In this article, I’ll outline the most noteworthy NHL odds, news, and betting insights from Monday’s five-game NHL slate, and I’ll also offer up my best pick of the night.
Pick—Buffalo Sabres Moneyline: -110
Sabres moneyline vs. Flames
We had our eight-game “best bet” winning streak snapped by the Columbus Blue Jackets on Saturday, though readers who had bet with bet365 as was noted in the piece, would have won thanks to the three-goal lead early payout policy offered by the online sportsbook. With a win on the Carolina Hurricanes to cover the puck line later in the evening, we are still at 9-1 in the last 10 if counting the Blue Jackets as a loss.
I’ll note those results because some readers probably won’t want to get there on today’s ugly pick backing a Buffalo Sabres’ side that is 2-8-2 on the road, and are yet to even win one road game in regulation.
Home-and-road splits aren’t the be-all and end-all from a handicapping perspective and can often just be statistical noise to some extent. Generally, these things tend to level off in time; the Los Angeles Kings were historically strong at home last season, and with a highly similar roster, they are 4-6-3 at home this season. The New Jersey Devils started the year 9-0-1 on home ice, but now that they simply aren’t playing as well regardless of venue, they have lost four straight at home to move to 9-4-1.
Aside from the Sabres’ road record, there is a pretty strong case that they are playing better hockey than the Flames right now and still offer a more talented roster, and therefore this is a good opportunity to bet on them in a pick’em while they hold a slight rest advantage.
Since Rasmus Dahlin returned to the lineup, the Sabres are 6-5-0 and hold the fourth-best expected goal share in the NHL. Zach Benson and Josh Norris have also returned to the lineup in that timeframe and are both playing on the top line.
Goaltending has been an issue for the Sabres over those 11 games, as they hold the 10th worst save percentage in the NHL in that span. However it’s been Colten Ellis that has struggled, with an .884 save percentage and 3.53 GAA in that span, while Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has played to a .906 save percentage and 2.22 GAA.
I’d love to have official confirmation, but it seems more likely that after two days of rest, Luukkonen will get this start.
The Calgary Flames have won two straight games over potential Western Conference playoff teams, as they caught an overvalued Minnesota Wild side off guard on Thursday, before Dustin Wolf carried the team to a 2-0 win over a Utah Mammoth side playing the second leg of a back-to-back on Saturday.
Still, the Flames’ lack of offensive skill makes me believe Buffalo deserves to be power-rated as the better team, and that’s not exactly a hot take given that the Sabres do hold a better points percentage and better goal differential than Calgary this season.
The Sabres did a lot of things well in their road matchup versus a desperate Winnipeg Jets on Friday, leading 6 to 2.81 in expected goal share. It seems likely that we will see a similar effort in tonight’s matchup, and at -110, I’m happy with the price we are getting to bet that meaning a better result.
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Toronto Maple Leafs
| Lightning moneyline odds | -120 |
| Maple Leafs moneyline odds | +100 |
| Game total | Over 6 goals (-120), Under 6 (+100) |
| Time | 7:37 p.m. ET |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
- As you would expect considering the prices on this game, the Lightning will be without some critical pieces in Andrei Vasilevskiy and Brayden Point. Nikita Kucherov is listed as day-to-day, but was on the ice at Monday’s morning skate.
- The Lightning did get Victor Hedman back in the lineup Saturday, and he skated 16:43 in a 2-0 loss to the New York Islanders.
- I recommended betting on the Leafs to win at -135 in Saturday’s matchup versus the Montreal Canadiens, and though the game ended in a shootout, it was a pretty bad bet considering the price tag. Montreal led 3.52 to 1.87 in expected goal share and looked to be the better team, and the game had me questioning if Toronto’s recent upswing will prove to be a dead cat bounce for a team that has looked pretty flawed this season.
- One positive for the Leafs from Saturday’s matchup was that third-string goaltender Dennis Hildeby was once again razor-sharp. Hildeby holds a +7.7 GSAx rating and .927 save percentage in eight appearances this season.
Los Angeles Kings @ Utah Mammoth
| Kings moneyline odds | +100 |
| Mammoth moneyline odds | –120 |
| Game total | Over 5.5 goals (-105), Under 5.5 (-115) |
| Time | 9:07 p.m. ET |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
- Utah’s first home game since completing a six-game road trip Saturday night in Calgary. The Mammoth played to a record of 2-4-0 on the road trip. They are 7-3-1 on home ice this season, where they have played only 11 times, compared to a total of 19 games on the road.
- Logan Cooley was a late scratch for Saturday’s matchup versus the Flames and is listed as day-to-day with a lower-body injury.
- The Kings are 4-3-3 over their last 10 games and hold a 52.67% expected goal share in that span. They have no skaters on the IR currently. Their home-and-road splits have flipped entirely compared to last year, as suddenly they are 9-2-4 on the road, but have not found success at home.
- While it hasn’t necessarily felt like either of these teams have been all that overpowering this year, they both appear to be fairly safe bets to make the playoffs, as contrary to the Eastern Conference, the West does not have many convincing options looking to push the teams currently holding spots out of the mix.
Detroit Red Wings @ Vancouver Canucks
| Red Wings moneyline odds | -125 |
| Canucks moneyline odds | +105 |
| Game total | Over 6.5 goals (-105), Under 6.5 (-115) |
| Time | 10:07 p.m. ET |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
- Elias Pettersson (F) missed Saturday’s matchup versus the Minnesota Wild and is listed as day-to-day ahead of this matchup. The Canucks have dealt with arguably the worst injury luck in the NHL this season, and those losses have certainly played into their 31st-ranked point percentage and -19 goal differential.
- The Canucks did earn a surprising win in Saturday’s matchup but were outchanced quite heavily by a Wild side that has not been carrying much of the overall play despite their strong results, and Nikita Tolopilo was rightfully named the second star of the game.
- If Pettersson remains sidelined, the Red Wings look pretty tempting at -125. Detroit holds the third-best expected goal share in the NHL over the last 10 games and has some high-end offensive talents that could fare well in this matchup.
- John Gibson started Saturday’s matchup for the Red Wings, which will likely mean Cam Talbot gets the start in this matchup. Talbot has outperformed Gibson with a +0.5 GSAx and .884 save percentage in 16 appearances this season.
Minnesota Wild @ Seattle Kraken
| Wild moneyline odds | -135 |
| Kraken moneyline odds | +115 |
| Game total | Over 5.5 goals (-115), Under 5.5 (-105) |
| Time | 10:07 p.m. ET |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
- Important get-right spot for the Wild, who have lost two straight games in regulation versus the lowly Flames and Canucks following a 12-1-2 tear. By no means do the Wild appear to be a bad team, but their overall process does not look likely to lead to such dominant results moving forward, as they have not generated many high quality scoring chances and have leaned quite heavily into winning games based on incredible goaltending.
- With that said, the Wild have without question defended quite well recently, which coupled with their goaltending, will give them a solid chance to hang around in any matchup.
- The Kraken enter this matchup in the midst of a five-game losing skid, and hold a 43.48% expected goal share over the last 10 games. Of all the surprising overachievers early on this season, they looked to be one of the most illegitimate, and that take has been coming to fruition of late.
You can follow all of Nick’s hockey bets on the Action Network App!