In this article, we’ll outline our best Golden Knights vs Hurricanes prediction for Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Final, as well as the relevant betting notes for both teams, so you can place a winning wager with any of the best NHL betting sites.
Every game of the Stanley Cup Final has been can’t-miss television, and Game 4 offered yet another back-and-forth thriller. All four games have featured a blown multi-goal lead, and all four have also been tied at some point in the third period.
In NHL playoff series that have reached Game 5 tied at two, the winner of Game 5 has gone on to win 81% of the time (496-116). Oddsmakers currently offer the Hurricanes a 60% chance of winning Game 5, and heading back to Vegas with the opportunity to secure their first title since 2006.
After losing our Game 4 selection we are sitting at 2-2 on the series (-0.12 units), and will look to get back in the green by backing Game 5 to require overtime at +310.
Hurricanes vs Golden Knights Game 5 Prediction: Regulation Tie +310 (Play to +295)
Game to require overtime
Two of the first four games of the final have required overtime, and all four games have been tied at some point in the final 10 minutes of play. Neither team has consistently been able to outplay the other for an extended period of play, and that seems likely to hold true in Game 5, which makes the tie look quite appealing at the long price of +310.
While Carolina outshot the Knights 28-21 in Game 4, it certainly did not feel like the Hurricanes had a commanding hold on the game. High-danger scoring chances at even strength finished tied 8-8, while offensive zone possession time was also quite equal.
The Knights closed at -105 in Game 4, which suggests the change of venue is getting a lot of credit, as the Knights are +130 underdogs now that the scene has shifted back to Carolina. Based on what we have seen all postseason long, and from these two teams in particularly, that feels like a pretty significant adjustment based on perceived home-ice advantage.
Though the Hurricanes are fairly significant favourites, it feels highly unlikely that they will win this game in blowout fashion. The Knights continue to do a good job of creating ultra-threatening looks and have had an answer in moments where Carolina feels to be pulling away.
It will obviously take some luck for this bet to get home, but based on the closely contested nature of this series, a price of +310 seems quite strong for a bet that feels likely to be in play late in the third period in some form or another.
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Odds
| Golden Knights Moneyline Odds | (+130) |
| Hurricanes Moneyline Odds | (-155) |
| Puck Line Odds | Golden Knights +1.5 (-200) Hurricanes -1.5 (+165) |
| Series Winner Odds | Golden Knights (+125), Hurricanes (-150) |
| Goal Total | Over 6.5 Goals (+110), Under 6.5 Goals (-130) |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Betting Vegas Golden Knights
The Knights had two meaningful opportunities to tie the game following Jordan Staal’s late go-ahead goal and also had their chances to take the lead prior to that point. Even arriving into that situation following another poor start versus a typically stingy Hurricanes side is impressive.
But what has to hurt the most is the lost defensive zone coverage on the go-ahead marker, as four Knights skaters chased Seth Jarvis into the corner, leaving Staal unchecked out front. The Knights have mainly done an excellent job of protecting the front of the net this postseason, even in spurts where they have been outplayed, and generally having at least one defender present to clear out that type of look is a strength of their defensive zone system.
Based on their excellent depth, overall aggressiveness, and ability to push the play, the Hurricanes will always have moments where they take it to the opposition. That would be true no matter who came out of the West, but the game-winning goal was not the type of thing we have seen consistently from the Knights prior to this series.
The shaky defensive play has gone both ways, though. In many instances in this series, the Knights have read when to cheat the play in the defensive zone and created some really good looks on plays going the other way. That has been especially true in the long change second period, where the Knights have been entirely dominant in the series.
The Golden Knights have played to a 52.06% expected goal share in the series, and though they are generating only 23.73 shots for per 60, their average shot quality has been quite high.
Carolina’s goaltenders hold a save percentage of just .850 in the series, which after reviewing the tape, is seemingly more of a testament to the quality of looks Vegas is generating on average than it is to poor play in goal from Frederik Andersen and Brandon Bussi.
Jack Eichel is the only top skater from the Knights who has struggled to convert his quality opportunities. Eichel has had 21 scoring chances in the series, and many of those have been of high quality. He’s not necessarily been bad in the series but has definitely offered the least noteworthy performance out of any of Vegas’s true stars.
Carter Hart holds an .852 save percentage in the series and has certainly offered reduced form relative to the previous three rounds. He’d surely love to have Staal’s game-winner back and stopped 23 of 27 shots faced in Game 4. He will undoubtedly still get the start in Game 5.
Betting Carolina Hurricanes
Carolina came flying out of the gates in Game 4 to secure a 2-0 lead, but following Mark Stone’s goal which cut the lead in half, the game felt like a coin-flip. The Hurricanes caught a break at the end of the first as a potential Brayden McNabb goal was deemed just after the buzzer, but they still allowed Vegas to tie the game thanks to a sloppy defensive performance in the second period.
The Hurricanes are generating a respectable amount of chances and have carried a little more of the overall possession in the series. That’s far from a surprise. But the Knights have done a good job of capitalizing when the Hurricanes are overly aggressive in transition, and done a good job of exposing Carolina’s man-on-man defensive system.
As Rod Brind’Amour acknowledged, it’s not overly realistic to dominate a team like Vegas for the entirety of any game. That was known entering the series. However the main coaching points will likely be aiming to shore up the team’s reads in the defensive zone and at the opposing blue line and perhaps trade in a little bit of possession time in order to prevent the type of breakdowns that have been surprisingly common.
Jaccob Slavin has very much had a down year, a fact that would likely be more consistently discussed if he had built up a well-deserved reputation of being one of the game’s best shutdown defenders. Slavin had some shaky moments once again in Game 4, and the Knights’ top stars have done a good job of exposing his reduced effectiveness thus far in the series, which has been one minor reason for the surprisingly high scorelines.
Through his first two appearances of the postseason, Bussi holds a .900 save percentage and +0.4 GSAx rating, and should be a safe bet to get the start after earning the win in Game 4.
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