Dallas’s 9-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and its track record as a short-price underdog this season give us reason to take the Cowboys +1.5 (-115) when they visit the Green Bay Packers for Week 6 Sunday Night Football on Oct. 18, 2026. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET at Lambeau Field in Green Bay. This is a lean on the number, not a confident read on either defence: Green Bay is the home favourite off back-to-back wins, and Dallas is coming off its worst loss of the Brian Schottenheimer era.
Containing Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb is one problem for Green Bay; stopping the run is another. “They’re going to make you earn it,” Packers head coach Matt LaFleur said this week of a Cowboys offence that has scored freely all season. Dallas, meanwhile, knows it is walking into a desperate building. “No, not really,” Schottenheimer said when asked if Green Bay’s two-game winning streak worried him.
As always, compare prices at the best NFL betting sites before locking in a wager.
Cowboys vs. Packers Prediction
- Cowboys +1.5 (-115): Dallas has covered in both games as an underdog this season, and its offence has gone over the team total in four of five outings. A Packers win by a single point or an overtime finish — as happened in last year’s 40-40 tie between these teams — still cashes this ticket; anything larger does not. The Cowboys’ defence has allowed 10 touchdown passes and has yet to record an interception, which tempers how much confidence we can put in the points holding. We prefer the cushion to backing Dallas outright and would not take this lean at the pick’em line some books posted earlier in the week.
Cowboys vs. Packers Odds
| Market | Odds or details |
|---|---|
| Cowboys moneyline | +102 |
| Packers moneyline | -122 |
| Spread | Cowboys +1.5 (-118), Packers -1.5 (-105) |
| Game total | Over 53.5 (-110), Under 53.5 (-110) |
| Date/time | Oct. 18, 2026, 8:20 p.m. ET |
| Venue | Lambeau Field, Green Bay |
About the Cowboys (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS, 4-1 o/u)
Dallas fell 24-16 to Tampa Bay on Thursday Night Football on Oct. 8, a game that ended with Prescott completing a season-low 57.1 per cent of his throws and taking a game-sealing interception off Jake Ferguson’s hands. Through five games, Prescott has thrown for 1,381 yards with nine touchdowns and three interceptions and holds the NFL’s best quarterback-receiver passer rating tandem this season with Lamb, at 157.8.
Lamb, however, left and returned in Week 5 with a quad injury and finished with fewer than 10 receiving yards. He has 39 catches for 507 yards and four touchdowns on the year, but his practice status will be worth watching into the weekend. The Cowboys’ larger issue remains defensive: Dallas is the NFL’s only team without an interception this season, and Schottenheimer has promised “roster adjustments” after the team missed 16 tackles against Tampa Bay.
About the Packers (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS, 2-3 o/u)
Green Bay has won two straight, highlighted by a 31-7 rout of Chicago on Oct. 11 in which Jordan Love completed 25 of 31 passes for 367 yards and two touchdowns without a turnover. Love has thrown for 1,408 yards with 10 touchdowns and three interceptions through five games, and his 2.54-second average time to throw against the Bears pointed to real progress from a retooled offensive line.
The running game remains the glaring weak spot. Green Bay ranks last in the NFL in rushing offence at 60.4 yards per game, a problem that persists even with Josh Jacobs healthy. LaFleur has also confirmed star pass rusher Micah Parsons, acquired from Dallas before the 2025 season, will again miss the Cowboys game; Parsons has not practised since tearing his ACL and meniscus last December and remains on the physically unable to perform list.
Betting Mismatch
The matchup on paper could not be more lopsided in the areas that matter. Dallas owns the NFL’s worst run defence at 168.4 yards allowed per game, while Green Bay owns the NFL’s worst rushing attack at 60.4 yards per game — the one thing Dallas cannot stop is the one thing Green Bay cannot do. The Cowboys also rank 32nd on third-down defence at 52.6 per cent allowed, while the Packers rank 32nd on third-down offence at 27.6 per cent, pairing two bottom-of-the-league units against one another in the same game.
That leaves the passing matchups to decide it. Green Bay is tied for the most interceptions in the league on defence, with seven, while Dallas has yet to intercept a pass all season. Love has looked comfortable attacking downfield, and Prescott and Lamb have been close to automatic when healthy. For the Cowboys +1.5 lean, the number matters more than the winner: last season’s meeting between these teams finished 40-40 in overtime, and a similarly tight finish is well within reach again.
Key Injuries
Dallas right guard Tyler Booker (ankle), cornerback Trevon Diggs (knee) and Lamb (ankle, quad) did not practise to open the week, while cornerbacks DaRon Bland (foot) and Trikweze Bridges (knee) were limited. None of those designations rules a player out, but Lamb’s availability is the one to track closest.
Green Bay’s injury report is considerably longer. Right tackle Zach Tom did not practise after an oblique injury forced him out after one snap in Cleveland, and the Packers also have Anthony Belton (ankle), Karl Brooks (foot), John FitzPatrick (groin), Jacobs (ankle), Tucker Kraft (knee/elbow), Rasheed Walker (quad) and Devonte Wyatt (knee) all listed as limited. Parsons remains out. Love (thumb), Nate Hobbs and Bo Melton were full participants and carry no real injury concern into Sunday.
Weather
The preliminary forecast for Green Bay calls for a mostly sunny, breezy evening, with a temperature around 18 C, wind near 25 to 30 km/h out of the southwest and only a slight chance of precipitation. Those conditions don’t give us a reason to favour either side or lean off the total.
Betting Trends
- The Cowboys are 2-0 against the spread as underdogs this season.
- The over is 4-1 in the Cowboys’ games this season.
- The under is 3-2 in the Packers’ games this season.
- Green Bay is 1-1 against the spread at home in 2026.
Player Prop Trends
- Javonte Williams anytime touchdown: Williams has had at least 15 touches and scored 14 or more fantasy points in four of five games this season, and Green Bay has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to running backs. That workload makes him a lean worth considering, though a crowded red zone can still leave a bellcow back without a score.
- CeeDee Lamb over receiving yards: Lamb’s season numbers rank fourth in the NFL, but his practice participation this week bears watching after his Week 5 quad issue. A clean bill of health would make a receiving-yards prop appealing against a Green Bay secondary that has otherwise played well.
- Christian Watson anytime touchdown: Watson caught both of Love’s touchdown passes against Chicago, covering 42 and 53 yards, and has emerged as Love’s top downfield target over the past two weeks. That role gives him a credible path to the end zone again against a Dallas defence still searching for its first takeaway of the season.
