We will take a stab at a long shot for our Phillies vs. Blue Jays prediction Wednesday, backing the Phillies +0.5 runs in the first three innings, parlayed with the Blue Jays to win the game, which prices out at +350 on bet365.
Max Scherzer will make his first start since April 24th on Wednesday after being sidelined with a forearm ailment. Scherzer has pitched to an ERA of 9.64 across a small sample of 18 and 2/3 innings this season, but the majority of the damage was done in two notably horrendous outings.
Scherzer draws a tough matchup Wednesday, as the Phillies will send lefty Jesus Luzardo, who has been in strong form of late following an ugly start to the year, to the mound.
Though Brandon Valenzuela came through with a clutch game-winning single on Tuesday, unfortunately it was not enough to cash our best bet on him to record over 1.5 total bases. We now hold a record of +1.25 units across Nick’s six MLB betting predictions this season.
Phillies vs Blue Jays Prediction: Phillies F3 +0.5/ Blue Jays Moneyline +350 (Play to +340)
Nick’s Phillies vs. Blue Jays parlay
We’ve got a very unique-looking play here on this matchup, but given the price we are getting, it’s a game script that appears to be worth targeting.
Though Scherzer did manage to contribute some important innings during the Blue Jays’ magical playoff run, he still pitched to an ERA of 5.19 across 85 innings in the regular season, and generally did not have the stuff to perform like he used to.
Scherzer’s stuff has been even more concerning this season, and he’s struggled to an xERA of 6.83 with an xFIP of 6.26 this season, while holding the worst Stuff+ rating of his career.
The Blue Jays’ high-quality bullpen is in fairly good shape entering this matchup, as Louis Varland is the only notable arm to throw over 30 pitches over the last three days. While some late blow-ups continue to make the bullpen feel a little less dominant than it actually has been, the unit ranks second in xFIP and seventh in strikeout-minus-walk rate.
While the majority of starters get worse each time through the order, Luzardo’s splits have been extreme. When working through the order for the first time, Luzardo holds an ERA of 1.23, while allowing a slugging rate of .264, and a FIP of 1.33. Working through the order for a second time, Luzardo holds an ERA of 5.47 and a FIP of 4.55, and a third time through he’s struggled to an ERA of 8.83 and a FIP of 5.18 with a greatly reduced strikeout rate.
The Blue Jays offence has followed a solid process in the series, aside from some abhorrent results with runners in scoring position. They have been much more productive of late, and could be poised for a more productive outing in this matchup if they can manage a few more timely hits.
You could take this angle a little further and target the Phillies to win the first three innings and lose the game at +875, or bet the Phillies +0.5 in the first five innings and then to lose the game at +575. All options look solid to me, as the Blue Jays will be at a notable pitching disadvantage early but could be able to claw their way into the matchup later on.
Phillies vs. Blue Jays Odds
| Phillies Moneyline Odds | (-135) |
| Blue Jays Moneyline Odds | (+115) |
| Run Line Odds | Phillies -1.5 (+120), Blue Jays +1.5 (-140) |
| Run Total | Over 8.5 Runs (-110), Under 8.5 Runs (-110) |
| Date/Time | June 10, 7:07 p.m. ET |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Betting Philadelphia Phillies
Though it’s the type of game they have been winning quite often of late, the Phillies would have been quite fortunate to win Tuesday’s matchup. Cease was absolutely dominant, racking up 25 whiffs and 11 strikeouts, while the Phillies recorded just five hits with an xBA of .160.
They made the absolute most out of their offensive opportunities Tuesday, but still lost on a day where the Blue Jays once again failed to pay off a number of threatening innings. Over the last 30 days, the Phillies hold a wRC+ of 83 and have hit just .212. They have struck out at the highest league in MLB in that span, but have been effective enough with runners in scoring position to get by given how well the staff has pitched.
Throughout his last eight starts, Luzardo has pitched to an ERA of 3.15, with an xFIP of 3.36 and an xERA of 3.11. He holds a Stuff+ rating of 108, and a Pitching+ rating of 111.
Betting Toronto Blue Jays
Over the last 18 games, the Blue Jays have played to a record of 10-8 and averaged 4.16 runs scored per game. They hold a wRC+ of 113 in that span and an OPS of .762. It feels as though the continued struggles of George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., coupled with the modest team success, are preventing the recent offensive turnaround from garnering much credit.
It might not be realistic for some of the batters who have powered this run to continue carrying the load. However, chances are at some point Springer and Guerrero will sort things out to some extent, while Alejandro Kirk and Addison Barger could return in strong form.
Perhaps we’re more optimistic regarding the offence than some, but the process has looked better of late, and this is right around the time the lineup clicked into gear last season when most fans had given up their belief in the team.
Over the last 30 days, the depleted starting rotation has pitched to an ERA of 4.52, which has been an obvious concern. Cease’s strong return is obviously a huge step towards better results, while Shane Bieber will make what will likely be his final rehab start tomorrow.
Getting Tommy Nance back in the bullpen should also provide an underrated boost to the team. Nance has pitched to a 3.66 ERA and 2.68 xFIP this season, after an excellent 2025 campaign in which he pitched to a 1.99 ERA and 2.85 xFIP.
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