Our Phillies vs. Blue Jays prediction for Monday night will be fading scorching hot starter Cristopher Sanchez in the strikeout market.
After authoring consecutive 6-4 comeback victories over the Baltimore Orioles, the Blue Jays are now just two games back of .500 and a half-game back of the final AL Wild Card spot. They are heavy underdogs in Monday’s series opener, as they will face off against Cristopher Sanchez, whose historic 44 and 2/3 innings scoreless streak ended at the tail end of his last start.
We’ve had a solid start to the season with a record of +3.25 units throughout four selections and will look to build on that mark Monday with a contrarian prop fading baseball’s hottest starter.
Phillies vs Blue Jays Prediction: Sanchez Under 6.5 Strikeouts -110 (Play to -120)
Sanchez under 6.5 strikeouts
Over his last six starts Sanchez has been downright untouchable, authoring a 0.51 ERA and 2.18 xFIP. He’s struck out 10.25 batters per nine in that span and managed a strikeout-minus- walk rate of 27.0%.
If this prop is to miss, it will be easy for readers to say, “How could you possibly fade Sanchez right now?”. Oddsmakers are obviously aware of what he’s been doing though, and this appears to be a decent time to fade Sanchez after the best run of his career, specifically in this market.
Last season the Jays were incredible versus elite starters and consistently did an excellent job of driving up pitch counts and getting into opposing bullpens early. Over the last two weeks, Toronto’s plate discipline has been considerably improved, as it has struck out just 18.9% of the time (second lowest in MLB) and holds a wRC+ of 119.
Toronto strayed away from the approach that brought so much success last year early on this season, but have started to turn the corner offensively of late, and we have started to see far fewer easy outs being made.
The Blue Jays faced off against another dominant lefty in Chris Sale last Thursday and rattled off 10 hits while striking out six times. It’s not entirely a one-to-one comparison, but Sale holds a nearly identical strikeout percentage as Sanchez, and Sale’s strikeout prop was set at 7.5 entering that matchup.
And while the feat Sanchez has accomplished of late would be impressive even in Triple-A, his last six starts did come versus opposing lineups averaging poorly in wRC+ versus left-handed pitching this season, so he was aided by a notably soft schedule.
The DNA of the 2025 Blue Jays offence had all last year seems to be shining through a little more of late, and this sets up as a strong opportunity to fade Sanchez in this specific market.
Phillies vs. Blue Jays Odds
| Phillies Moneyline Odds | (-170) |
| Blue Jays Moneyline Odds | (+145) |
| Run Line Odds | Phillies -1.5 (+100), Blue Jays +1.5 (-120) |
| Run Total | Over 7.5 Runs (-105), Under 7.5 Runs (-115) |
| Date/Time | June 8, 7:07 p.m. ET |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Betting Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies’ wildly underwhelming start to the season feels like ages ago, as they have played to a record of 25-11 since Don Mattingly took the helm and are now 35-30. However, even under Mattingly, the Phillies’ offensive splits have remained quite mediocre, as they hold a wRC+ of 96 and a batting average of .236.
The pitching staff has been dominant since Mattingly took over, though, as it holds an ERA of 3.24 across 333 innings. Largely due to their excellent pitching, the Phillies have also fared much better in one-run games under Mattingly, setting the perfect script for the illusion that he has entirely turned things around.
Philadelphia holds a wRC+ of just 89 and slashed .216/.296/.370 versus lefties this season, and it is logical for its lineup to hold lesser splits versus southpaws with righties Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh providing much of the team’s offensive upside.
Betting Toronto Blue Jays
Corbin worked his way into several two-out jams last time out versus the Braves, and ultimately allowed four earned runs across five innings of work. Corbin had not allowed more than three earned runs since his first appearance with the team and has been a surprisingly important addition to the depleted staff, having pitched to an ERA of 3.98 across his first 54 and 1/3 innings with the team.
Given Corbin’s form over the last several seasons, it’s not overly surprising that his underlying results suggest he has not been quite as effective as his ERA suggests. Over his last 35 innings pitched Corbin holds a 4.66 xFIP and 4.97 xERA but has done a relatively good job of stranding base-runners and allowed only 1.03 home runs per nine.
While absences from the lineup have hurt Toronto’s overall offensive upside this season, those absences cannot necessarily be argued to be an issue recently due to how effective a number of fill-ins and/or depth batters have been. Brandon Valenzuela, Yohendrick Pinango, Kazuma Okamoto and even Charles McAdoo have all been on fire, and it’s been the disappointing form of George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. holding the lineup back.
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