In this article, I’ll break down my two best bets from Saturday’s hefty 13-game NHL slate based on Friday’s opening prices at online sportsbooks. Six of the seven Canadian NHL teams will be in action Saturday, and we will also touch on game notes from those matchups.
Please keep in mind this guide was written Friday afternoon, which means there could be some relevant changes leading up to these matchups we touch on. While the odd time betting early can mean locking in a wager that loses value due to surprising lineup news, those surprises can go both ways, and in general betting strong prices early will always be a good strategy, which is what we will attempt to do in this piece.
NHL Best bets for December 13
Ottawa Senators vs Minnesota Wild – Senators moneyline: +100
Senators moneyline
This one might not be for the faint of heart, as getting a price of just +100 to fade a Wild side sporting a record of 17-9-5 certainly will not be overly appealing to the masses. This looks like a sneaky-good spot to fade an overachieving Wild side. However, it wouldn’t be remotely surprising to see the Senators control play quite heavily despite the opposing records of these sides.
As we have touched on earlier in the week, the Eastern Conference is drastically deeper than the Western Conference this season. Eastern Conference teams are 59-42-7 versus the Western Conference this season, and with only four or five truly formidable sides out West, teams like Minnesota are already a near-lock to make the playoffs as a result, while teams like Ottawa are in an all out dogfight for playoff spots.
On top of the fact that the Senators would likely be viewed more on par with the Wild if they played out West, the Wild also look to be a likely regression candidate, as their recent recipe for success has not looked overly sustainable.
Goaltending is a gigantic part of team success, and the Wild certainly don’t need to apologize for rostering two goaltenders in excellent form. Still, over the last 15 games, the Wild hold an expected goal share of just 50.22% and have generated just 2.58 xGF/60.
It’s not overly surprising that the numbers suggest Minnesota’s offensive play hasn’t been overly strong of late, as the bottom six has not looked threatening, while the team’s strong second unit is still only effective because of their strong defensive upside.
Minnesota will also likely be without Jonas Brodin, who has been one of the better shutdown defenders in the game this season and is a key reason for the team’s strong defensive results.
The Senators, meanwhile, rank second in the NHL in expected goal share over the last 15 games, and aside from their shaky goaltending, have generally looked to be quite a formidable side.
It’s not fun betting on a side with a notable goaltending disadvantage like the Senators will be facing in this matchup, but that’s a livable concern considering the arguments that they will likely own a surprising edge in terms of chance creation in this matchup.
Florida Panthers vs Dallas Stars – Over 5.5 Goals: -110
Panthers/Stars over 5.5 goals
Hopefully this bet stays within our target price range of 5.5 at -125 as we get closer to puck drop, but it wouldn’t surprise me if we see this total move considerably. For those interested in tailing this one, I’d recommend acting fast, or if you are interested in betting the under, I’d wait until closer to puck drop, as it wouldn’t surprise me if the total moves to 6 with the over still set at -110.
It’s hard for me to see how any Panthers game right now warrants a total of 5.5, and the Stars obviously do have strong offensive upside. It’s not lost on me that head coach Paul Maurice wants the foundation of his team’s play to be their defensive prowess, but they have strayed way too far away from a low-event style of play for too large of a sample for that to be a concern.
The last 15 Panthers games have averaged 7.13 combined goals per game. The underlying numbers suggest that it’s no fluke their games have been quite high scoring, as in that span they rank eighth in xGF/60 and 11th in xGA/60.
There’s been some positive development for the Panthers of late from an offensive perspective, but defensively they still look sneaky bad, and it could be tough for Florida to keep one of the league’s most potent offences in check in this matchup. The top unit led by Sam Reinhart and Anton Lundell has looked quite threatening since Eetu Luostarinen returned to action, while Sam Bennett has regained his offensive touch with 13 points over the last 10 games.
The Stars rank fourth in goals scored per game this season, which is no surprise given the team’s loaded offensive core. Wyatt Johnston and Mikko Rantanen lead a highly productive top unit, while Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz power one of the more formidable second units in the league. Their power play ranks first in success rate, which is far from shocking considering the talent on hand.
Hopefully this price holds up, but an opening total of 5.5 looks quite inaccurate for this matchup, and I don’t see much reason to overthink locking it in while it’s available.
Edmonton Oilers vs Toronto Maple Leafs
| Oilers moneyline odds | -115 |
| Maple Leafs moneyline odds | –105 |
| Game total | Over 6.5 goals (-105), Under 6.5 goals (-115) |
| Time | 7:07 p.m. ET |
All odds courtesy of bet365.
- This highly exciting Hockey Night in Canada showdown comes at an interesting time, as the Oilers finally opted to move on from Stuart Skinner Friday, bringing in Tristan Jarry from the Pittsburgh Penguins. Jarry will likely make his debut with the Penguins in this matchup.
