As MLB spring training continues in Arizona and Florida, the AL Central could be one of the weaker in divisions in baseball this year, with the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals likely to be the only two playoff contenders boasting respectable season win totals.
Let’s take a look at the season win total projections for each of the five teams in the AL Central and their associated betting odds at bet365 in an attempt to reveal some value bets.
Related: AL East season win total picks
Detroit Tigers (over/under 85.5 wins)
FanGraphs projection: 85 wins
PECOTA projection: 83.4 wins
All of the talk in Tigers camp this spring is surrounding the future of staff ace Tarik Skubal, who will be a free agent at the conclusion of the 2026 season. As the days go by, it’s looking more and more likely that this will be the two-time Cy Young Award winner’s last season in Detroit.
The two sides failed to negotiate a contract extension ahead of the spring, and also endured an ugly arbitration hearing in which Skubal was awarded a record-breaking $32 million salary for this season. Detroit attempted to low-ball Skubal with a $19 million offer, which obviously didn’t sit well with one of the best pitchers in baseball.
Skubal’s contract situation puts Detroit in a position to move all its chips into the middle of the table for a World Series push. The front office bulked up the roster this winter, adding pitchers Framber Valdez and Kenley Jansen, while also reuniting with veteran righty Justin Verlander. Kyle Finnegan and Gleyber Torres were also re-signed, so this roster looks pretty good on paper as the frontrunners in a relatively weak division.
Pick: over 85.5 wins (-115)
The Tigers boast one of the best starting rotations in baseball if everyone can stay healthy. They have enough talent positionally to push for 90 wins. Back the Tigers to record 86 or more wins.
Tigers over 85.5 wins
Kansas City Royals (over/under 82.5 wins)
FanGraphs Projection: 81 wins
PECOTA Projection: 85.1 wins
Coming off an 82-win season, the Royals will be banking on a handful of players making internal strides to remain competitive in 2026. Led by superstar shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., the Royals hope they have another budding star in outfielder Jac Caglianone, who got his feet wet at the major league level last season and hopes he can break out in 2026 as a top prospect.
Kansas City quietly overhauled its roster over the winter, bringing in left-hander Matt Strahm, outfielder Lane Thomas, and right-hander Alex Lange, among several other moves. Competing on a budget is always the mantra for this squad, which boasts a solid pitching staff from top to bottom that should help keep the team competitive. But will there be enough offence?
The PECOTA projection system has the Royals winning the division over the Tigers, while FanGraphs has them finishing exactly at .500.
Pick: Under 82.5 wins (-115)
I believe this season win total is set just right at 82.5, and it wouldn’t surprise me if the Royals battle with this number all the way to game 162. There are better bets on the board across the league, so I wouldn’t blame you for skipping this season win total in favour of some more value elsewhere.
Cleveland Guardians (over/under 78.5 wins)
FanGraphs Projection: 76 wins
PECOTA Projection: 75.5 wins
The Guardians seemingly always find a way to exceed their expectations year after year despite not looking great on paper. They will attempt to do it again in 2026.
A year removed from 88 wins, the Guardians once again have an unheralded roster aside from All-Star third baseman Jose Ramirez and outfielder Steven Kwan. However, they do boast one of the top farm systems in the majors, with seven prospects inside the top-100 list at ESPN.
Both projection systems are predicting the Guardians to fall short of 78.5 wins, but how can we bet against a proven historical underdog like Cleveland?
Pick: over 78.5 wins (-130)
Somehow, someway, the Guardians will find a way to be competitive and hover near the .500 mark towards the end of September.
Guardians over 78.5 wins
Minnesota Twins (over/under 72.5 wins)
FanGraphs Projection: 79 wins
PECOTA Projections: 78.5 wins
The Twins fell off with a 70-win season a year ago and oddsmakers aren’t optimistic that they’ll turn things around in 2026.
Firstly, they already have major injury issues with their starting rotation, as Pablo Lopez underwent elbow surgery and Joe Ryan is battling back inflammation. David Festa, another starting pitching candidate this season, is also dealing with a shoulder injury. Not an ideal way to kick off the spring.
Offensively, the team brought in first baseman Josh Bell hoping he can bring some thunder to the lineup, which will once again rely on oft-injured stars Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis.
Despite the team’s injury woes, both projection systems believe this ball club will be closer to .500 than 72 or 73 wins.
Pick: Under 72.5 wins (-105)
There’s already some bad mojo around this team and that’s not good news considering the extensive injury history of their key players. This will end up being a retooling year for the Twins, who will be forced to make some tough decisions regarding their players with expiring contracts and veterans on the roster.
Chicago White Sox (over/under 66.5 wins)
FanGraphs Projection: 69 wins
PECOTA Projection: 69.3 wins
The rebuilding White Sox are once again expected to be in the basement of the division, but both projection systems are anticipating them to be better than oddsmakers suggest.
The signing of Munetaka Murakami this offseason came as a bit of a surprise given the team’s rebuilding stance, but he should provide some high upside at the hot corner and certainly help stabilize the squad offensively.
This team opened with a win total around 63.5 last fall, and that number has been continually rising at most online sportsbooks as we draw closer to Opening Day. In fact, the White Sox are one of the most popular “over” bets on season win totals at most online sportsbooks, including BetMGM.
Pick: Over 66.5 wins (-130)
Hopefully, you’ve already grabbed the over on this market earlier this winter at a better number, but there’s still value here at 66.5 wins. The White Sox have no pressure to contend this season, and that should allow their young players to develop and flourish. This team should be better than expected, pushing closer to 70 wins as the models suggest.