Returning to the APEX Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown is set to bring the heat with several high-stakes matchups. With no shortage of terrific bouts scheduled to take place, take the excitement of the action to the next level by placing a bet on the main card of UFC Vegas 111 ahead of UFC 322 next weekend.
Below you will find my expert insight and analysis on each of my UFC Vegas 111 picks & predictions, as well as the best odds on each fighter competing at this can’t-miss event.
Check out my UFC Fight Night best bets below and be sure to load them into your bet slips this weekend so we can knock out the online sportsbooks with these moneymaking picks.
- Tulio by KO (+265)
- Padilla by SUB (+620)
- Salikhov by KO (+229)
- Schnell by DEC (+1300)
- Brown by KO (+420)
Randy Brown to Win by KO/TKO/DQ
Marco Tulio vs. Christian Leroy Duncan
Best Odds on Tulio to Win: -175 (bet365)
Best Odds on Duncan to Win: +160 (Sports Interaction)
Kicking off the main card with a battle between two of the most dangerous middleweights in the UFC, Marco “Matuto” Tulio takes on Christian Leroy “CLD” Duncan.
Pitting two combatants with decorated finishing resumes against one another is always a good recipe for fireworks inside the Octagon. While CLD has found great success through his first seven UFC appearances, scoring four of his five victories by knockout, look for him to be on the receiving end of a highlight-reel finish as Tulio connects with a fight-ending shot early on.
He may be giving up some size in this matchup, but don’t get it twisted, the power advantage is firmly on the side of Tulio. Hot off the heels of a masterfully dominant performance against Tresean Gore, Tulio extended his knockout streak to three in the UFC/Dana White Contender Series. With a diverse striking skill set, Tulio is able to mix up his combinations well, dealing out plenty of damage with his shot landed.
While Duncan has never been finished in his pro MMA career, he’s yet to face an opponent with the finishing power of Tulio. Look for Tulio to stay aggressive early on in the matchup, pressuring CLD as he cuts off the cage, finding openings in the lanky kickboxer’s stance. From here, look for Tulio to land first as he sends the Englishman crashing to the canvas, kicking off the main card with a devastating knockout victory.
Prediction: Tulio to Win by KO/TKO/DQ (+265 @ TonyBet)
Ismael Bonfim vs. Chris Padilla
Best Odds on Bonfim to Win: -188 (bet365)
Best Odds on Padilla to Win: +165 (Sports Interaction)
Set to enter the Octagon before his brother Gabriel does in the main event, Ismael “Marreta” Bonfim takes on Chris “Taco” Padilla. While Bonfim enters this clash as a slight favourite, look for Padilla to cash as an underdog, taking the win by submission.
After exploding onto the scene with his highlight-reel knockout against Terrence McKinney in 2023, Bonfim looked like he had the potential to become a contender at 155 lbs. This hasn’t been the case, however, as the Brazilian has gone 1-2 since then, with his lone victory coming by decision over an aging Vinc Pichel. A major area of weakness in Bonfim’s game has been his lacklustre grappling skills, something that plays right into the hands of his opponent, Padilla.
No stranger to pulling off the upset, Padilla has closed as the underdog in all three of his previous UFC bouts, winning each of them to the dismay of many bettors. With a well-rounded skill set, Padilla can adjust his game plan to target the holes in his opponents’ repertoire, in this case, the submission defence and cardio of Bonfim.
Expect to see Padilla brave the storm of the early offensive onslaught of Bonfim in the opening round, picking his moment wisely, before shooting for a takedown and locking in a fight-ending submission late in the first round, or early in the second. With four of Bonfim’s five career losses coming by way of submission, and Padilla having racked up five tap outs in his career, this is a no-brainer pick for this matchup.
At +620, hammer Padilla to take the win by submission as he cashes as an underdog for the fourth fight in a row, putting the MMA world on notice, and securing a statement-making win against a hyped opponent.
Prediction: Padilla by SUB (+620 @ TonyBet)
Muslim Salikhov vs. Uros Medic
Best Odds on Salikhov to Win: +138 (BetVictor)
Best Odds on Medic to Win: -160 (bet365)
Don’t blink, or you might miss the outcome of this welterweight bout between Muslim “King of Kung Fu” Salikhov vs. Uros “The Doctor” Medic. While I typically like to fade older fighters, in this case, age hasn’t slowed down the King of Kung Fu, as Salikhov is primed to score his second knockout victory in 2025.
Coming off his shocking 42-second knockout win against Carlos Leal at UFC Fight Night Abu Dhabi back in July, Salikhov continues to defy his advanced age and is in a great position to notch his fourth straight win against a dangerous prospect in Medic.
