Thursday’s eight-game NHL card offers a number of intriguing anytime goal-scorer bets, and a good chance to throw a dart on an anytime goal-scorer parlay. Each of our three selections for March 5 appear to provide standalone value, and they’re worth backing as a long-shot parlay at +1613 odds at the best NHL betting sites.
Anytime goal-scorer bets are among the most exciting bets available in any sport. The rush of hitting a long shot goal-scorer is hard to match, but even the NHL’s top scorers are less than 50% likely to score on average, and it is a volatile market subject to randomness, so as always, we do recommend staying within your means. Regardless of the score, any uncashed goal-scorer bet is still live to win, while hitting this type of wager early in any matchup is also extremely satisfying.
Nick’s AGS parlay
Auston Matthews: +135
This was the losing leg from Wednesday’s same game parlay on the Toronto Maple Leafs matchup versus New Jersey Devils, but I’m willing to go back to the well Thursday, after Matthews once again generated plenty of chances while playing in a new role alongside William Nylander.
Over the last two games, Matthews has generated 1.93 individual expected goals from 14 shots on target and 20 attempts on target. He’s played alongside Nylander in both of those matchups, which places him in a more offensive role, and should help him snap his lengthy nine-game goal drought.
It’s important to note that we do not like this prop based on the belief that Matthews is “due”, but based on the belief that his chance creation in his new role should help him score often enough to provide value with prices now in the +135 range, after being at close to even money for the majority of the last several seasons.
Matthews might not be the skater he once was, but he is still a career 15% shooter. If he’s pouring 10 attempts on goal per game, the dam is going to burst soon.
It doesn’t seem likely that Thursday’s relatively meaningless matchup versus the New York Rangers will be a defensive masterclass from either side. The Rangers have allowed 3.50 goals against per game and 3.86 xGA/60 over the last 10 matchups, and both teams are simply playing out the season at this point.
Kirill Marchenko: +170
The Columbus Blue Jackets have played to a record of 12-2-1 under head coach Rick Bowness, and it’s no surprise that in that span the team’s best pure goal-scorer has been in strong form when available with six goals and 14 points in 13 games.
Perhaps it’s the market he plays in or having a potential Norris Trophy winner in Zach Werenski on the team, but Marchenko still seems to be a highly underrated skater. He’s an elite shooter and is a quietly strong play-driver whose even-strength units have outscored the opposition quite heavily over the last two seasons.
Columbus’ current top line of Marchenko, Mason Marchment, and Adam Fantilli has scored 4.27 goals per 60 and has outscored opponents 14-8 across 196.9 minutes of play. Marchenko has scored on just over 14% of shots taken over the last two seasons, and his strong finishing ability should continue to shine through given his current role on a highly effective top line.
A matchup on home ice versus the Florida Panthers, who have seemingly waived the white flag on this season, offers Marchenko a good chance to stay hot. The Panthers are 2-8-0 over the last 10 games and have allowed 4.00 goals against per game.
Artemi Panarin: +170
The Los Angeles Kings GM made a very logical decision earlier in the week in opting to relieve head coach Jim Hiller of his duties. While the Kings may never have been an offensive powerhouse under any head coach this season, Hiller’s dated tactics and questionable skater usage had certainly hurt the team’s ability to generate anything meaningful.
Thursday’s matchup versus the New York Islanders offers an excellent opportunity for the team to get right as they attempt to avoid a surprising playoff absence. The Islanders played versus the Anaheim Ducks on Wednesday, while the Kings have been resting since Monday’s loss versus the Colorado Avalanche.
Panarin has not yet scored his first goal with the Kings, but his offensive play has looked on par with what we are used to seeing, and three points in four games probably undersells what he’s accomplished on that front. He will line up on what should be a solid top line alongside Adrian Kempe and Anze Kopitar in Thursday’s matchup, and interim head coach D.J. Smith should be able to use last change to cherry-pick some favourable matchups for the unit.
While Panarin has only put up 19 goals in 55 games this season, the Rangers are also highly unconvincing from an offensive perspective, and there’s an argument to be made that for as awful as the Kings were offensively under Hiller, Panarin is still in a better role now playing alongside Kempe and Kopitar than he typically was in New York.
This seems to be a good situation for the Kings’ newly-formed top line to have a productive evening, and I’m liking a price of +170 for Panarin to record his first goal with his new side.
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