The Winnipeg Jets will be desperate to snap an eight-game losing skid Saturday night in a high-profile Hockey Night in Canada showdown versus the Ottawa Senators.
Following their eight-game losing skid, the Jets now rank dead last in the NHL, yet are also still just seven points back in a soft race for the Western Conference’s final wildcard spot.
The Senators, meanwhile, are in the midst of a dogfight for an Eastern Conference Wild Card spot and enter Saturday’s showdown three points back of the Buffalo Sabres for the final spot, despite having played to a strong record of 6-3-1 over their last ten games.
Considering the Jets’ recent form, the Senators will likely be the popular bet in this matchup, but the correlation of our three-leg parlay involving the Jets winning a fairly low-scoring game looks strong given the +600 price tag. We will be hoping for a productive evening from Winnipeg’s dynamic duo of Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor, as well as a sharp performance in goal from arguably the game’s best netminder in Connor Hellebuyck to give us a shot at cashing in at +600.
- Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor 1+ Point Each
- Under 6.5 Total Goals
- Winnipeg Jets Moneyline
Leg 1—Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor 1+ Point Each
The Jets’ lack of depth scoring has been a significant concern all year long, and as a result, they have scored only 2.87 goals per game this season. It seems unlikely that will change anytime soon, as regardless of what depth combinations head coach Scott Arniel creates, it simply seems that the talent is not on the roster.
In order for the Jets to find success in any matchup right now, it will almost always mean a somewhat productive night from the top line of Scheifele, Connor and Gabriel Vilardi. The trio has combined for 99 points in 39 games this season and generated 4.13 goals per 60 across a hefty sample of 479.5 minutes of play.
Fresh off being snubbed from Team Canada’s Olympic roster, Scheifele recorded two goals and an assist in the Jets’ most recent matchup versus the Toronto Maple Leafs, while Connor recorded an assist. The two have each been held scoreless in only eight games this season and feature excellent correlation in skating on the top line and top power play units together.
As the Jets will desperately seek to end their lengthy losing skid in this matchup, Arniel will likely lean heavily upon his elite top line to help negate the team’s concerns further down the lineup, and as a result I like the chances that if the Jets find a way to get it done Saturday evening Scheifele and Connor find their way onto the score sheet.
Leg 2—Under 6.5 Total Goals
Eric Comrie was not overly sharp in the Jets’ 6-5 loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs on New Year’s Day, but we could see a different type of game Saturday with the players back in their regular routines and Hart Trophy netminder Connor Hellebuyck back in the pipes.
Hellebuyck has been rock-solid this year, playing to a +15.7 GSAx rating, 2.51 GAA and .907 save percentage across 22 appearances. The Jets have allowed 3.26 xGA/60 over the last ten games, which ranks 13th in the NHL, and I’d prefer to bet on them locking things down defensively in a spot where they should have plenty of urgency, as opposed to a lights-out offensive performance.
The Senators, meanwhile, have allowed only 2.97 xGA/60 this season, which is the second-best mark in the NHL. It is contradictory to our legs on Scheifele and Connor each recording a point, but they are a high-quality defensive team and likely won’t allow a thin Jets attack to record too significant of an offensive output on the road in this matchup.
This leg does move the price up significantly, which I like given the fact that the Jets do not seem to succeed overly in overly high-scoring games right now.
Leg 3-Winnipeg Jets Moneyline
This is obviously the scariest leg given the Jets’ recent form, but this looks like a good spot to try and buy low on a Jets team that won the Presidents’ Trophy just one season ago given my belief that backing them to win correlates well with the rest of our parlay.
While I’ve been really hard on the Jets all year and called heavily upon their likely regression in most of my work, it is a close league, and they still appear to be closer to the pack than the results suggest. It’s not as though the Jets have been getting blown out during their losing skid; they have taken three games to overtime, including a 3-2 loss in the last matchup with Ottawa, and excluding one empty net goal, have not lost by two or more.
In those matchups they have played to a 49.23% expected goal share during their losing skid, a mark that is certainly not overly impressive, but certainly suggests they can easily hang around in Saturday’s matchup with the games best netminder in goal.