The Guardians enter Monday night with a clear edge on the mound, and the latest Guardians vs. Blue Jays odds reflect a matchup that slightly favours Cleveland in the series opener at Rogers Centre.
With Gavin Williams in strong form and Max Scherzer still searching for consistency, the Guardians look like the healthier, more stable side, while Toronto continues to battle injuries and uneven run production.
Guardians vs. Blue Jays prediction
Guardians moneyline: -120 @ Pinnacle
Guardians moneyline
The Guardians have an edge in the starting pitching matchup with Williams squaring off against Scherzer and are by far the healthier of the two teams heading into this series opener, so it’s a little surprising to see them as just small favourites on Monday night.
Cleveland is 6-3 in the past nine meetings with the Blue Jays and is an impressive 15-11 on the run line this season.
Both teams had Thursday off and will have the full use of their respective bullpens as a result.
Be sure to shop around for the most favourable Guardians vs. Blue Jays odds at the best MLB betting sites before locking in any wagers.
Guardians vs. Blue Jays odds
| Guardians moneyline odds | -130 |
| Blue Jays moneyline odds | +110 |
| Run line odds | Guardians -1.5 (+135), Blue Jays +1.5 (-160) |
| Game total | Over 8 runs (+100), Under 8 (-120) |
| Date/time | April 24, 7:07 p.m. ET |
Betting the Guardians (14-12 SU, 15-11 ATS, 13-13 o/u)
The Guardians dropped two of three to the Houston Astros earlier this week, but they still remain above .500 and in the mix with the Detroit Tigers for the top spot in the AL Central.
Cleveland is averaging four runs scored per game (22nd in MLB) while allowing 4.3, and a quick dive into other statistical categories reveals that the Guardians rank around league average almost across the board.
One of the most budget-friendly teams in baseball, the Guardians always find a way to be competitive year after year despite lacking serious star power.
Betting the Blue Jays (10-14 SU, 8-16 ATS, 12-12 o/u)
The Blue Jays had their three-game winning streak halted by the Angels on Wednesday, but they did pick up their first series win since the opening series of the regular season against the Athletics.
Injuries have ravaged Toronto’s roster through the first month of the season, resulting in an ugly 8-16 record on the run line to this point. However, some of those injured players appear to be on the mend and should be returning shortly, but there likely won’t be any reinforcements arriving in time for this series with the Guardians.
Probable starting pitcher
Cleveland: RHP Gavin Williams (3-1, 2.12 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 12.13 K/9)
Williams has picked up right where he left off from a breakout 2025 season that saw him post a 12-5 record with a 3.06 ERA and 3.8 pitching WAR.
The right-hander has allowed three earned runs or less across each of his five starts, posting double digits in strikeouts in two of those appearances. He punched out 11 Baltimore Orioles the last time he took the hill, holding the O’s to one run on three hits over seven innings.
Williams has had success this season by using his fastball a little less (28% of the time) compared to years prior, and mixing in more sweepers (27%) and curveballs (14%). He ranks in the 94th percentile in strikeout rate (34.8) and the 88th percentile in xBA (.184) this season. His 55.2% ground-ball rate is also elite, ranking in the 88th percentile.
Williams was highly impressive in 15 road starts last season, recording a 3.12 ERA while holding opponents to a .217 batting average.
Toronto: RHP Max Scherzer (1-2, 7.16 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 5.51 K/9)
Scherzer’s numbers are skewed by a disastrous start two weeks ago against the Minnesota Twins, who hammered the veteran hurler for eight runs on five hits over just 2 1/3 innings. However, he was solid in his other three outings, holding the opposition to two earned runs or less.
The 41-year-old’s advanced metrics aren’t very impressive, as his once elite stuff continues to decline with age. Scherzer owns an ugly 6.11 xERA, with opponents boasting a lofty .290 xBA against him.
One positive for Scherzer heading into this start is that the players on the current Indians roster have combined for only a .153/.206/.410 slash line in 59 at-bats against him.
Notable injuries
The following players are on the injured list for Cleveland:
- SS Gabriel Arias (hamstring)
- P Andrew Walters (lat)
The following players are on the injured list for Toronto:
- OF Anthony Santander (shoulder)
- P Cody Ponce (knee)
- C Alejandro Kirk (thumb)
- P Trey Yesavage (shoulder)
- P Jose Berrios (elbow)
- P Shane Bieber (elbow)
- P Yimi Garcia (elbow)
- P Bowden Francis (elbow)
- OF Addison Barger (ankle)
- OF George Springer (toe)
Weather
Cold temperatures and a risk of rain will keep the retractable dome at Rogers Centre closed for this contest.
Guardians vs. Blue Jays betting trends
- The Blue Jays have hit the F5 team total under in 11 of their last 15 games at home.
- The Guardians have covered the F5 run line in 33 of their past 50 away games.
- The over is 4-1 in the past five meetings between these teams.
Guardians vs. Blue Jays player prop trends
- Williams has allowed two earned or fewer in four of his five starts this season and is -150 to record under 2.5 earned runs.
- Blue Jays outfielder Eloy Jimenez has hit safely in five straight games and is -175 to extend that streak.
- Guardians outfielder Steven Kwan has walked in three straight games and is +160 to extend that streak.
- Kwan has recorded under 1.5 total bases in six straight games and is -160 to do it again.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is 3-for-5 with a home run in his career vs. Williams.