If you’re looking for the best home run picks today, we’ve identified three hitters with the power, matchup, and conditions to leave the yard on Wednesday’s MLB slate. From elite sluggers facing vulnerable pitchers to favourable weather and ballpark factors that boost home run potential, these are the best value bets to go deep. Below, we break down our top home run picks for July 29, along with the MLB odds and analysis behind each selection.
Yordan Alvarez (+200)
Turn your sound up and listen to this clip of Alvarez absolutely destroying a baseball last night.
Yes, this pick is a little chalky, but there’s sufficient evidence to believe Alvarez, MLB’s home run leader with 35 this season, will go deep again on Wednesday in Anaheim under hot and humid conditions with a slight breeze (8 mph) blowing out to centre field.
Alvarez has the highest isolated power value (.322) in baseball by a wide margin over the next best player (Ben Rice, .306), and he ranks in the 100th percentile in xSLG (.718), the 99th percentile in barrel % (18.8%), and the 96th percentile in hard-hit rate (53.9%) this season.
Grayson Rodriguez, who owns a dreadful 8.54 ERA and 1.79 WHIP across nine starts this season, will toe the rubber for the Angels, setting up a favourable matchup for Alvarez on Wednesday.
Alvarez to hit a home run
Willson Contreras (+235)
Bettors should take a serious look at Contreras to go deep on Wednesday night at Sutter Health Park, one of the best hitter-friendly environments in the league.
The A’s will be starting left-hander Jacob Lopez, who owns a dreadful 7.62 ERA across six starts at the minor-league venue this season. He’s allowed five homers across those 26 innings pitched.
Extremely hot and humid conditions are expected for this game, and winds will help any balls in the air out to centre field at 9 mph.
Contreras, who owns the 12th-best isolated power value (.256) in baseball this season, has been swinging a hot bat in July, slashing .309/.465/.600 with a 1.065 OPS and four homers in 55 at-bats. He’s never faced Wilson before but has thrived from a power perspective against left-handed pitching this season, smashing seven of his 22 homers in only 90 at-bats against southpaws.
Contreras to hit a home run
Jose Ramirez (+290)
Ramirez hasn’t homered since June 6, but he has an advantageous matchup on Wednesday against the Reds in Cincinnati.
Cleveland’s third baseman has three career homers in 31 at-bats against Reds starting pitcher Brady Singer to go along with a .627 slugging percentage and an elite 1.267 OPS.
Ramirez will also have ideal weather conditions for the long ball at Great American Ballpark, which has the second highest Park Factor rating in the league at 118 for home runs, with hot and humid conditions expected. Winds are also expected to blow out lightly to centre field at 9 mph.
