Our Orioles vs. Blue Jays prediction comes with plenty of playoff implications as Baltimore and Toronto meet Friday night at Rogers Centre. Both teams are chasing the final American League wild-card spot with just 15 games remaining, leaving little room for error down the stretch. Chris Bassitt returns to Toronto to face his former team, while Max Scherzer takes the mound for the Blue Jays. With both clubs desperate for a win, expect a tense series opener with plenty on the line.
Orioles vs. Blue Jays prediction
Chris Bassitt to record under 17.5 outs: -111 best odds @ Betano
Bassitt to record under 17.5 outs
Bassitt will make his return to the Rogers Centre mound on Friday for the first time since signing with the Orioles in the offseason. It’s sure to be an emotional night for the veteran right-hander, who spent three seasons in Toronto, but this game is far too important for the Orioles for him to get caught up in his emotions.
Bassitt has recorded 18 outs or more in just 24% of his starts this season (4 of 17), and he’s only accomplished the feat once in his last six appearances. And it’s unlikely he’ll have a long leash on Friday night, especially considering the game context and the fact that Baltimore had a day off on Thursday for its bullpen to become fully rested heading into this series. Only three Baltimore relievers threw on Wednesday against Cleveland, which means manager Craig Albernaz won’t hesitate to give Bassitt the early hook at the first sign of trouble. This is a must-win game for the Orioles, and they’ll need to pull out all of the stops in a game that should have a playoff-type feel with so much on the line.
At -111 odds (52% implied odds), back a short outing from Bassitt on Friday in his return to Rogers Centre as he records under 17.5 outs.
Orioles vs. Blue Jays odds
| Orioles moneyline odds | +105 |
| Blue Jays moneyline odds | -125 |
| Run line odds | Blue Jays -1.5 (+160), Orioles +1.5 (-190) |
| Game total | Over 8 runs (-115), Under 8 runs (-105) |
| Date/time | Sept. 11, 7:07 p.m. ET |
Betting the Orioles (71-76 SU, 75-72 ATS, 74-69-2 o/u)
Bettors should expect a real sense of urgency from the Orioles on Friday, as they have virtually no margin for error if they want to make a playoff push. Baltimore is three games out of the final AL wild-card spot currently occupied by Cleveland with 15 games remaining, so anything less than taking two of three games from Toronto will essentially squash its postseason aspirations.
The Orioles are just 3-7 in their last 10 games and have just a 4.7% chance of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs projections.
Betting the Blue Jays (73-74 SU, 72-75 ATS, 74-71-2 o/u)
This series is also incredibly important for the Blue Jays, as they’re also right in the mix for the final AL wild-card spot. Toronto trails Cleveland by just a single game with 15 games left on the schedule, giving it a 33.4% chance of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs.
Friday will mark the first of six games at Rogers Centre for Toronto, which will welcome Detroit for three games after the Orioles leave town.
Probable starting pitchers
Baltimore: RHP Chris Bassitt (6-5, 4.96 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 6.43 K/9)
Bassitt has been an effective innings eater for the Orioles this season in the wake of several pitching injuries, but his numbers are far from impressive. His 5.05 xERA ranks in just the 13th percentile among qualified pitchers, and the opposition owns a lofty .285 xBA against him.
However, the right-hander turned in a fantastic outing against his former Blue Jays club back on May 28, hurling six innings of one-run ball on four hits while recording a pair of strikeouts. He was also decent in his last outing against Boston on May 5, holding the Red Sox to three runs on five hits over 5 2/3 innings.
Bassitt does an excellent job of mixing up all seven of his pitches to keep opposing hitters off balance, ranking in the 88th percentile with a low 4.9% barrel rate. Expect lots of weak contact from Toronto hitters on Friday night.
Toronto: RHP Max Scherzer (2-7, 6.03 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 6.89 K/9)
Scherzer has been exceptional for the Blue Jays over his last three starts, holding the opposition to five runs over his last 17 2/3 innings. The future Hall of Famer will likely be making the final few appearances of his illustrious career down the stretch in September for Toronto, so expect the righty to keep turning in gutsy, but unspectacular, efforts over the next few weeks.
The 42-year-old has been far from impressive this season, owning an ugly 6.03 ERA across 14 appearances, but he’s been known to rise to the occasion in big games throughout his career, and every game down the stretch is now of the utmost importance for Toronto’s playoff chances.
Notable injuries
The following notable players are out for Baltimore:
- 3B Blaze Alexander (back)
- SS Gunnar Henderson (foot – GTD)
- 1B Ryan Mountcastle (foot)
- P Ryan Helsley (elbow)
- OF Tyler O’Neill (shoulder)
- IF Jordan Westburg (elbow)
The following notable players are unavailable for Toronto:
- OF Addison Barger (elbow)
- P José Berríos (elbow)
- P Bowden Francis (shoulder)
- OF Anthony Santander (shoulder)
- P Trey Yesavage (knee)
- P Patrick Corbin (shoulder)
- P Shane Bieber (shoulder)
- P Jameson Taillon (elbow)
- P Yimi Garcia (elbow)
Weather
Forecasts are calling for temperatures around 20 C and clear skies on Friday evening in Toronto, so that means the retractable roof at Rogers Centre should be open. Winds will lightly blow out to left field at 5 mph.
Orioles vs. Blue Jays betting trends
- The Blue Jays are 4-3 vs. the Orioles this season.
- The over is 6-0 in the past six meetings between the teams.
- The Blue Jays have covered the run line in 12 of their last 17 home games.
- Toronto has hit the team total under in 23 of its last 35 home games.
Orioles vs. Blue Jays player prop trends
- Bassitt has struck out four or more batters in four straight starts and seven of his last 10. He’s -105 to record over 3.5 strikeouts on Friday.
- Scherzer has recorded five strikeouts or less in 13 of his 14 appearances this season, averaging 3.4 per start. He’s around -150 to record under 5.5 strikeouts against the Orioles.
- Nathan Lukes has hit safely in eight straight games and 16 of his last 20. He’s -210 to extend that streak.
- Colton Cowser is 2-for-6 with a pair of home runs in his career against Scherzer. He’s +500 to go deep in the series opener.
