Our Blue Jays vs. Twins prediction for May 1 leans toward a low‑strikeout game, with Toronto’s patient approach at the plate clashing against a Minnesota starting pitcher that hasn’t fooled anyone with his mediocre arsenal of pitches.
Simeon Woods Richardson’s poor whiff and chase rates, combined with the Blue Jays’ league‑leading contact profile, make the under on his 3.5‑strikeout line the most compelling angle for Friday’s MLB matchup at Target Field.
Blue Jays vs. Twins prediction
Woods Richardson under 3.5 strikeouts: -110 @ Sports Interaction
Woods Richardson under 3.5 strikeouts
The Blue Jays only strike out an average of 6.77 times per game, which is by far the best mark in the majors this season. Most teams in MLB are striking out an average of around 8.3 times per game.
Additionally, Woods Richardson isn’t fooling anyone this season with his horrific 11% strikeout rate, which ranks in just the second percentile among qualified pitchers.
In his last start against the Blue Jays on April 10, Woods Richardson managed only two strikeouts across four innings at Rogers Centre. Additionally, he’s come in under this line in five of his six starts this season, with the only outlier being a four-strikeout performance against Tampa on April 5.
Always be sure to shop around for the most favourable prices at the best MLB betting sites before locking in your MLB wagers.
Blue Jays vs. Twins odds
| Blue Jays moneyline odds | -110 |
| Twins moneyline odds | -110 |
| Run line odds | Twins -1.5 (+180), Blue Jays +1.5 (-220) |
| Game total | Over 8.5 runs (-120), Under 8.5 (+100) |
| Date/time | May 1, 8:10 p.m. ET |
Betting Toronto Blue Jays (14-17 SU, 12-19 ATS, 16-15 o/u)
Toronto’s only run Thursday came off the bat of Daulton Varsho, who crushed his fourth homer of the season. As a team, the Blue Jays left a whopping 15 runners on base in the loss, failing to capitalize in several instances through the game.
George Springer, in just his second game back from a toe injury, produced two hits in the loss to bring his tally to three in the last two games.
Toronto is averaging just 3.54 runs per game on the road this season, the third-worst mark in the majors.
Betting Minnesota Twins (14-18, 16-16 ATS, 19-12-1 o/u)
The Twins entered this series having won just two of their last 13 games, so snagging a 7-1 victory on Thursday night puts them in a good position to claim their first series victory since April 13-15 against the Red Sox.
Byron Buxton homered for the third time in four games, and Ryan Jeffers also went deep to lift the Twins to victory despite the team recording just six hits. Three of those hits came courtesy of Buxton.
Bettors should know Twins pitchers have excelled at limiting the long ball, holding the opposition to 26 home runs through 32 games, the second fewest in the majors.
Probable starting pitchers
Toronto: LHP Patrick Corbin (0-0, 3.72 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 7.45 K/9)
Corbin made his Blue Jays debut on April 10 against the Twins, allowing four earned runs or six hits over four innings while striking out three.
Since then, he’s really settled in quite nicely, holding the opposition to two earned runs or less across three starts.
Corbin hasn’t exceeded 85 pitches in a start this season and has yet to pitch beyond the sixth inning.
Minnesota: RHP Simeon Woods Richardson (0-4, 6.30 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, 4.50 K/9)
After two solid starts to open the season, it’s been all downhill for Woods Richardson over his last four starts. He’s allowed three earned runs or more in each of his last four outings and is coming off a rough start against the Rays, who touched him up for four runs on eight hits over 4 1/3 innings.
Woods Richardson ranks in the second percentile in strikeout rate (11%), the sixth percentile in chase rate (21.7%), and the eighth percentile in whiff rate (17.1%) this season. The opposition is also hitting .300 or better against his fastball, splitter, and slider, his three most-used pitches.
The right-hander allowed five earned runs on six hits over four innings on April 10 against the Blue Jays in an eventual 10-4 Toronto victory at Rogers Centre.
Notable injuries
The following players are on the injured list for Toronto:
- OF Anthony Santander (shoulder)
- P Cody Ponce (knee)
- C Alejandro Kirk (thumb)
- P Jose Berrios (elbow)
- P Shane Bieber (elbow)
- P Yimi Garcia (elbow)
- P Bowden Francis (elbow)
- OF Addison Barger (ankle)
- OK Nathan Lukes (hamstring)
- P Max Scherzer (forearm)
The following players are on the injured list for Minnesota:
- P Pablo Lopez (elbow)
- P David Festa (shoulder)
- P Mick Abel (triceps)
- P Cody Laweryson (forearm)
- P Travis Adams (triceps)
- P Garrett Acton (shoulder)
Weather
It’s going to be another cool evening at Target Field, with expected temperatures around 9 C and clear skies. Winds will be light and won’t play a factor.
Blue Jays vs. Twins betting trends
- The Twins have hit the F5 moneyline in 12 of their last 14 home games.
- The Blue Jays have hit the F5 team total under in nine of their last 11 road games.
- The Twins have hit the team total over in 20 of their last 31 games.
Blue Jays vs. Twins player prop trends
- Woods Richardson has recorded three strikeouts or less in five of his six starts this season. He’s -125 to record under 3.5 strikeouts on Friday night.
- Woods Richardson has allowed five hits or more in five of his six starts this season, averaging 6.3 per game in that span. He’s -130 to allow five or more hits against the Blue Jays.
- Davis Schneider has three home runs in seven career at-bats against Woods Richardson. As of Friday morning, there aren’t any lines on Schneider home runs, but they’ll likely appear later if he’s included in the lineup.
- Buxton has homered in three of his last four games and is +390 to go deep.
- Jeffers is riding a six-game hit streak into action Friday and is -185 to extend that streak.