Both Salikhov and Medic are prolific knockout artists, with a combined 10 knockout wins between the fighters in the UFC. While Salikhov has gone the distance in four bouts in the UFC, Medic has never gone the distance in his entire professional MMA career, with only three of his 14 career bouts escaping the first round.
With both fighters primed to come out swinging, looking for a fight-ending blow early into the contest, expect Salikhov to utilize his wealth of knowledge and experience to his advantage, picking his shot carefully as he sends Medic crashing to the canvas. Having shown vulnerability in recent contests, including a 31-second knockout loss to Punahele Soriano, and a near-knockout loss early before rallying his last time out against Gilbert Urbina, expect Salikhov to take advantage of his opponent’s suspect chin, flooring him with a heavy shot that forces the referee to end the fight.
Bank on Salikhov to earn the knockout victory, sending Medic to the medics as he earns his fourth consecutive victory, continuing to compete at an elite level into his 40s.
Prediction: Salikhov by KO/TKO/DQ (+229 @ TonyBet)
Matt Schnell vs. Joseph Morales
Best Odds on Schnell to Win: +320 (TonyBet)
Best Odds on Morales to Win: -333 (BetVictor)
In the co-main event of UFC Vegas 111, we’ve got an intriguing clash between two of the top flyweight grapplers in the UFC as Matt “Danger” Schnell takes on Joseph “Bopo” Morales.
While Morales is riding high in his return to the UFC, having captured the coveted UFC contract after winning season 33 of the Ultimate Fighter at UFC 319. Even at his best, with momentum firmly behind him, in a clash between battle-tested veterans, I like the heavy underdog Schnell to pull off the upset.
After going through a rough patch in recent years, Schnell put an end to his three-fight losing skid with a unanimous decision victory over Jimmy Flick in his last trip to the Octagon. With excellent striking skills, as well as a deep bag of dangerous submissions, Schnell certainly lives up to his moniker. While Morales is a technically sound, methodical grappler, he has yet to share the cage with a fighter of Schnell’s ability, aside from a knockout loss suffered against Devison Figueiredo back in 2018.
Having gone toe-to-toe with the best fighters in the flyweight division today, such as Steve Erceg, Brandon Royval, and current Champion Alexandre Pantoja, it takes elite talent to get the better of Schnell.
Look for Schnell to have an answer to each of Morales’s grappling attacks, utilizing unique sweeps and counters to reverse position and get himself into the driver’s seat. Additionally, whenever the fight is standing, Schnell is easily the superior striker, allowing him to keep his distance while still laying on damage throughout the fight.
In a rare sight for both competitors, look for this fight to go the distance, as Schnell pulls ahead on the judges scorecards, cashing at a whopping +1300 to your bankroll at UFC Vegas 111.
Prediction: Schnell to Win by DEC (+1300 @ TonyBet)
Gabriel Bonfim vs. Randy Brown
Best Odds on Bonfim to Win: -175 (bet365)
Best Odds on Brown to Win: +150 (Sports Interaction)
Capping off the evening with a thriller between budding contenders at 170 lbs, look for Randy “Rudeboy” Brown to put an end to the winning streak of Gabriel “Marretinha” Bonfim in the main event of UFC Vegas 111.
While the younger of the Bonfim brothers has found great success in his short tenure with the UFC thus far, including wins over Stephen Thompson and Khaos Williams, he has shown similar holes in his game to his older brother. Cardio has been a major issue for the Brazilian fighter, with his most recent bout against Wonderboy and his lone career loss against Nicholas Dalby exemplifying this area of weakness.
Taking on a sensational athlete in Jamaica’s Randy Brown, expect to see Rudeboy apply pressure early, forcing Bonfim to exert ample energy, and draining him in the later stages of their five-round main event fight. After a few rounds of grueling action, look for Brown to turn up his output, landing damaging shots repeatedly before ending the fight with a nasty knockout blow.
End off your UFC Vegas 111 bets with a big win, back Rudeboy Brown to take care of business in the biggest fight of his career to date, notching his third knockout victory in five fights, and asserting himself as a top contender in the welterweight division.
Prediction: Brown to Win by KO/TKO/DQ (+420 @ TonyBet)
UFC Vegas 111 Prelim Picks
- McVey by KO
- Marcos by DEC (+100)
- Pennington by DEC (+200)
- Hokit by KO (-120)
- Bueno Silva by DEC (+400)
- Simon by DEC (+125)
- Amil by DEC (+333)