Our Phillies vs. Blue Jays prediction for Tuesday night will be backing Brandon Valenzuela Over 1.5 Total bases at a long price of +215.
All things considered, the Blue Jays authored a respectable effort in the series opener versus Cristopher Sanchez but went 0-for-10 with runners in scoring position while Patrick Corbin allowed five earned runs. Dylan Cease will return from the IL Tuesday to face off against Zack Wheeler, who has been very sharp following a late start to the season.
After an ugly loss on Cristopher Sanchez to record under 6.5 strikeouts Monday, we hold a record of +2.25 units across Nick’s five MLB betting predictions this season.
Phillies vs Blue Jays Prediction: Brandon Valenzuela Over 1.5 Total Bases +215 (Play to +205)
Valenzuela over 1.5 total bases
Valenzuela will presumably start behind home plate after receiving an off-day Monday, though he was used to pinch-hit in a critical spot versus Sanchez in the seventh inning and did offer another solid at-bat. While Wheeler does not provide an easy matchup to manage extra base-hits, this price seems quite long considering the way that Valenzuela has crushed righties this season and his recent form.
Valenzuela has slugged .483 with an OPS of .823 versus right-handed pitching across 87 ABs this season. Throughout his last 31 AB’s he has hit .290 with a .316 xBA and struck out just 14% of the time while recording a hard-hit rate of 41%. He ranks first in OPS among all Blue Jays batters, and while he will likely once again be further down the lineup card than is deserved Tuesday, a price of +215 to record two or more bases still makes this an appealing bet.
Phillies vs. Blue Jays Odds
| Phillies Moneyline Odds | (-110) |
| Blue Jays Moneyline Odds | (-110) |
| Run Line Odds | Phillies -1.5 (+160), Blue Jays +1.5 (-190) |
| Run Total | Over 7.5 Runs (+100), Under 7.5 Runs (-120) |
| Date/Time | June 9, 7:07 p.m. ET |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Betting Philadelphia Phillies
Wheeler made his first start of the season on May 1st, after being diagnosed with venous thoracic outlet syndrome in his throwing shoulder last year, which put a halt to a potential Cy Young campaign. He’s pitched to an xERA of 3.21 and an xFIP of 3.35 and holds a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 19%.
His Stuff+ rating has dropped off to 106, which correlates with his reduced strikeout rate this season. But to this point, he has stranded base-runners at the highest rate of his career and, as a result, enters this matchup with a career-low ERA of 2.31.
As we discussed yesterday, the Phillies offence has still been surprisingly modest since Don Mattingly took over as manager, despite the fact that the team is 36-30 since he was appointed as manager. Over the last 30 days, the Phillies hold a wRC+ of 88, have struck out 24.8% of the time, which is the highest mark in MLB during that time frame.
They hold a wRC+ of 91 versus right-handed pitching this season and rank 29th in BB/K ratio. They also rank 25th in runs scored per game this season but have been making it work of late thanks to elite pitching and strong results in one-run games.
Betting Toronto Blue Jays
Though the Blue Jays ultimately managed just two runs on Monday, those two earned runs were more than anyone else has managed off Sanchez recently, and the overall offensive process continued to look more sound, though a number of ugly at-bats from George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. did stick out as clear issues.
Toronto holds the second lowest slug-rate in MLB with RISP this season, which is seemingly in part due to legitimately bad play and in part due to some bad luck. It holds the ninth- lowest BABIP in those situations but was in a similar spot last year before catching fire the rest of the way.
It’s still a big stretch to say this offence would be the same as it was last year with better luck in critical situations, but recently we have seen them create more big innings and force pitchers into tough situations much more consistently, and it has started to lead to actual results.
Over the last 14 days, Toronto has hit a wRC+ of 117 and has slugged .450. Toronto’s patchwork starting rotation has been faltering, though, which has largely masked the recent offensive upswing.
Cease’s return to the rotation should help bring a little more stability and alleviate some of the stress that has been placed on an overworked bullpen. Cease has pitched to an ERA of 3.05 this season, and holds an xERA of 3.11 and an xFIP of 2.57.
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