- Jarry has outperformed Skinner this season, but most numbers would actually state that Skinner has been the better goaltender over the last three years. Therefore, it’s a little difficult to accurately project how much of an upgrade Jarry will ultimately provide for the Oilers.
- Jarry holds a +9.8 GSAx rating and a .909 save percentage in 14 appearances this season.
- Edmonton also acquired defender Spencer Stastney from the Nashville Predators Friday, with the plan being that he will replace Brett Kulak’s vacated spot on the blue line after Kulak was used to help acquire Jarry.
- Stastney features a strong underlying profile, and it is worth noting that Predators GM Barry Trotz has let two defenders (Dante Fabbro and Alexandre Carrier) with strong underlying numbers go since the start of last season, and both defenders have been useful for their new teams, and it’s probably not a bad bet from the Oilers to believe Stastney can handle a role on the third pairing.
- The Maple Leafs will be looking to respond from a 3-2 overtime loss versus the San Jose Sharks Thursday evening. They are 9-5-4 at home this season and 5-2-3 over the last 10 games.
- Oliver Ekman-Larsson suffered a lower-body injury in Thursday’s matchup, but he appears to have avoided anything significant, as it is reportedly possible that he will play in this matchup. Ekman-Larsson has been arguably the only Leafs blue-liner to outperform expectations this season.
- Though he still doesn’t look like his former self, Auston Matthews has recorded a goal in four of his last six games played.
Montreal Canadiens vs New York Rangers
| Canadiens moneyline odds | +120 |
| Rangers moneyline odds | –140 |
| Game total | Over 5.5 goals (-135), Under 5.5 goals (+115) |
| Time | 7:07 p.m. ET |
All odds courtesy of bet365.
- The Rangers played well in their two most recent home games versus the Colorado Avalanche and Vegas Golden Knights, but ultimately lost both matchups 3-2 in overtime. They are 3-8-3 at home this season.
- The Canadiens have been excellent on the road and are now 9-3-2 as the visitors following Thursday’s 4-2 win over the Penguins.
- Jacob Fowler stopped 36 of 38 shots faced in his NHL debut on Thursday. Fowler has played to a .919 save percentage in .919 AHL appearances this season. At the time of writing, it has not yet been confirmed whether the Canadiens will go back to Fowler in this matchup or not.
- Adam Fox will remain sidelined for the Rangers and is a significant loss, as at a bare minimum he had been one of the top 15 defenders in the NHL this season.
- Based on Friday’s practice, Alexis Lafreniere has been promoted to the Rangers’ top power-play unit.
Washington Capitals vs Winnipeg Jets
| Capitals moneyline odds | -125 |
| Jets moneyline odds | +105 |
| Game total | Over 6 goals (-115), Under 6 goals (-105) |
| Time | 7:07 p.m. ET |
All odds courtesy of bet365.
- The struggling Jets hit a new low Thursday night, as they fell 6-3 to the Boston Bruins in a matchup on home ice in which I had bet them to win at what now looks to be an awful number of -150. Winnipeg is now just 2-8-1 since Connor Hellebuyck went down with injury and is four points back of the final Wild Card spot.
- The Capitals rank second in the NHL with a goal differential of +27. Logan Thompson has been brilliant in goal, while the team ranks seventh in expected goal share. They are 0-4 in shootouts and lost a critical one on Thursday versus the Carolina Hurricanes, which moved the Hurricanes into first in the Metropolitan Division.
- Regular backup goaltender Charlie Lindgren could be activated from the IR ahead of this matchup, but given that the Capitals are off until Tuesday following this game, I’d expect they ride the Vezina favourite in Thompson.
Calgary Flames vs Los Angeles Kings
| Flames moneyline odds | +155 |
| Kings moneyline odds | –185 |
| Game total | Over 5.5 goals (-110), Under 5.5 goals (-110) |
| Time | 10:07 p.m. ET |
All odds courtesy of bet365.
- The Kings wrapped a two-game road trip with an overtime loss versus the Seattle Kraken Thursday night. They are 4-2-4 over the last 10 games, and in a year where it seemed possible they may take a step back, are just three points back of the Vegas Golden Knights for first in the division.
- The Kings rank 28th in averaging just 2.70 goals per game this season, while the Flames rank 31st with an average of 2.50 goals scored per game.
- While I was quite low on the Flames entering the year and have been hard on them all season, the Kings’ lack of offensive upside could give Calgary a decent chance of hanging around in this matchup.
- Calgary is 6-3-1 over the last 10 games, and holds a 52.37% expected goal share in that span. Its overall process continues to look respectable and the team’s overall compete level continues to look strong, but its lack of high end offensive talent remains a concern.
- Dustin Wolf should be a safe bet to start in goal for the Flames after resting in Wednesday’s matchup versus the Detroit Red Wings.