With 14 games on the March 14 NHL slate, join Canada Sports Betting as we craft a same game parlay for the matchup between the Montreal Canadiens and San Jose Sharks.
With a record of 6-1-3 over their last 10 games, the Canadiens have earned a fairly significant lead over the Detroit Red Wings and Boston Bruins in the ultra-competitive Atlantic Division race. As of Friday afternoon, bet365 offers the Canadiens a 97% chance of making the playoffs heading into Saturday’s clash with the Sharks, something we are happy to see based on our preseason position that they would get in.
The Sharks did the Canadiens a favour Thursday night as they earned an upset win over the Boston Bruins on the road. San Jose currently holds the final Wild Card spot out West, after being priced at +1100 to make the playoffs entering the season with a betting total of 70.5 points.
The Sharks bested the Canadiens, 7-5, on March 3rd in San Jose, in what was the only matchup out of Montreal’s last 12 games in which it has failed to get at least one point. We will count on the Canadiens avenging the previous defeat in San Jose, as well as another strong Saturday night performance from Cole Caufield, to get our SGP home at +615.
Saturday’s SGP prices out at +400 at the time of writing, and is eligible for a 30% same game parlay boost from our top-ranked NHL betting site, bet365.
- Montreal Canadiens -1.5 (+125 as a straight bet)
- Over 5.5 Total Goals (-225 as a straight bet)
- Cole Caufield To Score (+120) as a straight bet)
Nick’s Canadiens/Sharks SGP
Leg 1: Montreal Canadiens -1.5 (+125 as a straight bet)
The Canadiens have really turned it on down the stretch, having played to a record of 8-1-3 over the last 12 games. Their power play holds an excellent 31.3% success rate in that span, while they hold the second-highest team save percentage in the NHL, after goaltending was a concern which hampered their overall game earlier on in the season.
Montreal does hold a sky-high PDO of 105.55 throughout its 12-game heater. That is an indicator of potential regression, which sharper handicappers are always aware of. Still, there’s a lot to like about where the young roster seems to be at right now.
Caufield, Nick Suzuki, and Juraj Slafkovsky have formed a dominant top line since being reunited by head coach Martin St. Louis last week. The team’s middle six has also looked quite solid recently, and looks to be more of a strength this season after being a weakness a year ago.
While the second line featuring Ivan Demidov and Oliver Kapanen will always garner more media coverage, the third line featuring Zac Bolduc, Jake Evans, and Kirby Dach has been highly effective. The trio holds a leading 62.5% expected goal share across 66.6 minutes of play and has outscored opponents 8-5 where it counts.
The depth of Montreal’s blue-line also looks quite solid, and is a significant advantage relative to what the Sharks are offering.
San Jose holds an expected goal share of 46.87% over the last 15 games, and is 6-6-3 in that span despite allowing 3.40 goals per game while scoring only 2.90 goals per game.
While San Jose was able to earn a surprising win over the Canadiens in the previous matchup, it is fair to speculate that the gap between these teams would look even wider if Montreal were competing out of the much softer Western Conference. Montreal is 20-7-2 versus the West this season.
Leg 2: Over 5.5 Goals (-225 as a straight bet)
Led by Macklin Celebrini, the budding young Sharks continue to display respectable offensive upside and have generated 3.27 xGF/60 over the last 15 games. However, they still offer a number of well below-average defensive skaters and are receiving fairly average play in goal from Alex Nedeljkovic and Yaroslav Askarov, who have combined for an .895 save percentage this season.
The Canadiens have been in excellent form offensively and currently look to be a much less one-dimensional team offensively than they did last season, or even earlier on in this campaign. They have scored an average of 4.25 goals over the last 12 games, and it seems likely to expect another strong offensive performance Saturday versus a Sharks team that still has plenty of room to grow from a defensive perspective.
Leg 3: Cole Caufield To Score (+120 as a straight bet)
Caufield missed Wednesday’s matchup versus the Ottawa Senators due to illness, but he returned to practice Friday and should be a safe bet to play in this game.
Caufield has earned a new nickname with his performances on Saturdays this season, having scored 15 goals across 17 games on Saturday night. I’m not a big believer in betting into that type of trend, but it is an anecdote that suggests he loves to rise to the occasion when playing on nationally broadcast Hockey Night in Canada matchups.
From a more traditional handicapping perspective, prices in the +125 range continue to look worth playing for Caufield given his recent form. Over the last 20 games, Caufield has scored 16 goals and is generating an average of 0.49 individual expected goals in that span.
While he’s scored goals at a higher rate than expected based of late, the underlying metrics suggest he should continue to score often enough to make prices in this range profitable moving forward. Those numbers are also based off of league average finishing rates, and Caufield is one of the more talented finishers in the NHL.
In a matchup where the Canadiens should have a good chance to record four or more goals, we’re happy to back Caufield tallying his 38th of the season at +125.
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