rating across 40 appearances, and will start in this game.
Based on their improved defensive play of late and Thompson’s dominance in goal, Washington should be capable of keeping the Knights to a reasonably low offensive output. While I think Washington’s top trio has a decent chance to contribute some offence, I think they will finish with a low enough total on average for me to believe there is value in adding this leg because of how greatly it moves the price.
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