NHL Best Player Prop Bets (November 21)

Join Canada Sports Betting’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL player prop bets available from Friday’s four-game slate.

Best Bet—Rasmus Dahlin Anytime Goalscorer: +425

Since returning from a well-warranted leave of absence to spend time with his fiancee, who received heart transplant surgery, Dahlin has been playing at an exceptional level. His fiancée is reportedly recuperating well, which surely feels like the weight of the world off Dahlin’s shoulders.

It’s obviously hard to play at a high level in the toughest league in the world when your head is not right. Since returning, Dahlin has looked quite dangerous, racking up six assists while averaging over 25 minutes per game, and in those minutes the Sabres have carried the play quite heavily.

Dahlin has netted only one goal in 17 games this season, which is an obvious knock towards this bet. But he’s also clearly playing at a higher level now, and he has still generated a solid output of chances recently, with 21 shots on goal and 47 attempts over his last eight appearances.

Dahlin was drafted first overall because of his offensive upside, which included solid goal production. Over the previous two seasons, he scored 37 goals in 154 games, which illustrates he is a competent scorer when true to form.

The Chicago Blackhawks will be playing the second leg of a back-to-back in this spot, which is a very livable matchup for this bet. The Blackhawks have allowed 3.51 xGA/60 over their last 10 games and likely will give up a fair number of high-quality chances in this matchup. Arvid Soderblom has been a better-than-average backup in a small sample, but considering Chicago’s iffy defensive play and the potential that he regresses, I’m happy with this matchup and feel like it’s the right time to buy on Dahlin in this market.

Best Bet—Nikolaj Ehlers Over 2.5 Shots on Goal: +100

Ehlers will return to Winnipeg for the first time since signing with the Carolina Hurricanes last offseason, after spending the first 10 years of his highly impressive career with the Jets. It took a little time for Ehlers to find his legs with his new side, at least in terms of production, but he’s been in strong form recently, tallying nine points over the last 10 games.

Ehlers has poured 33 shots on goal as well as 64 shot attempts over the last 10 games, going over 2.5 shots on goal in six of those matchups. He’s fared extremely well playing alongside Jackson Blake and Logan Stankoven on the Hurricanes’ second line recently, a unit featuring three strong play-drivers. To no surprise, the trio has taken the play to the opposition, generating 3.72 xGF/60 and 78.30 shot attempts per 60, while outscoring opponents 5-1 where it counts.

Ehlers is also still skating on the Hurricanes’ top power-play unit, where he will surely continue to get a fair share of additional chances on goal.

Hurricanes head coach Rod Brind’Amour spreads the minutes around quite evenly, and Ehlers’ recent uptick in production and shots on goal has not necessarily come due to an increase in ice time. We aren’t banking on it, but any increase in usage from Brind’Amour for Ehlers in this spot would greatly help our bet, and awarding extra minutes to the Hurricanes’ second line right now certainly looks very reasonable.

And whether you want to move the needle based on the possibility that Ehlers has a little extra jump tonight or not, the Jets are a pretty strong target for opposing shooters. Winnipeg has allowed 28.19 shots against per 60 this season, and ranks 28th in expected goal share at even strength.

I actually liked this bet a little more if Connor Hellebuyck was still starting for the Jets due to the increased chances of a game script where the Hurricanes continue to press for offence, but I’m still happy with a price of +100 for Ehlers to record three shots on goal in his return to Winnipeg Friday evening.

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